Code war! Fight to the death! Invasion by the southern hordes! And so on and so forth. The GWS Giants – and to a lessor degree the Gold Coast Suns – have polarised opinion and created the latest and greatest sports debate.
Will GWS finally crack the Sydney market for the AFL, or will it simply drain AFL resources until they concede defeat and pull the pin in 25 years time?
I don’t know for sure. But there are some things, thanks to the last 25 years, that I do know.
Expansion for both the AFL and NRL is limited. The AFL is certainly well ahead in expansion, but this has simply shown both codes that an awful lot of time and money is needed to get you… not very far.
The Swans have been in NSW since 1982 and the Lions in Qld since 1987. They are both household names in both states. The Swans have won a flag, the Lions have three.
What has this quarter century of residency achieved for the AFL?
The Swans and Lions both have crowd averages of around 25-30K. This is about twice the average number for the NRL with only the Broncos having a bigger crowd average. This is a great achievement for the AFL in the northern states, but importantly, their only great achievement.
The TV ratings for both teams are not pretty. In fact they’re downright ugly. This year the Swans avg audience in Sydney on the Ten Network was 51K and the Lions in Brisbane was 66K.
To give you some perspective, do you remember the Ten Network’s reality TV show Celebrity Dog School? It achieved a five mainland capital city audience of 545K for its debut episode and was immediately moved to a non prime time timeslot before being pulled from the airwaves the following week. If Swans and Lions games were stand alone products they would have received the same treatment long ago.
Soon the NRL will draw some sort of parity with the AFL. They will get their own independent commission and their ‘product’ will be shown, by law, into developing states TV screens at watch able hours every week. Their next lucrative TV deal will leave them cashed up to also spend big on junior development in developing states. The benefits this will give to the NRL can not be over stated.
So is this the part where I declare the NRL will greatly succeed in foreign territory where the AFL has not.
Well actually, no.
The same brick wall that has greeted the AFL excursion up North will soon greet the NRL down south. A brick wall created by over a century of generational tribal support, the type the A- League and Super rugby would love to have.
So if expansion is so limited, why do it?
Because quite simply, the FTA TV networks will give you more money if you can sell them the ‘illusion’ of a national competition. This is the main reason the AFL received more that the NRL in their last TV deals. This is why Perth is ahead of all the heartland bids for the NRL’s 17th team.
You won’t get great ratings away from your heartland but expanding to the mainland capital cities will generate more money for your code overall – at least for the foreseeable future.
And if you’re still reading this, here’s my two cents.
The AFL has a better live game, the NRL a better TV game.
The Swans and Lions will continue to have great crowds but very poor TV ratings.
The Storm and Western Reds will never have crowd figures bigger than the NRL average of about 15K but will get better TV ratings that the Swans and Lions, although still reasonably poor figures.
And as for GWS?
The AFL already have a team in every mainland capital city to extract the maximum revenue from the networks, and there is no support on the ground for a second AFL Sydney team.
However the AFL simply had no where else to go to get its 9th game (Tassie creates very little revenue through TV advertising), and the AFL have never been in a better position financially to give GWS a go.
Will GWS one day grow to be a resounding success? You should look to the Swans, Lions, Storm and Western Reds for your answer.
conchie
Roar Rookie
haha love all comments, many are so completely off the mark from a now historical perspective. ( 4 years ago )
John
Guest
Only if you are talking cricket and in what context you are in. If someone said to me name three great cricket grounds in the world Lords would be my first choice due to its histroy. SCG and MCG, but the MCG is a monstrosity and is not in the same league as the great "Cricket Grounds". But if the Melbourneian want to claim that there city is great just because they have the biggest cricket ground in the world who really cares. You argue that because AFL is played in all states is irrelevant to the point. NRL has teams playing out of more ciities and regions than AFL that is a fact. Typical of AFL supporters when their argument is found to be flawed in all respects they will attempt to move the goal posts. But using your own analogy then NRL can now claim Perth as several games a year are played there as well as PNG, Adelaide and other parts of NZ. Darwin also hosts one match a year. On expansion the NRL can expand into RL heartland without the need to expend vast amounts of monies in attempting to convert the masses as AFL is attempting to do at great cost and by ignoring other areas within its area of influence. Central QLD, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Central Coast, Wellington (NZ) and Port Moresby and others, are all viying for a place in the NRL in 2013 or beyond. They are all RL regions or cities (Wellington is RU but also RL). Perth has seen a massive increase in South African, British and ex pat NSW/QLD to a point that RL now can have the Western Reds back. The demographie in WA is changing. This can be evidenced in by the WA governments rejection of a billion dollar constructiion of a 70,000 plus stadium that the AFL and WCE wanted built. It is my understanding that some of that monies will now be spent on the redevelopment of ME stadium the real football ground in Perth where RU, AF (soccer) and RL will play out of. By the way I do not live in Sydney or in NSW so I speak of Sydney through the eyes of aa Australian who can see that Sydney is Australia's no 1 city.
