New Zealand players celebrate after New Zealand’s Shane Smeltz, partially visible at second from left, scored a goal, during the World Cup Group F soccer match between Italy and New Zealand at Mbombela Stadium in Nelspruit, South Africa, Sunday, June 20, 2010. (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)
The inner machinations of football politics have risen to the fore once again. In what has mainly gone unnoticed by the Australian football media, the FIFA Executive convened on Thursday to decide the continental allocations for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
FIFA has decided to change the format of the half playoff spots. Whereas for 2010 an AFC team played an OFC team, and North played South America, for 2014 a ‘random’ draw will be conducted in July to determine which confederation plays each other.
The two confederations who stand to be affected adversely through this determination are Asia and Oceania. Simply put, both were blindsided by CONCACAF politicking.
On Wednesday, CONCACAF’s American Secretary General, along with fellow FIFA Executive member and CONCACAF president, Jack Warner, proclaimed to the world that they deserved an upgrade from their existing 3.5 places to a full 4 spots.
“From both a sporting and political perspective we believe we warrant the extra half-place… politically, we have the number of countries to warrant it and our countries’ performances in the World Cup have demonstrated that we deserve it,” he said.
They wanted the status quo to change in their favour. Could you blame them? A mediocre Central American team like Costa Rica, Honduras or Panama, or Caribbean Island such as Trinidad or Jamaica do not stand a chance at qualifying against a South American team. However, this was a mere smokescreen.
Blazer would have been well aware the possibility of him stealing a spot from Africa, Asia or South America was slim, but he knew his teams stood a much better chance of qualification if the route through South America was augmented.
But this article is not about whether CONCACAF deserves more representation in Brazil, nor the quality, or lack-there-of in CONCACAF (frankly, I’m of the firm belief that outside of the USA and Mexico, there is very little footballing quality or a nation with a significant population in that confederation; their 3.5 should be reduced to 3 or 2.5 births). This article is about the lack of foresight shown by Asia and Oceania’s football politicians.
With no disrespect intended to New Zealand or Oceania, each Confederation would see their candidate having a 65-95 per cent chance of qualifying against the Oceania champion. The fact that New Zealand qualified against Bahrain was an anomaly. Bahrain themselves should not have been the Asian candidate.
A 95th minute winner was needed in Tashkent from a bullet Mahmoud ‘Ringo’ Abdulrahman freekick; another Ringo freekick against Uzbekistan in Manama; and a scrappy goal off a set-piece against Qatar in Manama to get to the AFC playoff.
Here, the stars aligned in stoppage time for Bahrain, where they went behind in the 91st minute against Saudi, only to score an away goal winner in the 94th minute in Riyadh to get to face New Zealand. Kiwi scenes of euphoria would not have been so if Bahrain converted their 50th minute penalty in Wellington, or if they had their scoring boots on in Manama where they botched chance after chance.
The continent that faces Oceania would fancy their chances; conversely the continent that faces South American opposition tends to quiver in their boots, hence the great demand by Blazer and co to change the status quo.
Mohammed bin Hammam and David Chung (PNG President of Oceania) must see the change as a setback. Mohammed bin Hammam had the opportunity to go to the Executive meeting in Zurich and offer an olive branch to Oceania. The final Asia qualifying round consists of 10 teams in two groups of five.
In every single pre-determined match day, one team has a bye. Asia could have and should have welcomed the winner and runner-up of the Oceania Nations Cup into the final round of AFC qualifying. New Caledonia or Solomon Islands would almost certainly finish last in their groups, while New Zealand would have to show remarkable consistency over 10 entire games, and would not be favoured to finish higher than third.
The benefits for Oceania here would have been the opportunity to get two teams theoretically into the World Cup. The main benefit for Asia would be a virtual guarantee of five teams qualifying for Brazil, without having to make a single change to the existing qualifying format or matchday schedule. But common sense did not prevail.
Bin Hammam chanced his hand that the status quo of the AFC/OFC playoff would remain. It did not. Now an Asian team faces the nigh-on-impossible task of an away trip to South America as a distinct possibility.
David Chung dispelled the notion that the route for Oceania was now harder in the New Zealand press: “They’re all hard. Anyone who says that playing through the Asian route is easy has got rocks in their heads. It was tough and the boys will tell you it was, and they overcame that.”
