Dale Thomas of Collingwood marks over Daniel jackson of Richmond during the AFL Round 04 match between the Richmond Tigers and the Collingwood Magpies at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Images
After seven rounds of football, Collingwood are still the raging favourite to win this year’s premiership. No surprises there – they’ve been in fine form – but if we are to dig a little deeper, it’s not unreasonable to suggest they may even be a better side to what they were last season.
That’s because the biggest question mark hovering over the Pies last year and even going into this year – their goal kicking – has been addressed.
In fact, it’s been more than addressed. They are now the best in the competition at it.
The stats say that 58.08 per cent of Collingwood’s scoring shots are goals, the highest figure in the competition. The next highest club, Essendon at 57.77 per cent, are only as high as they are because of a 31.11 game against the Gold Coast Suns. Outside of the Pies and Bombers, no side presently in the top eight has an accuracy rate above 50 per cent.
Perhaps more remarkable than that, there have been only three quarters this season where Collingwood have scored more behinds than goals.
Even Travis Cloke, seemingly the chief offender last season on this topic, has kicked 16.7. The other two players at the top of the club’s goal kicking list are Chris Dawes (with 14.7) and Jarryd Blair (12.5).
This is in stark contrast to 2010, the year Pies put in performances such as: a 4.17 game against St Kilda, a 6.14 game against Geelong, a 9.22 game against Melbourne and, of course, that 9.14 game against St Kilda in Grand Final Mk I. Let’s not forget the Pies would not have needed a replay had they kicked straight the first time around.
After all that, going into this year, it was hard not to think of goal kicking as a serious question mark for this team. I don’t think we can say that anymore.
That said, you could still describe the Pies as “vulnerable”. As the team they play tonight, Geelong, can attest, being the dominant side of the competition while attempting to go back to back doesn’t always have a fairytale ending – the Cats lost just one game in 2008 prior to that Grand Final against Hawthorn, and we all know how that turned out.
There’s two lessons to take from the ’08 example. The first is that complacency can be a very dangerous thing; sides need to be challenged and remember, the Pies’ game plan hasn’t changed dramatically since last year.
The second lesson is that sometimes the dominance of a side at the top of the ladder can mask the threats that lurk below them.
So let’s not go handing the 2011 premiership to the Pies just yet.
To their credit, however, when the best reason you can muster for a professionally-run club like Collingwood not to win the premiership is the potential for complacency, well, they probably stand a pretty good chance.
As for tonight’s blockbuster, we’ll get an interesting glimpse at where Chris Scott’s Cats stand against the benchmark team of the competition.
Their undefeated start has been impressive, although Leigh Matthews was right to worry about the side’s key forwards in his AFL.com.au column this week. Put simply, more is needed from the trio of James Podsiadly, Tom Hawkins and Cam Mooney.
Normally I would tip Collingwood for this game without any hesitation. However, I’m holding back – tipping Collingwood in a close one – for a few reasons.
Firstly, the stats paint a very interesting picture about teams coming off the bye – not just in the AFL, but the VFL, WAFL and SANFL, too – so the Pies would be forgiven if they too struggled with it. The expected wet weather – a factor that almost always favours Geelong – throws another curveball into the equation.
Add that to the fact Darren Jolly is out – while Brad Ottens is fit and firing for the Cats – and I’ll predict only a 15-point Collingwood win.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
The only thing I agree with is 'the evil black and white.' :P :D
amazonfan
Roar Guru
"But when you take into account the fact that clubs and the league are a BUSINESS it makes sense to try and maximise their profit." Not really. I mean, yes, the clubs do have to make money to survive, but the clubs and the AFL are not a business in the sense that they aren't for-profit. The business aspect is to ensure that they can survive and to enable them to compete as aggressively for the flag as possible, but their raison d'être is not to make profits. Same for the AFL; their raison d'être is to support and to develop as great a competition as humanly possible and to support, promote and develop Australian Football. I think the clubs and the AFL can best be compared to charities.
