Stephen Milne (R) and Nick Dal Santo (L) of St Kilda celebrate after the AFL 2nd Preliminary Final match between St Kilda Saints and the Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Images
This St Kilda side knows what it’s like to play in a Grand Final – they’re familiar with the game’s biggest stage. This St Kilda side also knows what it’s like to lose a Grand Final – something that can provide incredible motivation. As a result, an end to the club’s 44-year premiership drought tomorrow is very much on the cards.
Of course, the rampaging Collingwood will have other ideas. The Pies were comfortably the best team of the home and away season and looked sensational last week against Geelong.
But the experience of last year’s 12-point Grand Final loss can only benefit the Saints, as will a range of other factors that play into their hands.
One such factor is that the Saints have been able to consistently beat the top teams in recent times. Over the past two seasons they’ve played the other top-tier teams (Geelong, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs) a total of thirteen times and, remarkably, have only lost twice.
While that did include a loss to the Pies back in Round 16, in that game the Saints were without Nick Dal Santo and Nick Riewoldt was in just his second game back from injury. It’s a different ball game this time around.
Another major factor that will come into it is not only Collingwood’s lack of Grand Final experience, but lack of experience in general.
Eight of Collingwood’s selected side for tomorrow are 22 or younger, while only one St Kilda player (Robert Eddy) falls into that category. Similarly, seven Pies have played 50 games or less, compared to only Eddy for the Saints.
Mick Malthouse has done well to incorporate youth into his side – and, to be fair, there have been a number of occasions where youth has won out over experience in Grand Finals – but you can’t help but hold concerns over how these young players will go when the pressure is on in the biggest game of the year.
Grand Finals have a habit of exacerbating certain flaws. Inexperience is one and, sadly for the Pies, poor goal kicking is another – as recent deciders have shown.
A lot of attention this season has gone to the inaccuracy of the Pies, particularly Travis Cloke and Dayne Beams. Even though the team kicked well last week, including those two, again you have to wonder if the big stage will change all that.
After all, against St Kilda in Round 3, they famously scored 4.17.
Against Geelong in Round 9, it was 6.14.
At the Queen’s Birthday clash with Melbourne, it was 9.22.
Against Geelong again in Round 19, it was 14.23.
In big games where they have been tested by their opponents – something that did not happen last week – the Pies have struggled in front of the sticks. Who can say categorically it won’t be an issue for them tomorrow?
But back to the Saints. They have a quality side worthy of lifting the cup, and it all starts down back.
The Saints conceded the least amount of points in the competition again this season and their experience in restricting opposition will come in handy if tomorrow’s game ends up low-scoring – which is a high chance of happening if the likes of Nick Maxwell, Sam Fisher, Harry O’Brien and Sam Gilbert are freed up in defence.
Then, in the middle, while the Pies do have Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and some enviable depth, it has to be remembered the Saints also possess a highly skilled midfield. Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna, Dal Santo and the rest of the group have shown they are among the competition’s best.
It’s hard to envisage a huge discrepancy in the middle of the ground tomorrow.
Up forward, there’s the most important player on the ground, Riewoldt. While he did boot only one goal the last time these two teams met, and in last year’s Grand Final, on both those occasions he was hampered by injury.
If recent form is anything to go by, a huge game from Roo is a very real possibility. His third quarter last week virtually won his team the game, and his first half against Geelong two weeks prior was also massive.
With Justin Koschitzke and Michael Gardiner also looking dangerous of late, the Saints will test the Pies’ decision to drop Nathan Brown and Tyson Goldsack (both tall defenders) while bringing in Simon Prestigiacomo, who has not played since Round 20.
When the game is on the line and there to be won, the Saints will remember the feeling of walking off the MCG without tasting the ultimate success. If the game is close, this might just be the one factor that separates the two teams more than anything.
Even then, St Kilda are incredibly well-coached, have a game plan the players rally around and have proven themselves against the best. All that’s left now is to convert that into a premiership.
Tip: St Kilda by 12 points.
Stephen
Guest
What about losing to us by 40-odd points? Memories?