Naturally, David, the route to the World Cup for any of your teams is incredibly difficult, but clearly you would much rather the prospect of a playoff against Bahrain, Uzbekistan, Iran or Saudi rather than Uruguay, Chile, Columbia or Ecuador.
………………………………
Among other things determined by the Executive, New Zealand beat out Peru, Wales and Tunisia to host 2015 men’s Under-20 World Cup – a big congratulations must be in order; and sole bidder Canada will host the 2015 women’s World Cup after Zimbabwe unsurprisingly withdrew their bid due to a lack of suitable infrastructure.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
Geoge you've answered your question about why the East/West Asia split could happen ... b/c the powerbase in the AFC & FIFA seems to have shifted to West Asia. And, from my analysis, the "randomised play-offs" are potentially more detrimental to the combined CONMEBOL & CONCACAF than to the AFC. 1. CONMEBOL & CONCACAF Old system: Guaranteed 8 spots at the FIFA WC New system: Minimum of 7 spots; Maximum of 9 spots 2. AFC Old system: Minimum 4 spots; Maximum: 5 spots New system: Minimum of 4 spots; Maximum of 5 spots
Axelv
Guest
I agree, the East-West thing is rubbish and there is no incentive for it for anything. It's just Finke spin.
Axelv
Guest
To be fair to Fuss's comment, I watched Costa Rica and Uruguay play and in the first leg at least the game was really close. Costa Rica are not easy beats and Uruguay are a great team as they proved in the World Cup but they were not that far infront of Costa Rica. Usually though it's Costa Rica that gets the automatic spot and a team like Honduras, Trinidad and Tobago or Jamaica would play off for the 4th spot. But Honduras had a freaky streak and I believe they beat Mexico and USA at the start of the campaign.
Moonface
Roar Guru
George, I don't think CONCACAF will succeed. With Brazil hosting the WC, there will also be an extra South Amrican team in the WC and the Oceania winner won't have to play a South American team again - this is a positive for our region.
jamesb
Guest
I want asia and oceania to merge so that it would be 5 world cup spots. And depending on world cup performances, that could increse to 5 and a half or 6 spots.
George Mladenov
Guest
The East/West split will never, ever happen. Why would the East Asian nations want to split into a new confederation to fight over 2.5 spots, when they can clean sweep all 5 (or 4.5) in the current system. Politically all the power is in the West. They will never settle for anything than an even split, plus there is no incentive for them to break away. The best comprimise for Oceania would be for it to keep its Confederation status, but for it to be integrated into the final stages of Asian qualifying. It would be a back to the future approach. AFC/OFC qualifying was integrated up until Mexico 1986. To qualify for 1982, New Zealand had to make away trips to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, back when air travel was not as extensive as it is today. Whether it's just New Zealand + another AFC, or NZ + an island to extend the final 10 to a 12, it's just an idea. Either way it would not change the format of AFC qualifying, it would lock up 5 spots, and avoid a potential playoff against South America.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
George The little I know of the AFC, there's absolutely no way that they would want to have 2 Oceania nations to taking part in the AFC Group Qualifiers! Whilst it's a remote possibility, theoretically with your system 2 OFC nations could end up qualifying for the WC and only 3 AFC nations. Also, I'd be surprised if the FIFA rules/regulations would allow a mixing of Confederations during any Group Qualifiers. More likely, we'll eventually have the AFC split into and West Asia & East Asia and Oceania merging into the East Asian grouping. At the last WC all the AFC nations were from East Asia as were the top 3 teams at the 2011 Asian Cup (Uzbekistan is North Asia & probably more West Asia). I'm sure FIFA and the West Asian (mainly Arab) nations will not be happy if West Asia continues to miss out on the biggest party in sport.