Liam Quinn
Roar Pro
I'm sure Geelong wouldn't be complaining when they count the gate takings from Friday's 81+ thousands crowd. It's the same reason Collingwood play most of their games at the MCG - the opposing teams love the revenue! It's not Collingwood's fault that they've built the biggest fan base in the league. Also, after next week, you'll find that Collingwood will have played 2 of their first 4 home games at Etihad Stadium - including the season opener! Which I will remind you isn't Collingwood's home-ground. In a perfect world that didn't involve clubs and the league needing to make money to survive, I'm sure we'd see teams playing at Skilled Stadium, Arden Street, Punt Road, WIndy Hill, Victoria Park, etc. But when you take into account the fact that clubs and the league are a BUSINESS it makes sense to try and maximise their profit.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
What is also annoying is that some people think that Collingwood's winning the flag is a fait accompli. Not only is it a long season, but there are plenty of examples (1999, 2001, 2008, 2009) of favourites failing to win the flag.
Peter Wilson
Roar Guru
Exactly redb, as a cats home game, why wasn't it played at Skilled Park. Is this a football competition or a means to make the most amount of money for Collingwood and the AFL Commissioners in the shortest space of time?
Swampy
Guest
Hee hee hee - nice work Geelong. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
ChrisH
Guest
How do you form this ridiculous opinion? Geelong has just beaten them, Hawthorn beat them late last year. Are we talking about the same team?
lew
Guest
Can someone, anyone, explain how the powers that be, entrusted to oversee the well-being and health of "the game", can then entrust it's reputation, and publicity to 7, and, like last year, up here, in Brisbane, have them screen their showcase "game of the year" after 11 o'clock - after such raters as "Ghost Town" and "That 70's Show" have us "screaming for snore" - when any self-respecting Queenslander is too tired and emotional to know black from blue, or otherwise "distracted", like in bed? Ever see "Tommy" ("The Who")? "Do you think it's all right, To leave the boy with uncle Kerry?"?
Redb
Roar Guru
It's a Geelong home game, dolt.
Peter Wilson
Roar Guru
Just how many games are Collingwood going to play in Melbourne at the MCG? Do Collingwood ever play an AFL game outside of Melbourne. Talk about milking it for all its worth.
Redb
Roar Guru
I don't agree from an Essendon perspective, whilst it would have been good to stay at Windy Hill in some ways (less expensive option), a considerable movement of generations has occured out towards the airport so it's not a non Essendon demographic. On the Tulla Freeway from Mt Alexanders Rd (Essendon heartland) it would be ten minutes to Melrose Dve. Essendon will have state of the art facilities, two ovals (MCG & Etihad size) and a brand new entertainment complex. The existing Windy Hill social club was fine for the 1970s. As for North I doubt they'll have too many problems given a brand new training facility just opened at Arden St. The position is not as important as the facility. Collingwood have leapt ahead due to the modern facilities not the position. Most Pie fans would come from Melbourne's northern suburbs, the Lexus Centre is walking distance from Toorak - hardly their demographic.
Mitchell Levien
Guest
I am a geelong fan but I fear that Collingwood will get the better of them tonight. Collingwood seem to be able to kick with precision close to the 50 mark, their ball movement is unbelievable and they can do it with great speed. When the pressure is put on Geelong they tend to turn it over quite a bit and this will hurt Geelong. I am confident Collingwood will get the win tonight and i am going to tip them to win by 33 points with a close contest up until the final quarter.
