My tip for 2011? Western Bulldogs to be premiers

Shaun Higgins of the Western Bulldogs and Clinton Young of Hawthorn in action during the AFL Round 14 match between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Images

Already this pre-season I’ve stated Collingwood are “hard to bet against” and Hawthorn “will be a major threat”. It’s time to stop sitting on the fence. It’s time to man up and say who I really think will lift the premiership cup this October – the Western Bulldogs.

That’s right. The team that has been to three-straight preliminary finals – and never made the grand final all three years – will go all the way this year.

The internal expectation, as Dogs president David Smorgon told the Footy Show last week, is that they “have to play in a grand final”. They are not only capable of achieving that goal, they are capable of going one better.

While there was a noticeable gap between the Dogs and the three sides above them last year, judging them on their performance last season is a pointless exercise. At the start of the year a lot was riding on Brad Johnson and Jason Akermanis, and clearly things didn’t work out on either front.

Then there were the injury concerns, such as Adam Cooney’s knee and hamstring, Shaun Higgins’ battles with illness and the Etihad Stadium surface, Dale Morris’ back problems and Brian Lake’s many niggling concerns – there were some sick puppies in 2010.

Combine all that with the fact the introduction of Barry Hall threw the previous forward line structure out the window – which had a major impact – and you can understand there were reasons why the Bulldogs were off the pace last year.

The simple truth that has to be remembered when it comes to the Western Bulldogs is this: they have quality players in every area of the ground.

Think about it. This is a side that has the All-Australian full back – who is surrounded by some very handy defenders – plus another All-Australian at full forward – who is surrounded by some very handy forwards – and an elite midfield in between that includes a former Brownlow winner.

And, better still, thanks to new recruits and some impressive young talent, the list is capable of major improvement.

Let’s start with the midfield. The proven talent running around includes Adam Cooney, new captain Matthew Boyd, best and fairest winner Ryan Griffen, Daniel Cross and Liam Picken. That’s not a bad starting point.

Now, look at where the improvement is going to come from – impressive youngster Callan Ward managed only ten games last year and has been on fire this pre-season, Higgins will be free to rotate through the middle this year, Justin Sherman has been brought in from the Brisbane Lions, father-son picks Mitch Wallis and Tom Liberatore will (at the very least) add even further depth.

The Dogs’ midfield was already one of the best in the comp. But it’s been beefed up for 2011.

Let’s move on to the forward line. Admittedly, this was one area of the ground last year that was far from league’s best. Hall dominated, as his 80-goal tally would suggest, but the support was lacking.

Looking ahead, though, the forward line is set for more improvement this year than the midfield. The club is committed to sharing the goal kicking load more this season which will have a positive effect, Jarrad Grant will take a lot from a full season last year and have more of an impact, new recruits Nathan Djerkurra and Patrick Veszpremi – both from other AFL clubs – will add depth, same goes for 21 year-old draftee Zephaniah Skinner and of course, Higgins is back to being fit.

Throw in the danger to opposition defenders presented by Daniel Giansiracusa, and the Dogs’ forward line looks set for a big year.

Then there’s the backline. Although the loss of Jarrod Harbrow will be felt and Lake’s nonexistent pre-season may be an issue, there’s a lot to like down back.

Morris and Tom Williams offer great support for Lake, giving the Dogs plenty of options when it comes to containing opposition key forwards. Of the smaller defenders, Lindsay Gilbee and Robert Murphy are both superb footballers. Improvement looks set to come from Williams, who will take confidence from putting together a full season last year, and 21 year-old Easton Wood, who – much like Ward in the midfield – appears ready for breakout season.

To be fair, the ruck division is of some concern, given a lot depends on Ben Hudson putting together another strong year at 32. That said, Jordan Roughead looks like he has a future, you can mark him down as yet another Bulldog with breakout potential.

Now, sure, it is a tad concerning that in three consecutive attempts the Bulldogs haven’t been able to advance to a grand final.

But the same could be said of Port Adelaide in 2004, a side that had three years of threatening yet not being able to get the job done in September. The same could be said of Geelong in 2007, who first made a prelim appearance in ’04 yet struggled in the two years after. The same could also be said of Collingwood in 2010, a side that made two of the three previous preliminary final weekends.

It’s far from unusual for sides to have to wait for their chance to win a grand final. With only two players at the club 30 or older, the Bulldogs’ premiership window is definitely not shut.

A legitimate worry is that in recent years, the premiership team has typically been able to advance the game tactically in some way (think Collingwood last year or Hawthorn in 2008). At this stage, we have no idea if the Dogs – or anyone for that matter – have this year’s equivalent to Clarko’s Cluster or not.

Nonetheless, game plan-wise, coach Rodney Eade is saying the right things. He’s stressed the need to find more avenues to goal, he’s suggested the Dogs will tackle more and ramp up the pressure and he seems confident the new sub rule will favour his side.

Finally, mention has to be made of the Dogs’ dream draw. They start the season facing Essendon, Brisbane and Gold Coast, while they only have to face Collingwood, St Kilda and Geelong once each. This will assist them greatly in the home and away season.

For mine, it’ll be the year of the Dog. If this works out anything like this prediction from this time last year, then David Smorgon will be a very happy man.

Following Michael Filosi’s lead yesterday, here’s the rest of my tips:

Top Eight
1. Collingwood
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Hawthorn
4. St Kilda
5. Geelong
6. Carlton
7. Adelaide
8. Fremantle

Premiers – Western Bulldogs
Runners Up – Collingwood
Wooden Spoon – Brisbane Lions
Brownlow Medal – Joel Selwood (Geelong)
Coleman Medal – Lance Franklin (Hawthorn)
Rising Star Winner – David Swallow (Gold Coast)
Big Improver – Adelaide
Big Slider – Sydney
Big Question Mark – Geelong. While a new coach should get more out of the playing group than another year of Thompson – and some tinkering with the game plan won’t hurt – there are quite a few players in the 29-and-over age bracket and some younger talent will need to start putting their hands up. The Cats could go either way.