That happened to me over the weekend, and it was all on the back of just two games.
This won’t sound like that bold a prediction, and admittedly, there’s still an element of uncertainty about it, but here it is nevertheless: the Super Rugby title can only be won by one of the conference leaders.
Earth-shattering in its audaciousness, I know.
Now yes, the four or five teams still in the hunt for a wildcard finals spot still have a theoretical chance of taking the title, but in my humble opinion, they’re just not playing championship-winning rugby. The difference between the likes of the Bulls and Sharks and Waratahs and Highlanders and say, the Reds, is just too great now.
On Saturday night, I finally got to see the Stormers and their resplendent hooped jerseys first hand, and I walked away convinced of their credentials.
Never getting out of second gear, the Stormers played this game much like the Waratahs played the second half against the Lions the other week, with conservation in mind. The Stormers minimised their risks in attack, simplified their defence at the breakdown, and emptied their bench long before time.
The Brumbies may ambitiously put this game down as one that got away, but they’d be lonely, glass-overflowing optimists if they did. The Stormers were never in danger.
In attack, the Stormers played the percentages, kept it simple, and showed the type of patience that hasn’t been seen from the Canberra Stadium home dressing room this season at all.
Late in the first half, the Stormers piled on easily fifteen-plus phases on the Brumbies line just with one-out hit-ups, recycled pick-and-drives and constant questioning of the surprisingly good defence. They did the same thing just after half-time, and were rewarded with Francois Louw’s try.
It was their defence that really left the impression on me though. On the odd occasion where the Brumbies maintained possession, the Stormers simply controlled proceedings by minimising their numbers in the tackle, barely competed at the breakdown, and spread their numbers out so that they were essentially defending one on one.
The Brumbies best effort produced an enormous number of phases (some reports had it as high as 31), yet the Stormers were never troubled, and the play came to an end not with a try, but a Brumbies mistake. It was an enormous moment in the game, one built on belief and unwavering trust among the team to work together as a unit.
The Stormers are clearly the best side in South Africa, for mine, and are well equipped to turn around last year’s Final defeat.
The Reds, having now accounted for the Crusaders in a Sunday afternoon thriller, are practically assured of taking out the Australian cup. The Waratahs may still have a mathematical chance, but I think we all know it’s uphill for them now.
The Reds haven’t played finals football since 2001, but they’re going to end that drought in Quade Cooper-led style, and remain a better than even chance to finish the regular season in pole position. That’s something they haven’t done since 1999, when John Eales was literally still running around in short pants.
If there is one chink in the Reds armour, it remains their set piece play. Against the Crusaders the worst of it was all there on display; the scrum couldn’t always cope with the virtual All Black pack, and the lineout throwing at times was as consistent as a Mitchell Johnson over.
The Reds more than make up for these shortcomings in attack though, and having watched some pretty ordinary ball skills from Australian teams this year, it astounds me the way the Reds always seem to hold on to the pass that four out of five teams would invariably drop.
In front of an Australian record crowd on Sunday afternoon, they did what many a team have tried and failed: they out-McCawed Richie McCaw. Beau Robinson (until injured), Scott Higginbotham and Radike Samo were outstanding at the breakdown, and if the Reds do go all the way in 2011 the plaudits will deservedly go the way of their unheralded backrow.
Where my bold-ish prediction falls over, though, is the New Zealand conference. While the Blues keep hold of the top spot thanks to the bye and the Crusaders loss, I’m still not game to completely rule out the pride of Christchurch coming home with a wet sail.
The Blues have had a cracking season – second spot on the overall standings is just reward – but for no particular reason, they still don’t ‘feel’ like the real deal to me yet. That said, they’ll become a difficult proposition if they snare a semi at Eden Park, where a last gasp two point loss to the Stormers last round is the only blot on their copybook.
Of course, we all know the Crusaders’ record come finals time, and despite now dropping a full bonus point win below the Blues, a bye this coming round and a game against the Blues represent chances to peg points back.
The pursuit for the pointy end is well and truly on, and as is always the case in Super Rugby, gaining that home final is going to be crucial. The teams finishing in the wildcard spots will still be liking their chances, but for mine, winning away is going to be all that more difficult again.
It’s a race in three for the title, in my mind, I just don’t know which New Zealand team to put the line through just yet.
soapit
Guest
he did say looking at the big picture
soapit
Guest
6 weeks is very light. you can kill people with those choke holds. bloody stupid thing to do. i could see the linesman screaming to try to get carter to not smash the guy in the face in retaliation after he was let go and you couldnt blame him if he did.
Suzy Poison
Guest
Yes Wal and Harry, the Saffas (never one for lacking confidence) are calling it the Saffa results "MASSIVE MAY" Out of the 12 cross-conference games the Saffa teams were involved in during May, they won nine. That 75% strike-rate is proof that despite early season wobbles, the Saffas are getting it right, when it counts, at the business end of the competition. Regardless, the Crusaders or Reds will win the comp, methinks.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
Yea thanks for bringing up ’96 & ’99 OJ! Like I needed reminding!
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Are the Highlanders drawing record crowds to Super Rugby in New Zealand? No? Well, like the Reds they could sure as hell use it.
Bayboy
Guest
To be classed a success OJ the actually would need to win something right? If not you could also say the Highlanders are a success as they are very much improved since last year and are now in a similar position to the Reds last year. As yet the Reds have absolutely nothing to show after 15 years of Super Rugby that is very likely to change come finals this year. However until the final hooter sounds at the end of 80 minutes of the final in 2015 the Reds are still also rans, nearly there not quite all the way as with 11 other Franchises who have absolutely nothing to show for their part in Super Rugby. Plenty of teams have been on the cusp to fall at the last hurdle would you label these teams successes? If not why not?
