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Last week Lance Armstrong announced that this would be his final Tour. It’s hard to write off such a great champion, however it’s my opinion that Lance can’t win and, according to Greg LeMond, he may even struggle to cross the border.
After typing the words “Lance can’t win”, thoughts of the seven-time champion stomping his way up the Tourmalet to victory gave me goose bumps.
The truth is anything is possible, especially when you’re Lance Armstrong. However, since his retirement and subsequent comeback, cycling has changed considerably, and these changes have proved difficult for the 38 year old to adapt to.
During his time away, Lance undertook many different sports that obviously didn’t contribute to the slight ghastly figure needed in order to survive over six hours in the saddle for 21 days.
Armstrong’s beach muscles have taken a significant amount of work to decimate. Despite the amount of work he’s done to reduce the bulk, he still remains larger than climbing sensations Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador.
This bulk was once considered a benefit for time trialling, although these kids with emaciated physiques have now found a way to do that also.
Lance’s preparation has always been spot on come July; rarely did he come to the Tour underdone. On the one occasion he did, it was fortunate that so too did arch rival Jan Ullrich.
Armstrong has been somewhat consistent this season, building on his form of 2009 and finishing on the podium in the Tour of Luxembourg and Tour de Suisse.
The one hiccup coming during the Tour of California when he crashed, which forced him to pull out. Strangely, that crash happened the morning after Floyd Landis’ allegations that Armstrong had introduced him to doping and bribed labs in France to ignore the results of his positive test to EPO.
Armstrong vehemently denies the claims and has rarely looked concerned after being accused countless times of doping, however he did seem rattled on this one occasion, and many are now wondering what revelations are going to surface during this Tour.
Perhaps the constant scrutiny is getting to him? Maybe the allegations are real?
One can only assume Armstrong is innocent, especially after Landis’ credibility is worth about as much as a garbage truck full of Zimbabwean currency.
Like I have said, cycling has changed considerably since Armstrong’s comeback.
All general classification contenders must possess the ability to time trial – which was Armstrong’s bread and butter – however adding the incredibly powerful surges needed to shake rivals on the steeper mountain passes is something the younger brigade have perfected.
Contador and Schleck most notably have the ability to shift into seventh gear, which places rivals in the passenger seat, with no choice other than to hang on for dear life.
Lance changed bike racing much like the way Michael Jordan changed basketball, however the sport has since progressed, and the younger generation seemed to have added this extra element of power in the later parts of stages.
As usual, the Australian contingent will be strong; Cadel Evans will need to be patient after once again arriving with a team of substandard helpers in comparison to his main rivals. A podium spot is definitely on the agenda.
Michael Rogers has shown his form should be on point, with his most recent victory in the Tour of California a testament to his perseverance to get back to the top level after a broken collarbone and a severe bout of the Epstein Bar virus which cruelled his ’07 and ’08 campaigns.
Rogers, unlike Evans, arrives with a strong team, however he may struggle for help if his teammates are forced to lead out British sprinter Mark Cavendish.
Bradley Wiggins and Ivan Basso will also be in the mix, Wiggins is backed by the bottomless pit of money that is British sport. They make wise investments and obviously believe Wiggins is in with a chance.
Basso has proved his form is back to its best after serving a two-year suspension for doping. However, he may suffer after his big efforts in the Giro earlier this year.
I can’t help but ponder what legacy Armstrong now leaves us with. Before his comeback we were left with the lasting memory of a mechanical human being impervious to pain.
Was the comeback worth it?
I have a feeling that this Tour could surpass all the drama of all those of the past decade combined. I read an article earlier in the week in which former Tour champion Greg LeMond gave his Armstrong Tour prediction.
“Either he will not start or he will pull out just before the race enters France. I have a feeling that the world of cycling is about to change for the better,” said Greg.
Well, Lance started, and started well I might add. However, this type of statement cannot be ignored. What awaits over the next three weeks could effect everything you ever thought or believed to be true about Lance Armstrong.
Personally, I’d like to see LeMond shelve the axe he’s been grinding with Lance’s name on it for the past decade. Lance will finish, and finish well, but this is Contador’s Tour.
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