Stephen
Guest
Losing in 2002 didn't do us any good the following year :)
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Agree on the GF parade incident, that was poor form from Pies supporters.
beaver fever
Guest
Collingwood in a canter, the Saints look tired, are carrying injuries and dont have as much run, if the Pies jump them it's all over and even if they dont they will run away with it in the last quarter. Remember when the Saints beat Geelong 3 weeks ago, the whole last quarter was spent with Geelong in attack but they kicked horribly and just went down, but Collingwood are a lot better than Geelong at present. Collingwood by 60 points if Cloke kicks staight, if he doesn't, Collingwood by 24. Didak to win Norm Smith. St Kilda do not deserve to win a flag with such a negative, defensive, low scoring game plan, that and Milne as well.
Mathew
Guest
This had better be right - someone has to save us from a Collingwood win! At the GF parade today, the way the Magpies supporters were doing their stupid little "Coll-ingwood" chant while Nick Riewoldt was on stage trying to talk showed an incredible lack of respect and Nick looked rightly pissed off. Fair enough, there fans cop a lot of stereotypes and stuff, but when they behave like that what do they expect? I reckon Magpies will be too strong and probably win comfortably, but right now I would love to be wrong.
Mister Football
Guest
No team in the history of the game has managed the aussie rules equivalent of the full court press like Collingwood has managed this season. Every 2 or 3 seasons, there's something completely new to note in the manner in which the game is played, and this year, no doubt about it, that's it - Collingwood is playing the game in a manner that we have never witnessed before (almost 18 players pushing into their own half to stop the opposition from getting out of the defensive 50). It's a game plan that requires enormous gut running, endless rotations, but above all extraordinary team discipline, understanding and confidence in your team mates. But if there's one team that can work their way through this - it's St Kilda. For the following reasons: 1. they will manafacture stoppages, and won't care if that stoppage is bang on the defensive 50m arc (and that's a whole lot better than coughing it up trying to get out of defensive 50); and 2. Riewoldt. With 17 St Kilda players clogging up the area either side of the defensive 50, Riewoldt will be one bloke doing 100 metre sprints from goal square to centre wing, and back again, and so forth - meaning: he will lose his man more often than not, and he can't be double tagged, and sooner or later, he'll take a grab at centre wing to relieve the pressure and start a forward thrust - and before Harry can get back, Riewoldt will already be on his bike ready to take the return ball in a paddock. This is the pattern we will see for two hours. Collingwood has the game plan and the legs to peform it, St Kilda has the capacity to negate it. If Collingwood can hold Riewoldt - or at least stop any half decent delivery - they win - it's that simple. The main issue for St Kilda? Collingwood can score quick goals from turnovers on their forward 50, and have the personnel to force the turnover and capitalise. Also, if it's a stalemate, Collingwood probably has the better goal sneaks, or blokes who can conjure goals from limited opportunities.
BigAl
Guest
I feel the Saints don't have much chance ! - I also feel so worthless...
Redb
Roar Guru
Beating Collingwood by 10 goals is gold, beating them by 1 point priceless. :)
mark
Guest
85% of Collingwood supporters have had sex in the shower and the other 15% have not been to jail......yet! GO SAINTS!!
Brett McKay
Guest
Redb, if only because that's the best way to beat Collingwood??
mds1970
Roar Guru
The last couple of years we've seen the form team during the year go down in the game that counts - will it be three in a row? Like Michael DF has mentioned, finals time calls for experience - and the Saints have the edge there. And, like we saw in 2008, a team prone to the yips in front of goals can suffer when the pressure is on. At the start of the week, I was thinking that Collingwood were near certainties. But the more the week goes on, the more I can see St Kilda getting up in this one. And who will be the Barry Breen of 2010, the hero who pulls off the moment that gets them over the line? After an injury-riddled season, I can see Nick Riewoldt stepping up to be the man of the moment.
Redb
Roar Guru
St Kilda by 1 point. The footy gods must heed this historical synergy from 1966. The fate of world peace rests on the Saints prevailing. Either that or migration to Brazil will quadruple.
Kurt
Roar Pro
Hmmm, I'm finding this year's GF a really tough one to call. Last year I confidently predicted the Saints so clearly I have no idea, but I can't shake this dark, forboding sense of impending doom that can only equate with a Collingwood premiership. Here's hoping my instincts are wrong again as the Saints are a tough side to break down, no doubt about. Pies by 17 points.