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It’s funny sometimes how things just become clear to you. Just when you think a competition is close and that up to eight teams are still in with a shot, suddenly the clouds clear and contenders disappear in your mind as if they were never there.
That happened to me over the weekend, and it was all on the back of just two games.
This won’t sound like that bold a prediction, and admittedly, there’s still an element of uncertainty about it, but here it is nevertheless: the Super Rugby title can only be won by one of the conference leaders.
Earth-shattering in its audaciousness, I know.
Now yes, the four or five teams still in the hunt for a wildcard finals spot still have a theoretical chance of taking the title, but in my humble opinion, they’re just not playing championship-winning rugby. The difference between the likes of the Bulls and Sharks and Waratahs and Highlanders and say, the Reds, is just too great now.
On Saturday night, I finally got to see the Stormers and their resplendent hooped jerseys first hand, and I walked away convinced of their credentials.
Never getting out of second gear, the Stormers played this game much like the Waratahs played the second half against the Lions the other week, with conservation in mind. The Stormers minimised their risks in attack, simplified their defence at the breakdown, and emptied their bench long before time.
The Brumbies may ambitiously put this game down as one that got away, but they’d be lonely, glass-overflowing optimists if they did. The Stormers were never in danger.
In attack, the Stormers played the percentages, kept it simple, and showed the type of patience that hasn’t been seen from the Canberra Stadium home dressing room this season at all.
Late in the first half, the Stormers piled on easily fifteen-plus phases on the Brumbies line just with one-out hit-ups, recycled pick-and-drives and constant questioning of the surprisingly good defence. They did the same thing just after half-time, and were rewarded with Francois Louw’s try.
It was their defence that really left the impression on me though. On the odd occasion where the Brumbies maintained possession, the Stormers simply controlled proceedings by minimising their numbers in the tackle, barely competed at the breakdown, and spread their numbers out so that they were essentially defending one on one.
The Brumbies best effort produced an enormous number of phases (some reports had it as high as 31), yet the Stormers were never troubled, and the play came to an end not with a try, but a Brumbies mistake. It was an enormous moment in the game, one built on belief and unwavering trust among the team to work together as a unit.
The Stormers are clearly the best side in South Africa, for mine, and are well equipped to turn around last year’s Final defeat.
The Reds, having now accounted for the Crusaders in a Sunday afternoon thriller, are practically assured of taking out the Australian cup. The Waratahs may still have a mathematical chance, but I think we all know it’s uphill for them now.
The Reds haven’t played finals football since 2001, but they’re going to end that drought in Quade Cooper-led style, and remain a better than even chance to finish the regular season in pole position. That’s something they haven’t done since 1999, when John Eales was literally still running around in short pants.
If there is one chink in the Reds armour, it remains their set piece play. Against the Crusaders the worst of it was all there on display; the scrum couldn’t always cope with the virtual All Black pack, and the lineout throwing at times was as consistent as a Mitchell Johnson over.
The Reds more than make up for these shortcomings in attack though, and having watched some pretty ordinary ball skills from Australian teams this year, it astounds me the way the Reds always seem to hold on to the pass that four out of five teams would invariably drop.
In front of an Australian record crowd on Sunday afternoon, they did what many a team have tried and failed: they out-McCawed Richie McCaw. Beau Robinson (until injured), Scott Higginbotham and Radike Samo were outstanding at the breakdown, and if the Reds do go all the way in 2011 the plaudits will deservedly go the way of their unheralded backrow.
Where my bold-ish prediction falls over, though, is the New Zealand conference. While the Blues keep hold of the top spot thanks to the bye and the Crusaders loss, I’m still not game to completely rule out the pride of Christchurch coming home with a wet sail.
The Blues have had a cracking season – second spot on the overall standings is just reward – but for no particular reason, they still don’t ‘feel’ like the real deal to me yet. That said, they’ll become a difficult proposition if they snare a semi at Eden Park, where a last gasp two point loss to the Stormers last round is the only blot on their copybook.
Of course, we all know the Crusaders’ record come finals time, and despite now dropping a full bonus point win below the Blues, a bye this coming round and a game against the Blues represent chances to peg points back.
The pursuit for the pointy end is well and truly on, and as is always the case in Super Rugby, gaining that home final is going to be crucial. The teams finishing in the wildcard spots will still be liking their chances, but for mine, winning away is going to be all that more difficult again.
It’s a race in three for the title, in my mind, I just don’t know which New Zealand team to put the line through just yet.