Last week Lance Armstrong announced that this would be his final Tour. It’s hard to write off such a great champion, however it’s my opinion that Lance can’t win and, according to Greg LeMond, he may even struggle to cross the border.
After typing the words “Lance can’t win”, thoughts of the seven-time champion stomping his way up the Tourmalet to victory gave me goose bumps.
The truth is anything is possible, especially when you’re Lance Armstrong. However, since his retirement and subsequent comeback, cycling has changed considerably, and these changes have proved difficult for the 38 year old to adapt to.
During his time away, Lance undertook many different sports that obviously didn’t contribute to the slight ghastly figure needed in order to survive over six hours in the saddle for 21 days.
Armstrong’s beach muscles have taken a significant amount of work to decimate. Despite the amount of work he’s done to reduce the bulk, he still remains larger than climbing sensations Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador.
This bulk was once considered a benefit for time trialling, although these kids with emaciated physiques have now found a way to do that also.
Lance’s preparation has always been spot on come July; rarely did he come to the Tour underdone. On the one occasion he did, it was fortunate that so too did arch rival Jan Ullrich.
Armstrong has been somewhat consistent this season, building on his form of 2009 and finishing on the podium in the Tour of Luxembourg and Tour de Suisse.
The one hiccup coming during the Tour of California when he crashed, which forced him to pull out. Strangely, that crash happened the morning after Floyd Landis’ allegations that Armstrong had introduced him to doping and bribed labs in France to ignore the results of his positive test to EPO.
Armstrong vehemently denies the claims and has rarely looked concerned after being accused countless times of doping, however he did seem rattled on this one occasion, and many are now wondering what revelations are going to surface during this Tour.
Perhaps the constant scrutiny is getting to him? Maybe the allegations are real?
One can only assume Armstrong is innocent, especially after Landis’ credibility is worth about as much as a garbage truck full of Zimbabwean currency.
Like I have said, cycling has changed considerably since Armstrong’s comeback.
All general classification contenders must possess the ability to time trial – which was Armstrong’s bread and butter – however adding the incredibly powerful surges needed to shake rivals on the steeper mountain passes is something the younger brigade have perfected.
Contador and Schleck most notably have the ability to shift into seventh gear, which places rivals in the passenger seat, with no choice other than to hang on for dear life.
Lance changed bike racing much like the way Michael Jordan changed basketball, however the sport has since progressed, and the younger generation seemed to have added this extra element of power in the later parts of stages.
As usual, the Australian contingent will be strong; Cadel Evans will need to be patient after once again arriving with a team of substandard helpers in comparison to his main rivals. A podium spot is definitely on the agenda.
Michael Rogers has shown his form should be on point, with his most recent victory in the Tour of California a testament to his perseverance to get back to the top level after a broken collarbone and a severe bout of the Epstein Bar virus which cruelled his ’07 and ’08 campaigns.
Rogers, unlike Evans, arrives with a strong team, however he may struggle for help if his teammates are forced to lead out British sprinter Mark Cavendish.
Bradley Wiggins and Ivan Basso will also be in the mix, Wiggins is backed by the bottomless pit of money that is British sport. They make wise investments and obviously believe Wiggins is in with a chance.
Basso has proved his form is back to its best after serving a two-year suspension for doping. However, he may suffer after his big efforts in the Giro earlier this year.
I can’t help but ponder what legacy Armstrong now leaves us with. Before his comeback we were left with the lasting memory of a mechanical human being impervious to pain.
Was the comeback worth it?
I have a feeling that this Tour could surpass all the drama of all those of the past decade combined. I read an article earlier in the week in which former Tour champion Greg LeMond gave his Armstrong Tour prediction.
“Either he will not start or he will pull out just before the race enters France. I have a feeling that the world of cycling is about to change for the better,” said Greg.
Well, Lance started, and started well I might add. However, this type of statement cannot be ignored. What awaits over the next three weeks could effect everything you ever thought or believed to be true about Lance Armstrong.
