Now that the annual expedition north has finished, let us turn our eyes to the fixture everyone is thinking of next year. With no inbound tours, and a shortened Tri Nations, that leaves the quadrennial knockout tournament otherwise known as the Rugby World Cup.
Most would agree that barring miracles, the following are making up the numbers: Tonga, Canada, Japan, Georgia, Romania, Italy, Russia, USA and Namibia.
So what have we learnt? How are the contenders placed based on the last few weeks?
If there is a pool of death, it has to be Pool D, where Fiji or Samoa could turn in an upset and make life very difficult for Wales (again).
Regardless, whoever comes second in this pool is going home after the quarter finals anyway. They’ll expect to face Australia, who rightfully should top Pool C.
So to Pool A. Contenders are the All Blacks and France. I’ll deal with the All Blacks last, so France, what have we learnt?
Despite Lièvremont’s assertions that he was looking to take advantage of the new law interpretations and had seen the light during the recent Tri Nations, his squad selections are schizophrenic.
His team are lacking the basic skills in passing a ball in front of a moving man, robbing them of momentum. The questions they ask in attack are limited and easily contained by adequate opposition.
Barring a miracle, the French will have one good game in them and no more. If it’s in the pool it changes things immensely for everyone else, if it’s in the quarters it won’t really matter, they’ll still be going home after the semis.
Pool B. England will top this. They’ve shown their intent and some enterprising rugby in the last few weeks. They have some excellent prospects in Ashton, Cole, Foden, Lawes and especially Youngs, and shouldn’t be troubled by a steadily improving Scotland nor a declining Argentina.
As everyone has commented on by now, they need a better centre pairing and balance in the backrow. Second place will be Scotland’s. Ignore their aberration against New Zealand, that’s what happens when a team is bereft of game time come up against the number one ranked team in the world who play sublimely.
Their other results are a more accurate indicator of their growing ability.
Pool C. Australia will top this group and possibly with the best for and against of all teams after the group stage. While the Wallabies have noted issues in one key set piece, they are very good at the lineout and have the firepower to dominate at the breakdown.
Pocock is currently the best snaffler of the ball in world rugby. Teams need to work out to either stay well away from him or actually run at him and make him tackle. If he’s second into the breakdown, there’s every chance you’ve lost the ball.
Add to this what is possibly the best backline in world rugby. Given a sliver of time and space, they run fantastic lines with soft hands and execute chances. They are getting better with game time. Their forwards need to raise themselves to this standard, but I don’t think they can. As a team, they need to play with consistency.
Ireland will come second, and a distant second at that. They need props more than the Wallabies do. Despite the skills of Sexton, BOD, Bowe and a handy lock pairing of Donncha O’Callaghan and Paul O’Connell, they’re a team whose best football appears to be behind them.
Italy are so poorly and predictably coached, that they’re going to be badly exposed as a one dimensional team playing yesterday’s game.
Pool D. If there is a “pool of death”, this has to be it. There’s not much we can derive from South Africa’s tour based on the amount of injuries they have apart from two important aspects; namely no one plays 10 man rugby better.
If your team doesn’t front up at the collisions, you’re in for a very long day. Make a mistake from anywhere between your try line and the Springbok’s 10m line and Morne Steyn is more likely than not to keep the scoreboard ticking over. In a period of great kickers, he appears to be the cream. Can’t run a backline to save himself and the coaching staff don’t seem to care.
At no point have they suggested they want to embark on this voyage of running the ball at any opportunity, which is a pity because they do have some handy backs. I’ll say at the outset, if they continue to select a fat, unfit hooker at prop they’re dead in the water. If they select Smit instead of Bismarck du Plessis at hooker, they’ve got rocks in their head.
Wales. Hmm, Wales. Just as likely to come second as to not make the quarters. Plenty of talent and no depth. Both Fiji and Samoa are capable of revisiting the horror of 2007 on the Welsh.
