Australia’s Socceroos World Cup players, Tim Cahill, Lucas Neill and Harry Kewell pose for team photo in Melbourne, Australia, Wednesday, May 19, 2010. AP Photo/Andrew Brownbill.
Having to face Germany in the opening group game at the World Cup could be the fatal blow to Australia’s World Cup campaign. Should they suffer a heavy defeat, it could well be tournament over. Or, and it’s a big or, it could be the fixture that sets up progression to the knockout stages.
Sounds dramatic, but in a group as competitive and evenly matched as Group D, the fact that Australia faces the strongest team in the group first up puts them at an immediate disadvantage to Serbia and Ghana.
Germany are World Cup masters, and their successful tournaments are built on lightening starts and easing through the group by guaranteeing progression as early as possible.
They’ve scored 19 goals in their opening matches over the last five World Cups, so on paper the Socceroos are on course for a thumping. Speaking to many fans in the lead up to the tournament, many are resigned to the fact we’ll go down.
Germany are our Brazil of four years ago, they say, believing we can afford to drop points to them as long as we maximise our output versus Ghana and Serbia.
Pim Verbeek has told the press this week that the Socceroos will need five points to guarantee progression, one more than was enough in Germany 2006.
His argument is that there’s no weakling in the group, so each team can take a result against the rest.
So, where can they get the five?
It suggests Pim believes a draw against Germany is possible, with one win and two draws likely to guarantee progression no matter what happens in the other games.
But going through undefeated in this type of group is optimistic at best.
If Australia loses to Germany, as expected, then the Socceroos must chase the group, with victory against Ghana becoming imperative and a draw against Serbia still failing to reach Pim’s goal of five points.
Considering their attacking weakness, particularly if Harry Kewell isn’t featuring, can Australia produce an attacking performance and chase and win games against teams as talented as Ghana and Serbia?
It remains to be seen.
Whatever happens against Germany, Australia needs to hope Ghana and Serbia draw in their opening game, so neither side gets away from the Socceroos, or, if someone has to win, we should hope it’s Serbia.
Ghana has the advantage of facing Germany last, and the danger of Germany steamrolling past Australia and Serbia in their opening two matches is that they can afford to lift off and rest key players in their final group game against the Africans (as great tournament teams can afford to do), giving Ghana a distinct advantage over Serbia and Australia in the battle for second.
Every permutation you consider must factor in the strength of the Germans over the rest, even without Michael Ballack, so assuming they have qualified after their first two games, Ghana have this advantage with Serbia and Australia left as outsiders, particularly if Ghana defeat Serbia.
Considering this, taking something out Germany should be considered a necessity for the Socceroos.
By taking something out of Germany, it forces the Germans to attack the remainder of the games, making them even more of a threat against Serbia and Ghana.
And we haven’t even considered goal difference. Considering our weakness and lack of depth up front, this could well cost us if we are on equal points at the group’s conclusion.
Again, considering this deficiency we have compared to our rivals, the Socceroos need to negate this with a result against Germany.
Openers are crucial in World Cups, as know all too well.
Four years ago, the Socceroos came from behind against Japan to set up progression from the group. It meant they could afford to lose to Brazil and only needed a draw against Croatia, with four points enough to reach the knockout stages. It was the good fortune of the draw that we faced the easiest team in the group first, and our direct opponents for second spot in the final match when we knew the result needed against them.
The momentum and self-belief from the victory against Japan carried the Socceroos through the tournament.
In fact, you could well argue it was the tsunami of emotion that started against Uruguay just over six months before the World Cup started that carried the team throughout the tournament.
This time round there has been no such emotional wave, with World Cup qualification sealed a year before the tournament with little fanfare, and we head into this World Cup with a less experienced coach (a less tactically adept coach, it could well be argued), a weaker squad, a tougher group and a much tougher opening fixture.
It’s quite a contrast in so many ways.
A result against Germany is the spark the Socceroos desperately need to rediscover the spirit of 2005-06 and set themselves up in the group.
If they do fall to Germany, we have to ask if the current Socceroos, with all those deficiencies compared to the ’06 squad, have the mental strength to defeat both Ghana and Serbia to pass the five-point mark Pim has set for them and surpass their World Cup record of one win and a draw.
Again, this is a tall order, just as a result against Germany is a big ask.
The Socceroos were dealt the most difficult and complete group in the World Cup draw, and the added challenge of facing the strongest team in the opener.
A result against Germany is imperative for the Socceroos, so we need to start believing it is possible.
John
Guest
No only the tv ratings but the world fifa rankings will takee a major hit, probably drop to the 40's. One more lose in the prelims will take it into the 50's for sure!
John
Guest
I am a NZ but follow the socceroes with my kids when NZ not involved. Watching the NZ game the other night... there are many facets of the socceroes game which need to be addressed. Germany and what it represents in terms of a win is important but without a good formation, and ideas about how to use what we have against any team and getting the best out of the team on any day and with any team and getting a harmonised and well balanced team working together is key....all is meaningless. At present and based on the nZ game we have a bunch of players who appear to be caught up an expecations that the 2006 magic lingers on and passes on from era to another and that will take them anywhere....... it really looks al over the place.........and all over the floor from my simple obsersations. The fcat NZ played well and exposed many gaps is a sign something is not right........
Exactly
Guest
We are jumping at shadows being worried. I hope the Socceroos' camp is not as bad as the Australian press and so called soccer heads in this country or we'll go down 10 - 0. It is not 1954, 1974 or the days when we were amateurs. We are fully pro and we are up there with this lot. Bring 'em on!