Personally, I’d like to see LeMond shelve the axe he’s been grinding with Lance’s name on it for the past decade. Lance will finish, and finish well, but this is Contador’s Tour.
revopt
Roar Rookie
Looks like Lance has no chance. Would have been great for him to finish up with a win but doubt it was ever a realistic consideration.
jameswm
Guest
True Whiteline - we need some top notch athletes to give the great sport more publicity in Australia. His athletic heroes are Bolt of course (he's been so great for the sport), Steve Hooker and a 17yo kid from his school who is going to World Juniors for the 4 x 400. His favourite sport though is rugby - he's pretty handy at that. He was 2nd top try-scorer at the recent state tournament - playing up one age group - as a winger, though he normally plays 13 or 15. We'll see when he's about 15-16 what he wans to specialise in. Depends on the build post-puberty - middle distance running and rugby don't really mix after that age. Right now his best events are probably 400-800, though we don't really know how good he is at 800-1500 yet - he's still a novice at them. There are a few other freak athletes his age in NSW - including a couple of incredible 100 runners - 13.2 hand timed as 9/10 year olds (may have just turned 10). Just incredible. That was considered very quick for a 13yo when I was at school. Very tough age group!
Whiteline
Guest
James Good to get a bit of background - you were handy! Hopefully the young chap follows through as we need a few male athletes for Aust. Your point about Lance is valid. I guess I'm just hoping he is clean, just for the mystique of it all ,if nothing else.
Paddy Kilmurray
Roar Pro
Great ride by Cadel, but unfortunately his now high place on GC could be a negative. Cadel could find himself in the yellow jersey too soon, which will force his team to defend. I don't think BMC are strong enough to defend a yellow jersey for anything longer than a couple of days. It's great he has a time gap on Contador, however, what would be perfect for Cadel is for a large breakaway to gain a considerable amount of time on a stage, and for a team like AG2R to hold it for several days with the intention of only holding on for publicity e.g. Rinaldo Noccentini '09. For me, Contador is right where he needs him. Like I said, Cadel must stay patient and hope for some good fortune. Fingers crossed
Tom
Guest
I just used Bolt as an example of someone who is ridiculously ahead of his competition, not necessarily suggesting he is a doper. And as for Evans and Rogers, that is because they haven't had the success of Armstrong or Contador. Of course they will not attract the same suspicion. Mikel Astarloza didn't attract the same suspicion either, but he tested positive to EPO last year. He made one good break away in the Tour last year; that was all I had heard of him prior to the positive test. As I said, I find Armstrong's achievements dubious, but no more so than plenty of other athletes.
Jameswm
Guest
What a great day for Cadel: • Andy Schleck finished with the same time and is only 30 seconds behind Cadel overall, but he lost his main ally in the mountains, big brother Frank • Armstrong lost 2:08 to Cadel, and is now 1:51 behind Cadel and 50” behind Contador. I can’t see how Lance can take time off Contador in the mountains, where in theory Contador will be stronger. And I think they’re similar in the time trials. Armstrong has a lot of work to do to get back into it • Contador didn’t do too badly, but he’s 1.01 beind Cadel. Assuming Cadel can hold him in the time trials (or beat him), Contador will have to make up all that time in the mountains. Admittedly, one error in a summit finish and the time can blow out quickly. Contador will attack him and attack him, but might wait till the Pyrenees to do it. Maybe they’ll have a crack in the Alps first, which I think has two summit finishes. The Pyrenees has a summit finish in a HC climb! I wonder if Cadel will just wait to be attacked by the others or have a go himself this year. Shame about Michael Rogers though – bummer of a day for him. So the standings among the real GC contenders look like this: Cadel Evans 1st Andy Schleck – 30” behind Alexander Vinokourov – 52” behind Alberto Contador – 1:01 behind Dennis Menchov – 1:10 behind Bradley Wiggins – 1:10 behind Lance Armstrong – 1:51 behind Levi Leipheimer – 2:14 behind Michael Rogers – 2:21 behind Carlos Sastre – 2:40 behind Ivan Basso – 2:41 behind Popovych – 2:47 behind
Jameswm
Guest
I used to train with Tim "Jet" Jackson! He's my age - how did you know what "era" I ws from? Oh - you mean Capo's era? Dave Dworjanyn was very quick too - and lightning on the sand. I used to do Little As with him as a kid. There were queries over Tim Jackson too, because he had a big chest, but he was always built like that. Our squad was very naive! My best over 100 was 10.9 hand timed. Not bad. I was a decathlete - 2m+ high jumper, 7m+ long jumper, very good at hurdles and 400 (and 1500 for a decathlete). Shot Putt was my worst event. I've got a 10yo son who is a dead set freak runner - top handful (or better) in the state for every track event from 70m to 2km cross country - on the track he can run about 6:40-50 for a 2km - if that means anything to you. I was never good enough at one of them to specialise - hence doing the decathlon. No one knows for sure about the dpoing - but there have to be very big question marks over Armstrong. I read the French papers and I thought they used to say they had eveidence. Why can't we go back and test all his samples from when he won, with the technology we have now? That's what Thorpie used to say - test me now, freeze it, and in 10 years when the testing technology is better, test them again so you know I'm clean. Armstrong refused to consent to this from memory. Why would he do that if he really was clean?