Sharminator
Guest
Its always good to get a laugh. The irony of "the Wookie"´s comments is killing me .... "Go on ask around, see what sport stadiums people know of in Australia? First cab off the rank: the MCG. Every time." According to who? .... people in Melbourne!! jajaja. You are just proving how Melbourne centric you are!!! Obviously it depends who you are asking. If we are talking about the majority of people in the world (which I assumer we are as the questions is what sports stadiums people know in Australia, and most Australian´s know of at least 1 or 2 in each capital city) .. The majority of people in the world have actually never heard of the MCG or for that matter the SCG either. Why? Because the MCG hosts and Southern Australian Centric sport and Anglo centric sport ... both with limited viewing audiences, even including India and Pakistan in cricket viewer numbers. The most well known stadium in Australia is actually the Sydney Olympic Stadium ... site of the 2000 Olympics and the 2003 Rugby World Cup Final, 2 of the 3 biggest sporting events in the world in with tv viewers numbering in billions and attendance numbers in millions.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
Channel 7 and 10 already have the TV rights for the AFL, and are contractually bound to bid for the next lot together. And foxtel paid more per game than they did for the NRL matches. There was an article elsewhere that addressed the issue that advertising dollars generated are almost identical on FTA between the AFL and NRL, and are EQUAL advertising dollars on foxtel despite fox showing less AFL than NRL. (ref: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/no-easy-answer-to-the-1b-question-20101119-180wm.html) Note: this is a Sydney based publication. I dont think either league will get the billion dollar mark. national game? the AFL play matches in every state and territory, including several in darwin and tasmania. Not to mention SA and WA where league has little to no current NRL presence. As far as state representation goes, again Australian rules is played at state level in every state. This argument made little sense. Melbourne syndrome? When i think of a city in Australia i tend to think of the one i live in. Most others will know of sydney sure, but it has nothing to do with sport. Go on ask around, see what sport stadiums people know of in Australia? First cab off the rank: the MCG. Every time.
Sharminator
Guest
Exactly John .. as I said before it is a common error made by AFLers that memberships are the only measure of the popularity of a code, because in their code ... more memberships translates into how popular a club is. They are trying to impose the perspective they have developed from knowing their code, onto other codes, which dosnt work. Obviously every RL would like to have 70 000 members .. just like every AFL club would love to have a complex like the Penrith Panthers have to support the football club, but historically Rugby League and AFL clubs have developed on different financial models. Leagues Clubs developed as the economic base of RL and memberships developed as the economic base of AFL. When analysing the codes you need to look at memberships, revenue generation, tv viewers, merchandise, player participation and a whole host of other things. An even better example is Rugby Union ... the number of "members" of the supporters clubs of Waratahs or Brumbies is miniscule, compared to the number of people that actually go to the games or buy mechandise ... but, as they are representative teams, and the number of games is smaller ... people dont feel the need to become "members".
John
Guest
Agreed Mick. It appears the Redb places all his marbles on average crowds and membership as the marker of a codes dominate success when there are many other indicators such as TV ratings and merchandise sales to name just two. Another point I must make is the current 500 mill and 780 mill being paid for the NRL and AFL TV rights. When the NRL went to the market only channel nine was interested and Foxtel. RL was in a mending period since the Super League War. AFL in contrast was paid over 200 mill more than the rights were worth and this came about due to Channnel nine bumping up the TV rights that it actually didn't want. This time will be very different indeed. RL is now the no 1 rating football code on FTA and Pay Tv in Austrilasia. AFL have been a huge disaster. To the point that both channel 7 and 10 will be bidding for the FTA rights in 2012. This will have or should have a postive impact on the NRL's ability to receive top dollar. On the other hand AFL has proven to be a poor product for TV and the ratings prove this. Will the AFL get their 1 billion that they want? I have ny doubts due to the code being overpaid in the previous agreement. The NRL on the other hand will be offering their product in three pieces: NRL, SOO and internationals. It would be, IMO, close to 1.3-1.5 billion for the three products. I could be proven wrong only time will tell. Another point that needs to be made is which game is truely national? It would be my view both are not truley a national game based on dots on the board. During this topic however the AFL supporters have again stated that AFL is a more natioanl game than NRl. Again, with very little research, this is found to be another untruth spruiked by our AFL brothers. AFL is played at a premier level in the following cities/areas-Perth- Adelaide-Melbourne- Geelong-Sydney- Gold Coast and Brisbane a total of 7 cities/areas. The NRL is played at the premier level in the following: Townsville, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Newcastle, Sydney, Wollongong, Canberra, Melbourne and Auckland for a totasl of 9 cities/areas. I could add Penrith as it is about the same distance from Sydney as Geelong is from Melbourne (but I won't split hairs on this point). The NRL will be expanding, in 2013, by at least another two teams (maybe four) from Perth, Central QLD, Central Coast, Brisbane or NZ. This will expand NRL presence to 11 or 13 cities/regions by 2013. Cleary a dominate position for the NRl. But hey lets a disregard all this and go our AFL brothers version. Don't let the truth get in the way of a good story. It yet again is the Melbourne syndrome. Sydney has always been the dominate city and Melbourne people are still dirty on Capt Cook for sailing up the east coast and not the southern coast. When you think of a city in Auzz its is Sydney, its harbour, the bridge, opera house and Bondi beach. In return Melbourne offers, oh crap, nothing except a horse race and a foreign game and the road north to get out of the place. Enough said.