Ghost
Guest
Silly ignorant comment. I watched 2 games on Saturday night - the English Championship playoff and the UCL final. Both decided in regular time and 7 goals scored between them. And I believe around the world the average goals per game across all big leagues is around 2.5. Those kind of figures are quite alright by me. Bigger goalkeepers have been offset by better strikers and midfielders. So the goal size is just fine. Making the goals bigger would destroy the game, football would be reduced to one of those 'pot-shot' affairs like basketball and AFL. Anyway just wait a couple of months and you will be able to do your own stats on goal scoring in South Africa. My bet is that the number of nil-nils will be very small. Probably less than 10 games out of the 70+ played.
Ghost
Guest
Was anyone else watching the German internationals on show in the UCL final and came away not so impressed? Lahm did not penetrate very often on his wing, and you could barely assess that Shweinsteiger had control of the midfield areas. Klose also did nothing in that final period once he was substituted on. Bayern's only real penetration was through Robben. I'm not suggesting that the Socceroos are as good as Inter Milan though, especially not as good at structured, disciplined defence... but still I was interested to see the performance.
Australian Football
Roar Guru
Care to put up a link to substantiate your claim.
dippa666
Guest
I can't see the German team or the German public accepting a draw against Australia. They have already written us off as easybeats, therefore anything less than a 2 goal German victory will be seen as an underperformance in their eyes.
Moonface
Roar Guru
Even if we beat Germany, its still not a guarantee to get to the knockout stage, especially if we lose the next two.
Galloping Guru
Guest
To concede more than 3 goals would in my opinion probably be match fixing, has been going on in European soccer for awhile now. Thy really should make the goals bigger as the average size/height of goalkeepers has been going up, its just a matter of time before they do. It may stop the penallty shootout that will probably occur in South Africa at the end of the wc final that ends in a nill all draw.
Galloping Guru
Guest
Seriously whats handegg ?, and how did you arrive at that name ?. Seems awfully childish.
Moonface
Roar Guru
person, I think ItsCalledFootball is pulling the proverbial leg to get a reaction from forgettheafl . . .
Bludger
Guest
Germany is struggling, so do not be surprised if we do well in Durban. Germany is still over confident(typical) even though their strikers are impotent and their playmaker is gone.
matty1974
Guest
Forgetmenot is obviously trolling, however for the record, Australia has not lost by three goals since since 2001 (in Montevideo), almost a decade ago. With a first choice line up, Australia has conceded more than 1 goal on just one occasion since the 2007 Asian Cup. We will not lose to anyone 3-0 in South Africa.
James
Guest
How is suggesting the Socceroos can get something out of Germany bashing them? Let's be realistic. We won't go through undefeated, as Pim as suggested with his 5 points comment. It's going to be a coin toss.
Mick
Guest
AGGHHH!!!! Again with the NAYSAYERS!!!! Adrian, you got it wrong about the Fury, and you've got it wrong against the Socceroos too. You may think that being 'realistic' makes you fell all high and mighty as if you know what's best, but the reality is no-one knows and you can be sure that every Socceroo will do their best to prove you and every other doubter wrong on the field against Germany. MARK MY WORDS WE WILL GET PAST THE GROUP STAGE. STOP BASHING THE SOCCEROOS!!!
Aldershot
Guest
Before the 2006 world cup? Don't you mean before the Great Depression?
person
Guest
incredibly pessimistic, and not true at all.. football fans are far more resilient than that, and even if we're thrashed by germany, the game against ghana will still be as important.. the growth of the game in australia will not be effected.. the growth of the game is linked to our massive player base.. not a one off match against a team which is by all rights far superior to our own, and expected by most to win
person
Guest
what a load of rubbish
whiskeymac
Guest
yeah nice article Adrian. think positive (and maybe naively) and a result against Germany is possible (remote but stranger things have happened) and to state the obvious, would be brilliant. Such a big name and pedigree there. So part of me wld be happy to beat them, and just beat them,warped logic maybe. (oh ok and draw the next two of course) why? because it would be an impressive scalp and memorable (not quite in the same way as the Senegal upset or Cameroon upset of past WC's but wld still be a memorable outcome) which wld add a lot of kudos to the team and reputation for some time, people like the big upsets and despite the 2006 tourno we only beat Japan (no disrespect but you know what i mean) - if we beat someone like Germany, Italy, France, Argies etc then it is remembered by others for a lot longer. the boys will know this and be up for it. it's a time for them to be counted and this is a great way to make their legacy on this tournament. furthermore getting a result against the Germans wld make the Germans more determined to get results against the others.... imagine a pressure game in the last round and you had to play a fired up German squad. no thanks. and the boost to moral for the roos, the added pressure on the other teams... and if they do get out of the group then the roos have the potential tie with England - which wld be a ratings boost, more chance for sporting glory. i mean there are glories just being in a WC, but there are great glories in beating a big name team. of course serbia and ghana will be of the same mind. as an aside to the nay saying post WC i note that the FFA is lining up some reasonable internationals over the next year or so - including potentially a game against England. am sure that wld help boost some interest, espec if they can secure that fixture (touted to be in Oz).
ItsCalledFootball
Roar Guru
If the Socceroos don't beat Germany, the A-League will fold owing millions and all the Sydney FC players will join up with the GWS Handegg team.