Whiteline
Guest
Jameswm The same can be said for Armstrong - he was a world champion like Evans and Rogers but when he was in his early 20s. Because he has won so often and against the odds obviously increases the suspicion. If Evans and Rogers are competing with everyone else (including Armstrong) then based on your rationale, they are potential dopers as well - how else can they keep up? So how quick were you James? The best Australian 100m athlete of that era was Tim Jackson. If not for injuries he may have run a legal 10 secs.
jameswm
Guest
Nah Tom. I come from an athletics background and I'm about the same age as Capobianco (a year or two older). Everyone knew he was juiced up because he got so much bigger so quickly, his improvements came so quickly and, well, a lot of those WA athletes were dubious. Bolt ran something like 19.90 for 200 as an 18yo. His improvements have been steady and in proportion and, therefore, believable. Not at all like FloJo who improved so rapidly at a later age. I think you can believe in Bolt. And there have never been question marks over Cadel Evans - or Michael Rogers.
Tom
Guest
I am suspicious of a lot of athletes. It seems odd to me that people are so critical of Armstrong, but in the same breath wax lyrical about the achievements of someone like Usain Bolt (for example). Sure, I think his achievements are somewhat dubious, but no more so than many other athletes who don't get anywhere near the same level of scrutiny. And as you point out, almost every one of his major competitors was done at some stage for doping violations.
Whiteline
Guest
James - there's more to Armstrong than cycling. The amount of money he has contributed through his foundation and name would take a lifetime to count. If it was just about cycling I wouldn't be even bothering with this thread.
Jameswm
Guest
There's been so much smoke, there has to be a fire. I don't see how you guys can admire a guy who most likely has cheated. Maybe you think the others all cheat too, making it a level playing field. I used to think he was a great athlete, but I'm sorry - how can any reasonable person not be extremely dubious as to what he has achieved?
Whiteline
Guest
I just hope Armstrong does win :-)
Jameswm
Guest
I just hope Armstrong doesn't win.
Paddy Kilmurray
Roar Pro
The Schlecks will have good support over the cobbles and have some experience riding them. When I say "some", I mean more than most of the GC contenders. They're certainly not gone, the cobbles could be disastrous for anyone.
Paddy Kilmurray
Roar Pro
He didn't lose any time, provided he's not injured he's still excuse-less.
Ken Bailey's Probation Officer
Guest
At least that big pileup means Cadel has a ready made excuse...
Hutchoman
Roar Pro
I agree that it looks like Schleck is gone. He'll lose time in all likelihood to the other GC contenders in the final TT which leaves him requiring two decisive victories in the mountains to get back in contention for top spot. That's a tall order, but I'd still have him in the top 3. On the topic of Armstrong v. Contador, obviously time will tell but it will be great to see these two square off properly without any of the team issues of last year to cloud the issue. Armstrong would seem to have the points on team strength, while Contador has the individual brilliance. Armstrong certainly has a show although Contador deserves the favouritism. For mine, it will still be Contador from Schleck and Armstrong come Paris with many of the chances you mention taking top 10 positions pending all the usual unforseens of a Grand Tour. As for Greg LeMond, even in his racing days he was apt to carry on about anything that would draw attention to his single biggest cause ... Greg LeMond!
Scott
Guest
"However, this type of statement cannot be ignored." Of course it can. It can be seen for the bitter, resentful, unsubstantiated drivel it is.
Tom
Guest
After his poor TT performance, I cannot see Andy Schleck winning it. For him, the only way he will win is by dropping Contador in the mountains, which seems unlikely. He will lose a big slab of time in the 50km TT. Armstrong is half a chance IMO. He was strong in the Tour of Switzerland and has shown that he has the form in the TT to potentially use it if he can't stay with Contador and Schleck over the mountains. Contador obviously has to be a very strong favourite, the only question being his team support in the mountains, but I get the impression he can win regardless. He has no major weakness. I would like to think Cadel and Micky Rogers have half a shot; both can climb and TT well, and both are in good form. As you say, the question is how focussed Columbia HTC are on Cavendish (not helped by Hansen's withdrawal last night), and what support BMC can give to Cadel.