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Australia's Socceroos World Cup players, Tim Cahill, Lucas Neill and Harry Kewell pose for team photo in Melbourne, Australia, Wednesday, May 19, 2010. AP Photo/Andrew Brownbill.
Having to face Germany in the opening group game at the World Cup could be the fatal blow to Australia’s World Cup campaign. Should they suffer a heavy defeat, it could well be tournament over. Or, and it’s a big or, it could be the fixture that sets up progression to the knockout stages.
Sounds dramatic, but in a group as competitive and evenly matched as Group D, the fact that Australia faces the strongest team in the group first up puts them at an immediate disadvantage to Serbia and Ghana.
Germany are World Cup masters, and their successful tournaments are built on lightening starts and easing through the group by guaranteeing progression as early as possible.
They’ve scored 19 goals in their opening matches over the last five World Cups, so on paper the Socceroos are on course for a thumping. Speaking to many fans in the lead up to the tournament, many are resigned to the fact we’ll go down.
Germany are our Brazil of four years ago, they say, believing we can afford to drop points to them as long as we maximise our output versus Ghana and Serbia.
Pim Verbeek has told the press this week that the Socceroos will need five points to guarantee progression, one more than was enough in Germany 2006.
His argument is that there’s no weakling in the group, so each team can take a result against the rest.
So, where can they get the five?
It suggests Pim believes a draw against Germany is possible, with one win and two draws likely to guarantee progression no matter what happens in the other games.
But going through undefeated in this type of group is optimistic at best.
If Australia loses to Germany, as expected, then the Socceroos must chase the group, with victory against Ghana becoming imperative and a draw against Serbia still failing to reach Pim’s goal of five points.
Considering their attacking weakness, particularly if Harry Kewell isn’t featuring, can Australia produce an attacking performance and chase and win games against teams as talented as Ghana and Serbia?
It remains to be seen.
Whatever happens against Germany, Australia needs to hope Ghana and Serbia draw in their opening game, so neither side gets away from the Socceroos, or, if someone has to win, we should hope it’s Serbia.
Ghana has the advantage of facing Germany last, and the danger of Germany steamrolling past Australia and Serbia in their opening two matches is that they can afford to lift off and rest key players in their final group game against the Africans (as great tournament teams can afford to do), giving Ghana a distinct advantage over Serbia and Australia in the battle for second.
Every permutation you consider must factor in the strength of the Germans over the rest, even without Michael Ballack, so assuming they have qualified after their first two games, Ghana have this advantage with Serbia and Australia left as outsiders, particularly if Ghana defeat Serbia.
Considering this, taking something out Germany should be considered a necessity for the Socceroos.
By taking something out of Germany, it forces the Germans to attack the remainder of the games, making them even more of a threat against Serbia and Ghana.
And we haven’t even considered goal difference. Considering our weakness and lack of depth up front, this could well cost us if we are on equal points at the group’s conclusion.
Again, considering this deficiency we have compared to our rivals, the Socceroos need to negate this with a result against Germany.
Openers are crucial in World Cups, as know all too well.
Four years ago, the Socceroos came from behind against Japan to set up progression from the group. It meant they could afford to lose to Brazil and only needed a draw against Croatia, with four points enough to reach the knockout stages. It was the good fortune of the draw that we faced the easiest team in the group first, and our direct opponents for second spot in the final match when we knew the result needed against them.
The momentum and self-belief from the victory against Japan carried the Socceroos through the tournament.
In fact, you could well argue it was the tsunami of emotion that started against Uruguay just over six months before the World Cup started that carried the team throughout the tournament.
This time round there has been no such emotional wave, with World Cup qualification sealed a year before the tournament with little fanfare, and we head into this World Cup with a less experienced coach (a less tactically adept coach, it could well be argued), a weaker squad, a tougher group and a much tougher opening fixture.
It’s quite a contrast in so many ways.
A result against Germany is the spark the Socceroos desperately need to rediscover the spirit of 2005-06 and set themselves up in the group.
If they do fall to Germany, we have to ask if the current Socceroos, with all those deficiencies compared to the ’06 squad, have the mental strength to defeat both Ghana and Serbia to pass the five-point mark Pim has set for them and surpass their World Cup record of one win and a draw.
Again, this is a tall order, just as a result against Germany is a big ask.
The Socceroos were dealt the most difficult and complete group in the World Cup draw, and the added challenge of facing the strongest team in the opener.
A result against Germany is imperative for the Socceroos, so we need to start believing it is possible.