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The Waratahs Berrick Barnes kicks the ball against the Sharks during their Super 14 rugby match in Sydney on Saturday, March 7, 2010. AAP Image/Paul Miller.
Round 8 of the Super 14 tournament, with several upsets and thrilling matches, confirmed the NSW Waratahs as strong finals contenders, with the Reds and the ACT Brumbies still in the frame with a good chance.
For the Brumbies and the Reds, especially, their chances will depend on how strongly teams like the Blues and Chiefs perform. We are getting to the stage in the tournament where teams with the momentum of a well-delivered bowling ball can skittle other pretenders like pins on an alley.
The Waratahs were the only top four side to gain a bonus-point victory. This has given them crucial momentum, while the Crusaders drew (luckily) with the Hurricanes, and the Bulls and Stormers went down to the Blues and the Western Force.
The Waratahs, though, along with the Hurricanes (who have no chance of making the finals in my view) are the only teams in the top nine of the table with a bye to come. So the other contenders have a pool of 30 points available to them while the Waratahs and Hurricanes have only 25 points.
So the Crusaders – Waratahs match at Christchurch on Saturday becomes a crucial match for both sides. The Crusaders haven’t really impressed this year as being as formidable as in the past. Perhaps they are playing Richie McCaw out of position at number 6. The centre pairing, too, is relatively inexperienced.
I also believe they made a selection mistake in playing Colin Slade, a slightly-built, highly-skilled, fast player at fullback, rather than the direct and burly Jared Payne. They did this, as well, against the Reds when they were monstered at Brisbane early on in the season.
But the Crusaders win most of their matches at home, well over 70 per cent, an average that takes into account the first two disastrous years of the Crusaders.
The home ground advantage seemed to work for the Blues against the Bulls, who amazingly have lost nine straight matches at Eden Park. Their match against the Stormers at home shapes up as a defining match for both sides.
The Blues have to win to maintain their charge into the finals. They played magnificently against the Bulls in a match that had the tough quality of a Test match. But there were still many brain explosions by Blues backs, the worst of which was a Stephen Brett chip kick from in front of his posts just after the Blues had scrambled their way into a lead.
The Bulls play the Chiefs at Hamilton and their rolling maul game (which the Blues did not so much nullify as explode to smithereens) should be too much for a team that has a huge number 8 who chip kicks rather than smashes into his opponents.
Some readers of The Roar have taken me to task for attacking the brain dead play of many of the New Zealand teams. But surely this example will prove my point: Brendon Leonard, the Chiefs halfback, was told by the referee, twice, to correct his crooked put-ins to the scrum. So what does he do after this explicit warning? Put the ball in under the feet of his second-rower.
It defies intelligence that the commentators in New Zealand are still talking Leonard as an All Black halfback. In my opinion, the two best halves in New Zealand are Alby Mathewson and the Crusaders’ back-up, the Auckland-born Kahn Fotuali’i.
If you look at the points table, the problem for the Brumbies becomes obvious. They have won 7 out of their 5 matches but are on 21 points, the same as the Chiefs who have won only 4 matches. The Chiefs, though, have collected 5 bonus points, while the Brumbies have picked up the grand total of 1 bonus point.
Where is the famed Brumbies attacking style led by Matt Giteau in all of this?
The Brumbies, though, should pick up 5 points from a victory with more than four tries against the pathetic, garish Cheetahs.
Similarly, the Reds play the Lions at Johannesburg, another match that should provide them with 5 points on the table.
Just a couple of points, in conclusion, about the Waratahs:
When Al Baxter was announced as playing his 100th Super Rugby match I wrote in the notebook: ‘A 100 Super Rugby caps for Al Baxter and about a 1000 collapsed scrums.’ And sure enough the scrums collapsed on his side several times during the match.
Is there a worse halfback in Super Rugby than Luke Burgess? I know he made a great catch from a high ball but his passing was terrible and one of the forwards is going to be severely injured from his tendency to run across the field and then deliver a hospital pass to a forward who the defence has lined up to smash.
Every Waratahs supporter should keep their fingers crossed that Rob Horne stays fit. While he makes his sniping runs and gets behind the defensive line on every carry, the Waratahs are a chance to beat any team.
And finally, are the Waratahs fit enough? Most of their matches this season they’ve started strongly and then slipped off their game. Against the hapless Cheetahs the Waratahs won the second half by only 17 – 14.