Swampy
Guest
Collingwood are unmatched this season and if I was a supporter of the evil black and white I'd be accepting nothing less than an unbeaten season all the way to the flag. Geelong are clearly 2nd best and it drops way way away after that. Should Collingwood lose a game somewhere along the way then heads should roll at Olympic Park. It's beyond depressing for me that this may be the scenario for the next three years as gold coast and GWS scoop up all tradeable talent and every kid under 18 that can tie their own shoelaces. Collingwood might be in the enviable position of going unbeaten for three seasons. When Father Mick bequests the reigns to the favorite son Nathan then we might not see Buckley actually lose a match until 2014. Go Cats. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Bear
Guest
Sherrin-Burley-Faulkner: In Victoria, apart from Collingwood, all the teams that have moved recently or will move in the near future are doing so further away from the city centre - Hawthorn to Waverly, St Kilda to Seaford, Melbourne to Casey Fields and Essendon soon to Melb Airport. Whilst l understand the need for clubs to make these moves, the end result just seems that we end up with sanitized behemoth run by media (spin) departments that are now or will be further away from their supporter base. So yeah, teams lose a bit of their souls moving out to the boondocks - except for Collingwood. They were fortunate (or just very forward thinking) to move in to the Westpac Centre, close to the city centre where many of their fans can access their facilities quite easily. Richmond have held out at Punt Rd, Carlton at Princess Park and Geelong at Kardinia Park. Footscray appear safe at Whitten oval for the moment irrespective of their financial situation - long may this continue. How long can Nth Melb hold onto their ground?
Searly
Guest
As a PIes fan, I have to say that they definitely are vulnerable, but as Happy Hooker points out: no team is ever completely NOT vulnerable, especially against a side that has won two out of the past four flags (shoulda been three!). BUT, I think Mick would be very comfortable with where they're at right now. He has been very clear that he's not interested in them playing their best footy in May, but that they'll work into the season to peak in September. That alone should scare the rest of the comp, considering they're still undefeated with a massive percentage, yet by their own admission not even trying to hit top gear! I think that also has a lot to do with Michael's feeling that their game plan hasn't changed much since last year. On the one hand, you could argue with some justification that: why would you change a winning formula?, but everyone knows (especially Mick Malthouse) that to stand still is to go backwards in this gig and he won't be allowing that for the whole season. I'm tipping that, come September, the Pies will have developed a game plan that, whilst building on the strengths of last season, will in some ways be quite new and different. Some may look at it and declare it revolutionary, like they did with last season's forward press. One thing's for sure, they won't be just churning out the same old stuff and hoping to fall across the line on the first Saturday in October.
Sherrin-Burley-Faulkner
Guest
Colliwobbles are now a thing of the past (until of course they return !), quite clearly they have been passed on to St Kilda, who have improved and refined them. Collingwood are just marking time, bored with the competition or lack there of, waiting to stake flag 2 in a row, Pies by 25 points tonight in hopefully a good game. BTW just read that Collingwood has over 70,000 members this year, how will they all fit into Victoria Park. Has Collingwoods soul been lost since moving from their spiritual home, and are they no longer a football team but now just Collingwood inc ?. Will Essendon be the same after moving from Windy Hill.
ChrisH
Guest
Agree mate, praise in one direction isn't criticism in another, but my comment is directed to the now numerous articles written containing nothing short of hyperbole. Describing this team as one of the best of all time I've read in various parts. On this site if I remember correctly too. It becomes a little frustrating after a while.
Redb
Roar Guru
Pies defence is too good, they have quality rebounders with accurate skills even if the Cats win the clearances. They then the have the twin towers if they do get it forward both of whom are very good contested marks.
Happy Hooker
Guest
What the hell are you smokin' Fab? I hate Collingwood, but they are the best team in the competition by a significant margin. That does not necessarily mean they will win the last game of the season. They are not unbeatable - any team is liable to be beaten on any given day - but to describe them as "vulnerable" is absolute tosh. Some other team might beat them? Wow, thanks for that insightful observation.
By saying Collingwood are a good team doesn't detract from the good/great teams of the past. I agree with you that people seem to go over the top about the preceding years Grand Final winner but what is the closest in memory is the easiest to remember. Collingwood have to string a few Grand Final wins together to be considered a "great" team.