It’s fair to say Mick Malthouse has one last big challenge ahead of him in his final season as the Pies’ senior coach. But can his side rise to that challenge?
Well, improvement at the club last year came from three main sources: superb recruiting, significant improvement from a number of previously-unheralded players, and the revolutionary “Mick’s box” game plan.
Of these three areas, only one looks like having a similar impact in 2011.
Thanks to the luring of Chris Tarrant back from Fremantle and the landing of WAFL sensation (and former Richmond player) Andrew Krakouer, the Pies look set to continue their great recruiting run, which last year saw Darren Jolly and Luke Ball arrive at the club.
With no Simon Prestigiacomo due to retirement and no Nathan Brown due to a season-ending knee injury, Tarrant – who was moulded into a fine key defender at Freo – is a perfect addition. Krakouer, meanwhile, not only won last year’s Sandover Medal by eight votes, his 40 touches and four goals had him best on ground in Swan District’s one-point grand final win – he’ll be more than handy for Collingwood.
Outside this area, it’s hard to see the same number of breakout years we saw last year.
Sharrod Wellingham, Steele Sidebottom, Dayne Beams, Ben Reid, Chris Dawes, Nathan Brown, Leigh Brown and Jarryd Blair all blossomed at the perfect time in 2010. While many of these players have improvement ahead of them, a repetition of what occurred last year – so many players rising to the occasion over the course of the season – won’t happen.
Worryingly, the Pies only had one player make their debut last year – easily the lowest number in the competition – however perhaps that’s a problem more likely to affect Nathan Buckley in coming years than Malthouse this year.
Likewise, the gap between Collingwood and the rest of the competition created by Mick’s box won’t be so large this year.
In 2010, through pushing numbers to their half of the ground, the Pies generated 30.5 turnovers in their forward half per game (5.2 more than any other team). They also scored a whopping 43.8 points from these turnovers (11.8 more than any other team).
Given other clubs have had a whole off-season to learn from and adapt to Collingwood’s game plan, the advantage held last year could be wiped. Certainly, we’ve seen in recent years how the entire competition was able to adapt to “Clarko’s Cluster” following Hawthorn’s 2008 premiership and St Kilda’s renowned “frontal pressure” after their strong 2009 season.
All this is not to say the Pies will come crashing down to Earth this year. Far from it. What this does illustrate, though, is that winning to premiership won’t be the “cakewalk” some are anticipating.
The Pies do have plenty going for them. They seem to have the perfect blend of youth and experience – last year’s team was the youngest premiership side since 1978, yet the Pies have been in every finals series since 2006.
Their backline stood up well last year and always seemed to have numbers. Throw in Tarrant and the confidence players like Ben Reid will get from winning a premiership and another solid year is to be expected.
Their midfield may be the target of Kevin Sheedy and GWS, but assuming that won’t be a distraction, it’s hard not to see the likes of Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and company picking up where they left off. In addition, the much-hyped midfield depth and rotation capabilities should be of even more benefit this year with changes to the interchange system.
The forward line is an area which should be watched closely. While the Pies weren’t punished for their inaccurate kicking at the business end of last season, they mightn’t be so lucky this time around.
So far, though, so good. The Pies have cruised into the NAB Cup final and aren’t showing any signs of having dropped off.
The opportunity is there for other teams to close the gap, that much can’t be denied. However, those other teams all have plenty of question marks of their own hanging over their heads.
Right now, it’s hard to bet against the Pies.
Redb
Roar Guru
Wishful thinking is on behalf of Collingwood supporters. The 2010 premiership has thrown a huge spanner in the works to this transition. Malthouse wont go quielty into the night as many beleive.
"It has to be remembered, and this is not an identical situation but rather a similar one, Paul Roos has just effectively handed the baton to John Longmire." Michael I don't see how it is relevant to even bring it up. The only "similar" quality is that one coach handed over to another an event that takes place almost every year (admittedly under different circumstances.) In 2009 Swans were 12th and Collingwood 4th. At the end of 2010 Swans were 5th and Colliwobbles 1st. So Mick Malthouse can equal or slip from last year's effort but can not improve whilst Longmire can go in any direction. (IMO probably down.)
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
It has to be remembered, and this is not an identical situation but rather a similar one, Paul Roos has just effectively handed the baton to John Longmire. At the time it was announced, the parallels were drawn to the Malthouse-Buckley arrangement. So, if Malthouse's final season is anything like Roos', it won't be an issue in 2011. The Swans exceeded pretty much everyone's expectations of them last year. As for what happens when Buckley takes over, well, let's see if Longmire can "maintain" making the eight... As I said though, it's not an identical situation, just similar, so it's probably not wise to read too much into it.