George Mladenov
Guest
I agree with everything that you have said. My main point is that the CONCACAF illuminati went into that executive meeting with a plan. They wanted either a) an extra half spot to have 4 direct entrants, or b) to change the playoff system so that they avoid South America (which everybody would rather do). What plan did the Asia and Oceania execs enter with? Nothing! They incorrectly assumed that the status quo would remain. Infact, the AFC announced two years ago that the format for 2014 qualification would be the same as in 2010. CONCACAF announced a few months ago that their hexagonal would be no more based on the assumption of 4 direct entracts. CONCACAF will have an initial playoff stage to get to 32 teams, then 8 groups of 4, top 2 advancing to the next stage with 4 groups of 4, top two advancing to the final stage where there would be 2 groups of 8. If their plan of an upgrade in allocation failed, which it did, then 2nd in each group will have a playoff to determine who qualifies, and who goes into the intercontinental playoff. It would benefit Asia to have 5 teams at the World Cup. It would benefit New Zealand/Oceania if they could remove themselves from the coin toss of a playoff against an Asian team (or the difficult task of a trip to South America), by enterting the final round of AFC qualifying. Now I have proposed that the winners and runners up of the OFC Nations Cup take up spots 11 and 12 in an expanded Fourth Round of AFC qualifying to give Oceania added incentive of signing up. We could simply add another 4 AFC teams to the Round 3 group stage, to get 11 AFC teams into Round 4 plus New Zealand as an alternative. This way New Zealand would have a 40% chance of direct qualification in a group stage, or a 20% chance of coming 3rd and facing qualification in the AFC playoff. Everybody would win.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
I've just given you evidence that CONCACAF can beat the Sth Americans (I think you made a typing error, but I understand what you mean). Costa Rica were 1 goal away from beating the Sth Americans. I actually watched this game LIVE on the internet and Costa Rica had numerous chances to win 1-2 and qualify on the Away Goals rule. In 1994 & 2002, Oceania lost to the Sth Americans ... CONCACAF were not involved in these play-offs. And, I should add, both these occasions Oceania (Australia) were 1 goal away from a result. 1994: We played the current World Champions, Argentina led by Diego Maradona and got a 1-1 draw at home; then lost 1-0 in Buenos Aires to one an incredible piece of bad luck when Alex Tobin scored an own goal. I also recall Argentina should have had a player sent off for being the last man and fouling Carl Veart as he was racing into goal. 2002: We beat Uruguay at home 1-0. And, even though we were totally outplayed in Montevideo the TIE was in the balance right until the 90' when Morales scored Uruguay's 3rd. When the score was at 2-0 all we had to do was score 1 goal and we went through on the Away Goals rule. Playing the 5th placed Sth American nation is not easy, but getting to a World Cup should not be easy.
George Mladenov
Guest
I'm well aware of what transpired in Washington. There is no evidence to use to suggest that South America would beat CONCACAF in a intercontinental playoff, other than to look at the past and to make an informed judgement. The fact is that the South American representative has qualified 75% of the time. Argentina in 1994, Uruguay in 2002 and 2010. The one time the South American representative did not qualify, it took a penalty shoot out to defeat them (Australia 2006). Outside of the US and Mexico, the quality in CONCACAF football drops significantly. Be it Costa Rica, Trinidad, Honduras, El Salvador, Jamaica, Panama or Canada - all of these teams in all likelihood would win a playoff against Uruguay or Chile, or in the altitude of Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador, where the traditional heavyweights like Brazil and Argentina get beaten. Frankly the point I was trying to convey is that nobody wants to play South America, because frankly it is almost mission impossible for all teams. If the football politicians of Asia (Hammam and Wowrudi from Thailand) or Oceania (Chung) went into that Executive meeting with a plan, they could have ensured an easier path to Brazil for both Conferations. Avoid South America, integrate Asia and Oceania as it was 30 years ago, easier path for Asian teams, more Oceanian representation.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
georgemladenov What evidence do you have that a CONCACAF team does not stand a chance in qualifying against a South American team? Let's review what occurred on the way to WC2010 Uruguay was the 5th placed team in the CONMEBOL group after the qualification process and they had to go for a final play-off against Costa Rica. The Costa Ricans should never have been in that situation ... as, so often happens, it all came down to the final game of qualifiers and, for Costa Rica ... the final minute of the final game. Costa Rica had to beat the USA - away from home - to qualify, whilst the USA had already qualified. After 23' the Ricans were up 0-2 and Sth Africa beckoned. But, just as Australia found out in 1997, a 2-nil lead is the most dangerous score in football. The USA, who had nothing to play for, scored in the 71', but at 2-1 the Ricans were still going to the WC. Then, in the 94' of the game, the USA equalised and the Ricans were relegated to the play off. And, in the playoff with Uruguay, the Ricans lost 0-1 at home and drew 1-1 away. So, the 4th placed CONCACAF team was pretty handy against Uruguay and, we all know, Uruguay finished 4th at WC2010!