How is your team travelling for the RWC?

 
Jason Roar Guru

By Jason, 1 Dec 2010 Jason is a Roar Guru

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Former South African coach Jake White holds the winner's trophy after their Rugby World Cup final against England - AP Photo/Christophe Ena

Now that the annual expedition north has finished, let us turn our eyes to the fixture everyone is thinking of next year. With no inbound tours, and a shortened Tri Nations, that leaves the quadrennial knockout tournament otherwise known as the Rugby World Cup.

Most would agree that barring miracles, the following are making up the numbers: Tonga, Canada, Japan, Georgia, Romania, Italy, Russia, USA and Namibia.

So what have we learnt? How are the contenders placed based on the last few weeks?

If there is a pool of death, it has to be Pool D, where Fiji or Samoa could turn in an upset and make life very difficult for Wales (again).

Regardless, whoever comes second in this pool is going home after the quarter finals anyway. They’ll expect to face Australia, who rightfully should top Pool C.

So to Pool A. Contenders are the All Blacks and France. I’ll deal with the All Blacks last, so France, what have we learnt?

Despite Lièvremont’s assertions that he was looking to take advantage of the new law interpretations and had seen the light during the recent Tri Nations, his squad selections are schizophrenic.

His team are lacking the basic skills in passing a ball in front of a moving man, robbing them of momentum. The questions they ask in attack are limited and easily contained by adequate opposition.

Barring a miracle, the French will have one good game in them and no more. If it’s in the pool it changes things immensely for everyone else, if it’s in the quarters it won’t really matter, they’ll still be going home after the semis.

Pool B. England will top this. They’ve shown their intent and some enterprising rugby in the last few weeks. They have some excellent prospects in Ashton, Cole, Foden, Lawes and especially Youngs, and shouldn’t be troubled by a steadily improving Scotland nor a declining Argentina.

As everyone has commented on by now, they need a better centre pairing and balance in the backrow. Second place will be Scotland’s. Ignore their aberration against New Zealand, that’s what happens when a team is bereft of game time come up against the number one ranked team in the world who play sublimely.

Their other results are a more accurate indicator of their growing ability.

Pool C. Australia will top this group and possibly with the best for and against of all teams after the group stage. While the Wallabies have noted issues in one key set piece, they are very good at the lineout and have the firepower to dominate at the breakdown.

Pocock is currently the best snaffler of the ball in world rugby. Teams need to work out to either stay well away from him or actually run at him and make him tackle. If he’s second into the breakdown, there’s every chance you’ve lost the ball.

Add to this what is possibly the best backline in world rugby. Given a sliver of time and space, they run fantastic lines with soft hands and execute chances. They are getting better with game time. Their forwards need to raise themselves to this standard, but I don’t think they can. As a team, they need to play with consistency.

Ireland will come second, and a distant second at that. They need props more than the Wallabies do. Despite the skills of Sexton, BOD, Bowe and a handy lock pairing of Donncha O’Callaghan and Paul O’Connell, they’re a team whose best football appears to be behind them.

Italy are so poorly and predictably coached, that they’re going to be badly exposed as a one dimensional team playing yesterday’s game.

Pool D. If there is a “pool of death”, this has to be it. There’s not much we can derive from South Africa’s tour based on the amount of injuries they have apart from two important aspects; namely no one plays 10 man rugby better.

If your team doesn’t front up at the collisions, you’re in for a very long day. Make a mistake from anywhere between your try line and the Springbok’s 10m line and Morne Steyn is more likely than not to keep the scoreboard ticking over. In a period of great kickers, he appears to be the cream. Can’t run a backline to save himself and the coaching staff don’t seem to care.

At no point have they suggested they want to embark on this voyage of running the ball at any opportunity, which is a pity because they do have some handy backs. I’ll say at the outset, if they continue to select a fat, unfit hooker at prop they’re dead in the water. If they select Smit instead of Bismarck du Plessis at hooker, they’ve got rocks in their head.

Wales. Hmm, Wales. Just as likely to come second as to not make the quarters. Plenty of talent and no depth. Both Fiji and Samoa are capable of revisiting the horror of 2007 on the Welsh.

All Blacks. Hosts. Winningest team in world rugby. Quite possibly the most complete team. Excellent forwards and backs. Strangely muted during their Northern Tour showing very little inventiveness in back line play from set pieces, instead appearing to rely on natural ability and counter attacking to score tries.

Still completely and utterly disinterested in drop goals, but when you score more tries than the opposition, have forwards playing like backs and props spotting gaps running 30m to score, who cares? A good team is one that can play badly and still win.

A team that has people arguing over the relative merits of which of their brilliant players should be in the XV. This is that team. Although not at the level of dominance the 2005-06 All Blacks were, this squad is still better than any other in world rugby. This does not mean they’ll win the RWC.

To win the RWC, a competent team just needs to win three hard tests in a row. Any serious contender is going to make the quarter finals. That’s where the real competition starts. Of the eight teams that make it here, only five have any real claim to beat any of the others on any given day.

Scotland, Ireland and Wales aren’t them. You could probably add France to that list quite frankly. I’ll revisit this after the Six Nations and the Tri Nations next year to see what, if anything, has changed.

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