JVGO
Guest
Redb of course expansion is not about capitalism, you have it the wrong way around, it's capitalism that is about expansion. As sports have stopped being community based activities and entertainments, they have become businesses. AFL is a business and acts like one. It's not even worth arguing about really.
John
Guest
Well stated. I might not agree on everything you said JF but a good post.
John
Guest
Yep
John
Guest
Are and whats the GF ratings got to do with what Jimbo is stating? The AFL TV ratings in Qld are also atrocious and are not getting better. The ratings for the GF has no bearing on what Jimbo is stating. I watch the FA CUP evey year without fail. That does not make me a follower of the EPL. I watch the NFL Rose Bowl without fail. That does not make me a follower of the NFL. I watch the Challenge Cup final every year that does not make me a follow of UK Super League. People watch both the AFL and NRL GF's but that is no indicator of the codes actual following the sport. I however never watch and never will watch an AFL GF as the game bores me to tears. However you are passionate about your sport but you seem to be blinded by your own passion. There are some intersting posts with some intelligent comments. Yours are not among those.
John
Guest
Official franchise bids There are currently five official bids in progress, all intent on joining the NRL when the current media deal comes up for negotiation around 2012/2013. • In 2005 the North Sydney Bears planned on rejoining the league as the Central Coast Bears and basing themselves out of Gosford, New South Wales and will use Central Coast Stadium. The bid team plans to unite the current North Sydney and Central Coast districts under the one team.[37] • In 2006 the Western Australia Rugby League announced that the Perth-based WA Reds were to be resurrected with an aim to re-join the NRL in 2013, playing out of nib Stadium. Currently they contest the underage S. G. Ball Cup, with an aim to having a number of WA-born juniors when the bid joins the NRL. • In October 2008, a Papua New Guinea bid team was launched with government funding and support. An official website was launched in September 2009 detailing the progress of the PNG bid and its aim to provide social and economic benefits for the country as a whole. • In April 2009, a consortium from the Central Queensland region declared their intent to launch a bid for an NRL franchise to be based in Rockhampton in the next expansion period. The bid is aiming to be a new club by 2013 Further update in todays Courier Mail. QLD Government will fund the construction of a stadium if bid is successful. • In August 2010 the Ipswich Jets formally announced the creation of a bid team for 2013 with the future club to based in the Ipswich-West Brisbane corridor in order to capitalise on the massive population boom projected for that region. The move would effectively see the promotion of the existing local Queensland Cup side to the higher NRL premiership.
John
Guest
Who is Hooplah and Redb?. I don't mind reading peoples post that are factual but some of the things that have been stated are not based on fact. The topic is Expansion is Limited. This is a true IMO. However: Fact one: The NRL can and will expand further and with more teams than the AFL can. At I write, there are bids to have teams in the NRL from 2013 from , Perth, Central QLD, Central Coast, Port Moresby, Wellington (NZ) Christchurch (NZ) and even one from Fiji with interest from Darwin, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Adealide. No other code has such interest in the expansion of the code than the NRL. This goes well for the support of the code as a product when millionaires and a billlianaire and governments want to be involved in the NRL. Fact 2: TV ratings drive the monies that Foxtel and FTA will pay for the rights. Its is noted that the NRL: • Out rates AFL on FTA and PAY TV not just: But by a huge margin. • The sale of merchandise is larger than AFL by some $15 mill per year (it has been reported). This places the NRL in a very good postion at the negoiation table ahead of the AFL. The AFL will already have negotiated the TV rights again allowing the NRL to use as a springbaord for more monies. Fact 3: NRL has a higher saturation (population) density. *NSW 6.6 Million (2006) *QLD 4.47 million (2010) *ACT 352,000 (2010) *PNG 6.6 million (2006) *NZ 4.143 million(2006) Total 22.1 million without the Pacific Islands and the supporters in WA, TAS, VIC AND SA. AFL, on the other hand, can only claim VIC, TAS, SA and WA and, if my brother is right, they are starting to lose their grip on WA with the influx of UK,SA and QLD-NSW people. I have left NT out of the argument. • The demographics of the NRL is larger than the AFL - NSW, ACT, QLD, PNG, NZ, and the Pacific Islands (as shown above). • There is a large (an untapped) supporter base in WA. There is a massive UK and SA population in Perth. Fact 4. GWS is owned and operated by the AFL and has opened wounds in Tasmania. Alienating the AFL commission in that state. It may or may not work. The risk is with the AFL. Fact 5. Rugby league has been