All Blacks. Hosts. Winningest team in world rugby. Quite possibly the most complete team. Excellent forwards and backs. Strangely muted during their Northern Tour showing very little inventiveness in back line play from set pieces, instead appearing to rely on natural ability and counter attacking to score tries.
Still completely and utterly disinterested in drop goals, but when you score more tries than the opposition, have forwards playing like backs and props spotting gaps running 30m to score, who cares? A good team is one that can play badly and still win.
A team that has people arguing over the relative merits of which of their brilliant players should be in the XV. This is that team. Although not at the level of dominance the 2005-06 All Blacks were, this squad is still better than any other in world rugby. This does not mean they’ll win the RWC.
To win the RWC, a competent team just needs to win three hard tests in a row. Any serious contender is going to make the quarter finals. That’s where the real competition starts. Of the eight teams that make it here, only five have any real claim to beat any of the others on any given day.
Scotland, Ireland and Wales aren’t them. You could probably add France to that list quite frankly. I’ll revisit this after the Six Nations and the Tri Nations next year to see what, if anything, has changed.
TembaVJ
Guest
Sam as always good post… When do you get a job writing in the red section? PDV aside if they rest the senior players in South Africa Matfield, Burger, Smit, Smith, Habanna, JDV, Fourie ext these guys will be fresh to make one last push for glory but they will need to be fresh for the 8 games and well managed throughout 2011. Add to that the return of the South African “Dan Carter” Fourie Du Preeze. The experience in this team under John Smit will put them on par with the AB’s to win it next year. I don’t think the new laws will make it more score friendly, we will see much of the same only the team names changing. If they do meet in the qrt finals it will be an epic game, with a kick deciding the winner.
B-Rock
Roar Guru
In my view, having a really easy pool, like Aus did in 07 (Fiji, Wales, Japan, Canada) actually works against you come the knockout stages. NZ had an even easier pool in 07 (Italy, Scotland, Romania and Portugal). In contrast, the two "over-achievers" in 07 - Argentina and England had France and the boks in their respective pools. Aus has a fairly easy pool again - only Ireland and Italy are of minimal concern. Whether teams come 1st or 2nd in their pools is not, in my view, as important as having a tough game early on to test themselves. Better to lose this pool match, get your wake up call and come 2nd in the pool than lose a knock-out game after a series of cake walks in the pool games. I would be shocked if NZ didn't dominate this RWC - while not having the numbers at hand, home ground advantage is such an advantage in test rugby, particularly when there isnt enough hotel rooms to house opposition supporters. NZ is also clearly the most complete team, with plenty of experience, so hard to see any way they cannot be raging hot favourites. An early match against France should be a good test, preparing them for the QFs Wallabies unfortunately dont look the goods to me - way too inconsistent, weak scrum, patchy defense, etc. RWCs are won through the forwards, quality defense and overall consistency. A great back line is fantastic as the WBs can put 40pts on any team on their day but I would not be surprised to see Aus lose at the SF stage, as much as I would love for the wallabies to go all the way, we are likely to have a shocker in one of the knockout games. Look out in London 2015 though, as the current young WBs players will be hitting their prime and will be exceptionally strong (assuming they dont all leave for league/french rugby in the mean time)
Bayboy
Guest
Exactly, the pressure for the Wallabies and any other Opponent will be huge will they be able to handle the pressure from within New Zealand the crowds
Derm
Roar Guru
If Ireland beat Australia - would that constitute an upset? Or if Scotland beat England? And who would be upset anyway? I suspect that there'd be a lot of happy fans in some part of the world at those results.
Taniwha
Guest
I found it curious that it is always noted that playing at home for AB's at RWC will just bring a negative, pressure. Well this is true to some extent, I think you will find the whole nation baying for them and baying for the blood of the opponents. I remember the feeling throughout the country in 87, and attended the games against Italy and the final against France. Hopefully similar feeling will occur this time!