BennO
Guest
Fair comment Wal, but they pushed the tournament leaders at home to the final whistle without those three. They might not have the electric attack of earlier rounds but their composure and big match players still make them favourites for me.
Wal The Hooker
Guest
Suzy the Lions are roaring! Not convinced the Saders will take it this year, agree with OJ. They're just not the same team and missing those backs is really becoming acutely obvious. No point having having a good pack if the backs can't finish... The Reds deserve to be where they are and on form you'd have to pick them IMO. You're right too about SA teams coming home strong... Will be a very interesting month ahead.
Wal The Hooker
Guest
Totally disagree BO, Saders strike power is immensely limited without the finishing of Maitland, Dagg. Look at those early rounds those 3 Dagg, Guilford, Maitland combined so well on counter attack and also seem to pop up at the right time to score off SBW, Fruaen or anybody else who makes a break. Evident on the weekend they missed Ellis and the back 3... That's rugger
johnny-boy
Guest
I think it may have been alluded to by Suzy P previously but there may be an perverse advantage in having a so called 'tough' conference it that it toughens the tough conference teams up, especially for finals or world cup rugby. Balanced against possibly copping more injuries, although surprisingly the All Black doctors apparently seem to think there are no more injuries in NZ than usual. There's always swings and roundabouts
WayneO
Guest
The Reds seem to be the real deal this year. Although they have been exposed at the set pieces, they have belief. Whilst not a condition to win, belief can take you down a winning route. This belief was tested last weekend, but they passed the test. Whilst there are the inevitable cries of foul due to the final penalty, it stands that some unexplainable kicking errors from Cooper left it to that last decision. Just one of those unlikely misses could have taken the ref out of the equation. That said, the Reds will be the lone Aussie contender. The Crusaders will get there too. So too should the Blues. The SA comp is more complicated. The Stormers are there. The Sharks and the Bulls are questionable. They are both a shot, but the Sharks choke in acid tests. For the record they are my team. The Bulls have the experience. That leaves me wondering-can there be a chance for the Tahs? The heart says no, but there will be 6 teams in the end, but I can't call it. That aside, the Stormers season has been built on defense, but surely an attacking side must win this thing? Tell me which team is the fittest and I'll tell you who will win it. Oh, and the team with a home final! This could be the Reds or the Stormers. Hang on, what about the Blues. I'm going with the cynics. Give me a SA ref at Kings Park. Sharks by a whisker. Actually, the Stormers have the ability but what about the belief. Reds to win based on attitude and belief and a Warstahs coach that was shafted. Poetic justice! -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
The Reds have worked hard to get themselves into this position and deserve to top the table. I won't mention what happened the past two times they topped the table ;) but they're my pick to win the title. The Crusaders are getting waaay too much respect on this site. Back in March they were the best team in the competition but they haven't been the same since the Twickenham match. Stepping back and looking at the big picture, the Reds' success is prove that Super rugby can draw and that it doesn't take a decade to turn a franchise around. There's lessons to be learned there for the New Zealand franchises who are struggling to draw. Success breeds success.
AJ
Guest
So,according to Reds detractors,they aren't good enough to win,but,should they do it,it will be undeserved due to the weaker conference.Or the myriad other advantages they have received. How about this?The Reds will have to play some other rugby teams in one or two finals.Both teams will have 15 players on a regulation field. May the best team win........And all the whingers shut the f### up.
PeterK
Roar Guru
what do you mean, I just agreed they have been dreadful and abysmal :) No Jerry, I have said before that it IS very relevant to take into account the number of injuries and agreed with a Kiwi poster when he brought it up re Crusaders loss to Cheetahs. However the times I have brought it up of course every howls down any Tah supporter daring to bring up injuries as a valid point. I then have pointed out whenever others bring up injuries that it seems to be reasonable and fair but not for the Tahs.
Jerry
Guest
"with 7 players of their XV out injured." I thought you never used that excuse, Peter?
PeterK
Roar Guru
of course Tahs have been dreadful, just losing to Sharks away with 3 vital penalties against them in the last 15 minutes by Kaplan, and with 7 players of their XV out injured. Kepu, Waugh, Palu, Barnes, Mitchell, Horne and Cross. Tahs have been very abysmal.
PeterK
Roar Guru
I think the SA teams have brought in wrestling experts to help them out in cleaning out rucks. A lot of the leveraged moves involve forcing a rotation by rotating the head / neck. Of course they are very very effective in cleaning out pesky opensiders like Pocock, look at how he was also attacked around the neck in a chocke hold not that long ago. The current laws do cover it in that it is dangerous play. However they should have a specific focus on it like they did on lifting a player above the horizontal in a tackle. It should be an automatic yellow card with an automatic review to see if further action is required.
PeterK
Roar Guru
the issue with the lineouts has not been with the jumpers by and large but with S Faingaas throwing. Against Crusaders time and again he threw it too high for any possible jumper to catch it.
PeterK
Roar Guru
RUSTY - Tahs are in the same situation. They are missing 7 out of their XV players. Kepu, Waugh, Palu, Barnes, Mitchell, Horne, Cross. Of course Tahs fans , unlike other teams fans, are not allowed to bring up injuries as any sort of reason for having less chance of winning.
Harry
Guest
These things go in cycles Suzy, I have always thought that traditional rugby power regions like Transvaal and SE Queensland wouldn't remain basket cases forever. Who do the Bulls play in their final 2 games? Derbes? I reckon they'll do the Tahs this weekend and that will leave them in a race with the Stormers for top spot in SA.