poorly managed for over 30 years and yet despite this has AFL and the AFL commission in overdrive and great cost as it is rightlfully concerned that NRL is the code that can push AFL out. What will happen now when the NRL commission takes over and for the first time the RL has one management team running the game? The sky is the limit. Allan Jones, John Howard, Gerry Harvey are just three names I am aware of that are in the mix to be offerred positions on the NRL commission. Fact 6. Powefful media moguls are NRL supporters such as Packer and Murdoch. Fact 7. Brisbane Lions finished $2 million in debt this year. Other clubs such as Port Power are in massive finacial trouble. I have ben informed that both SA teams are in finacial trouble. Fact 8; The WAFL and SAFL are both in finacial trouble and have called for more monies to be invested in their states but the AFL have, as far as I am aware, not come to the party. Fact 9 The AFL does draw larger crowds and have larger membership but most of the AFL clubs are struggling finacially. Fact 10. It costs more than double to run and AFL team than an NRL. I have a mate that is an ardent Panthers supporter and Bombers supporter born and bred in the Albury district. He loves both sports with a passion. The AFL started the "War" as it has been termed. Only time will tell. For me and my famiiy we will continue to support our teams in the NRL and continue to never watch or be interested in AFL
John
Guest
I would not belive a thing AFL says about attendance figures or ratings figures or junior participation figures. They have a history of misrepresenting the facts to benefit there objective.
clipper
Guest
Attendance figures are pretty important, as it looks embarrassing if stadiums are empty and creates negative publicity (for example the recent Sri Lanka - Australia Cricket series). TV loves a big crowd - when Collingwood plays a blockbuster the camera often pans over the crowd, but if no one is at the ground you only see the crowd when the camera follows the ball. If there was little interest in attendance figures, there would be no free tickets given away.
clipper
Guest
Why does your brain need 20k neurons before it receives a compliment?
mick h
Guest
rl(28% growth to 144,190) is embracing memberships just like the afl and with similar growth in 2011 numbers should be approaching the 200,000 mark. redb you don't have to be a member to purchase merchandise as the nrl outsells the afl by about 15 mill $ and has far less football club members. i have said this point before rl leagues club membership is completely different to football club membership. monday night football is affecting crowds and tv figures are increasing and with an increased tv deal clubs will be compensated for the shortfall.
mick h
Guest
the rabbitohs will have 30,000 by then with the bulldogs 20,000 st george -illawarra 20,000 parramatta 15,000
mick h
Guest
sydney had its lowest crowd ever on sunday at parra stadium 6600 approx
Redb
Roar Guru
Expansion is not about capitalism at all. Its about surviving in an ever increasing competitive environment, its about broadening the base so that not all of your eggs are in one basket. The AFL (governing body) is seeking to add new regions as existing regions are mature and competitors (other codes) are moving in. The explosion of communications and travel in the past 10-15 years in particular has created a two way street for all sports/codes. They are no longer bound to their origins, the reach has been extended. As a much smaller code than either soccer or rugby in terms of world presence it would be crazy for the AFL to just sit idle and watch the one way traffic.
Sharminator
Guest
exactly ... some of the comments the ex NFL commissioner made at the AFL conference were interesing, about the need for expansion. However ... the NFL still has not managed to make it beyond US shores apart from one off regular season games. NFL Europe was a 15 year failure despite billions of investment. As JVGO said it is really about capitalism, and the wish of investors, tv corporations etc of more revenue. With two teams in Sydney the AFL came claim higher public interest ... and therefore higher television interest for a Derby match between the two NSW teams .. the same goes for Gold Coast in Queensland along with Brisbane. Even AFL types admit that there has not been any huge increase in AFL playing numbers in Sydney, while in contrast a state like Tasmania, with a rich Australian rules history is much more deserving of an AFL team. A problem that AFL faces is that there is no international aspect to the game .. so they have to focus on local expansion and trying to dominate in Australia. In contrast football, rugby and even to an extent rugby league ... can all claim international interest and sell their product overseas. I guess in time we will see what happens. Overconfident expansion was the undoing NBA ... I dont think the same will happen to the AFL but longer term you wonder if it will have more than a publicity effect. The Western Force have been in the Super 14 for 5 years and no new home grown WA players have reached the Australian team.