Ben S
Roar Guru
Brilliant.
eagle
Guest
This must be a most interesting RWC for Australia. the win over France and recently over NZ gives a sense of possibilities as long as Ben Robinson is picked in the front row. And if Vickerman indeed makes it back and Pocock continues to grow in stature then it bodes well. Probably the main positive factor for Australia is the draw in that the first time they could meet either of their Southern rivals will be in the final. South Africa will have to overcome a pool of dark horses and tough physicality and win a tough QF to meet New Zealand in the semi final. If they get on the field in the semi and overcome NZ, then Australia may breathe a sigh of relief. But that relief may be misplaced against the experienced Boks. Notheless with France is dismal form NZ will coast through their group and their QF and they will be in bouyant mood going into the semi with SA. Whether that is a good or a bad thing for the All Blacks chances in that match one hardly knows. Somehow I feel if the All Blacks get to the final, no matter how good the wallabies are on the day the blacks will succeed to deliver the dream.
Jack Petro
Guest
Jason - sorry - you're full of it! Presume all you like and sit on the fence - Wallabies v All Blacks Final - winner take all!
Tui
Guest
Probably because France are in NZ's pool Einstein
Jerry
Guest
That's not really how it works - players aren't gonna make much more money playing Super 15 than before, it's just going to put more freedom in their hands as to which team they play for. The pot of money that the franchises have isn't increasing to any significant degree so even if a player plays hardball, they're not gonna be able to make that kind of money from Super rugby.
Jerry
Guest
Who is this mystery 13? They had a few players unavailable for the TN, but it was hardly a second string side.
goldenbull
Guest
If thats the case then why not France v England? Through a bearded french team at the all blacks and you know the story
goldenbull
Guest
I actually think your right. SA will have 13 of their best back and have no issues fronting up to the Blacks especially in NZ. well done
sheek
Guest
Look, I want Argentina to do well, & they might surprise again. But we can only go on what we know.....
goldenbull
Guest
I have to agree, France is a good chance to beat them in the pool stages and if that happens your looking at pressure, pressure, pressure. Aus V NZ final The wallabies have nothing to loose they are not the best team in the world, it is not the ntional sport like it is in NZ and its in NZ backyard. every one expects NZ to win the WC which is fantastic for the wallabies to go in as underdogs. they have the easiest run to the finals and remember the Boks have 13 players injured, they will be very strong next year again and take it to the Blacks. Wallabies to play a game like they have nothing to lose in the final and they can run away with it. All Blacks and pressure including the fact its in their own backyard is massive. Choke time!
Geoff Brisbane
Guest
NZ V England final, they have been and seem to be the bogey team for Wallabies. NZ choke? Not at home where they won the 1st World Cup. Interesting scenarios if there are one or 2 upsets in the pool play i.e one of the so called top 4 finishing 2nd in their pool wouldn't that throw the cat among the pidgeons?
Ian
Guest
Going to be an Aus vs SA final. AB's will choke in the semis against SA. With Fourie Du Preez back at scrumhalf, the Boks will regain the edge they had in 2009. Aus will win the final. You heard it here first!
Ralph
Guest
From Brisbane, by Bus? Tell him he's dreaming!
NF
Guest
I love to see minnow teams like Canada,US, Russia and Japan pulling up major upsets over New Zealand, France, and Australia in there respective pool stages but I doubt it happen instead I expect 80+ point drubbings but a valiant effort by the minnows. I expect a Aus vs NZ final with All Blacks winning.
AJ
Guest
Agree with comments above stating that it's an open affair.This northern tour has proven that.With the exception of NZ (who were kept honest until 70 somethingth minute by Wales) all teams had got rolled by a lower ranked side.Anyone can have an off day just as most are capable of firing up for an upset.Cruel bounce of a ball,rub of the green with a ref call or dodgy prawn! There were some very good games there and I thought some good play from all teams with ball movement and retention and............ some fearless and mighty collisions,which is surely the best part of rugby.I'm really looking forward to it now.