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
It's an unusual situation, a successful coach handing over the baton - none of us really know how it's going to go. One thing I know for sure, as we saw when the Brumbies sacked Nucifora having just won the Super Rugby, when you take over a team that is already number one, you either maintain the ranking, or you slip - there are no other mathematical possibilities.
MagpieFlag
Guest
As I thought, pure wishful speculation!!!
Richard
Roar Guru
I'll bet you the coaching handover works very well at Collingwood. There is a corporate sophistication at Collingwood FC these days which other clubs envy, and so they should. It's not just the coaching, but the resources, the leadership, the background karma which enables success. That's what's good at good ol' Collingwood these days, and that's why the coaching changeover will be smooth and without the rancour we have seen at other clubs. The changeover(s) at Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide and Richmond were all badly handled in very amateurish fashion. And look at the mess they've made at Brisbane. Some other clubs do get it. The Swans is another club which is very well run and along corporate lines. Pie haters have been bitching about the Collingwood way for years. Up until last year they were all pilloring Malthouse for his style, playing along the boundary instead of straight down the middle like Geelong. Now they're copying the Pies. I noticed Essendon adopting that boundary line style in the NAB cup this year. Which only goes to show that "nothing succeeds like success". Hope all you like for a Collingwood meltdown in 2012, but baby, it ain't goin' to happen. Bookmark that.
simonjzw
Roar Pro
Every year it's hard to see the previous year's premiers being beaten when the season rolls around but the facts are that Back to Back premierships don't come along all that often - it's a very difficult competition to win. The Pies will be very strong this year and no doubt will finish in the top 4 which will give them a great opportunity. But from that point on luck with form and injuries during the finals has an enormous influence and probably each of the teams who finish in the top 4 this year will have an even chance to take out the cup. I can't wait.
Redb
Roar Guru
MagpieFlag, Its this year or forget it becuase like Geelong they will lose their no 1 or 2 midfielder to GWS and the coaching handover will be anything but pretty. Eddie knows it, Mick Malthouse knows it, Buckley will find out the hard way. 2012 - the season the Pies will want to forget. Bookmark it. So it's 2011 or bust for good ol' Collingwood.
MagpieFlag
Guest
second youngest premier in history i suspect his conviction is based on some "knowing" about Buckley's coaching ability
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
Well, he has history on his side - the premiership windows are readily defined, they rarely go beyond half a decade. Having said that, the Collingwood list is quite youthful - so they are as good as any team of the past 8 years to repeat the Lions' hatrick - still, a very big ask.
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
You don't exactly expect sympathy and words of encouragement from us, do you?? :)
MagpieFlag
Guest
Sorry, do you have any logic in support of: "As for the Pies it’s this year or forget it."? I suspect a large dose of wishful thinking for a side that does not have a midfielder on their list who will be apart of their next premiership contention!
MagpieFlag
Guest
Haha,the "pressure game plan"... Collingwood's premiership was developed over several years and "the pressure game plan" is but a small part and it is a lot more sophisticated than this name suggests. When was the last time an imitator of the previous premier won a flag? And are you including the bombers there? I hope you are!
Australian Football: Central Coast Represent
Guest
I reckon. Unless they get hit by a few injuries to there star players, they wont be beaten. They are head and shoulders above every other team. It pains me to say it but they will most likely go back to back, maybe back to back to back.
Stam
Guest
Supercoach league??
Richard
Roar Guru
Yeah, good work Tom.
Tom Dimanis
Roar Pro
Hi all, I've created a Dream Team League for Roar writers and readers. The league code is: 581776. Get on!
Stam
Guest
I don't know just yet, I think the interchange rules might help saints, then again it may just be wishful thinking...
Redb
Roar Guru
i doubt you'll get your wish this season. The Saints are too slow and other teams are deploying similiar defensive structures and they cant kick enough goals now. As for the Pies it's this year or forget it.
The only things that can prevent them from back to back premierships are a huge amount of injuries or an even worse kicking performance than last year. As I pointed out in another article, all of the six games they did not win ,could be attributed to poor kicking. Presti and Brown are big losses but Andrew Krakouer and Chis Tarrant are great inclusions and with the master tactician, Mick Malthouse, at the helm it is hard to see them getting beaten.