Although the season is not yet halfway through, these four sides have shown themselves to be superior to the rest of the competition.
Each have sufficient experience to suggest that come the end of the minor rounds, the top four will remain unchanged.
Geelong sits unbeaten at the top of the ladder after easily disposing of the disappointing Bulldogs on Saturday.
Losing Gary Ablett to the Gold Coast at the end of last season has just allowed the Cats to demonstrate that they are far from a one-man team.
Ablett’s departure has allowed Joel Selwood to continue his development into one of the best players in the competition, and although they have an older list, the Cats are not yet ready to descend from the top of the AFL tree.
Having won the premiership in 2007 and 2009, the Cats are proven big game players, and they will fancy themselves a good chance of making it three premierships from five years.
Reigning premier Collingwood remain favourites to go back-to-back, despite a narrow loss to Geelong earlier this year. The Magpies have the best coach in the competition in Mick Malthouse, and appear a cut above the vast majority of the sides they have faced.
The Magpies have class all over the field, and Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes in the Collingwood forward line are continuing to develop into the best big-man combination in the game.
The only stumbling block that the Magpies may encounter lies in the coaching box rather than the playing field.
With Malthouse set to hand over the reigns as head coach to Nathan Buckley for season 2012 and beyond, it remains to be seen whether this peculiar arrangement will unsettle the side in its quest to win back-to-back premierships.
Third-placed Hawthorn has possibly the most talented playing list in the competition, and both Geelong and Collingwood will be wary of meeting the star-studded Hawks side come September.
Lance Franklin has recaptured his best form this year and is the most devastating forward in the competition.
The Hawks midfield and forward lines are stockpiled with stars, but the defensive unit of Hawthorn could prove its weak link when the side meets fellow premiership aspirants at the pointy end of the season.
Rounding out the top four are the Blues, who are led by arguably the best player in the competition in Chris Judd. After making the finals in the past two seasons but not progressing past the first week, it seems the Blues will go much deeper into September action this year.
Of the sides outside the top four, none look able to seriously challenge for the premiership.
Sydney sits fifth, but the Swans don’t have the star quality to match it with the top four sides, and are unlikely to push their way into the top four.
After finishing last season with the wooden spoon, the resurgence of sixth-placed West Coast has been impressive, but to expect the Eagles to climb from cellar dweller to serious premiership contender in the space of twelve months is asking too much of John Worsfold’s young side.
Seventh-placed Essendon started the year with a bang, but have faltered recently, and the honeymoon period under favourite son James Hird appears to be over.
With the initial euphoria surrounding Hird’s appointment starting to wear off, the Bombers will have to find ways to maintain a consistent vein of good form, and Sunday’s game against the Dockers in Perth will shape whether the Bombers can stay in touch with the top four, or fall closer to those sides in a battle for eighth spot.
Twitter: @michaelfilosi
amazonfan
Roar Guru
"So what happens to Collingwood if they lose Thomas and Pendlebury?" I think Collingwood will be fine. They won't be quite as dominant, however they have incredible depth, so it shouldn't bother them too much. "Geelong if they lose chapman and steve johnson?" They should be fine as well. Their depth is perhaps second only to Collingwood, although losing Johnson and Chapman would certainly hurt them. "Hawthorn Buddy and Mitchel or Hodge?" Losing Buddy and Hodge, their two most important players, could really hurt them. They might possibly make the finals, however their premiership hopes would be shot. If they lost Mitchell instead of Hodge, they won't be quite as hurt, however they will still be out of the premiership race. "Carlton Murphy and Judd?" Gone. Murphy would be a huge loss, however losing Judd would be the killer. Not only has he won their B&F in each of the past three seasons, and has got to be the favourite to win again this year, but when Carlton needs inspiration, Judd provides it. He is as influential as any other player in the AFL (more so than most), and without him, Carlton wouldn't be where they are.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
What happens to teams in the top 4 if they lose their two best ranked players in the clubs best and fairest last year? The swans have been without Kieren Jack (best and fairest last year) and Shane Mumford (runner-up best and fairest last year) and still managed a comfortable 11-goal win over Brisbane at the Gabba. So what happens to Collingwood if they lose Thomas and Pendlebury? Geelong if they lose chapman and steve johnson? Hawthorn Buddy and Mitchel or Hodge? Carlton Murphy and Judd?
Sherrin-Burley-Faulkner
Guest
Collingwood V Carlton GF IMO.
Good call Michael. The other teams that looked as though they might be in it seem to have fallen by the wayside due to injuries/etc. Essendon, Swans, Fremantle, West Coast and Melbourne all seem to have hit a speed hump.
Redb
Roar Guru
Some not paying attention eh. I've never seen two Top 4 teams from a previous year plummett like St Kilda & the Bulldogs have this year.
woodsman
Guest
Hello? West Coast> Essendon's early run> Gold Coast> rapid fall of Footscray and St Kilda - how can you claim there has been little turnover in form? Don't forget that Collingwood was lambasted until about round 20 last year for being under-done and pretentious upstarts against the continued dominance of Geelong and St Kilda..
woodsman
Guest
hear-hear like last year, the current crop of footballers are very watchable whatever the colours (shades)
Swampy
Guest
Freo have a lot of major ins for the second half - they could definitely give the finals a shake if they got on a roll. I think top four is immaterial anyhow. There is a top one and the loss appears to be an aberration. I'm excited about what goes on below top spot. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
You can not tell me that the top 4 are set and nothing will change. There's 13 rounds to go, 13 games where key players can get injured, stars can return, coaches can be sacked and teams can find promising form and start a new game style. a win seperates each team in the top 4, except between 3rd. Hawthorn and 4th. Carlton, where half a win seperates them. Apart from that a win seperates the Swans, who are with out there top 2 finishing best and fairest finishers for the club last year and half a win seperates 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
Of all teams not to beat the Pies this year, Carlton matched it with them for all but 10 minutes and lost by 5 goals with its entire spine missing from the lineup (the same was missing from the bombers match) in a match where collingwood emotions were at a high after unveiling the flag with collingwood legends all over the place.. Carlton lost to Geelong by two points which is hardly something to frown at given the cats form of late. The return matches will tell us a lot more about the blues. In the mean time, despite slow starts, they are winning the games they should be winning while the team slowly comes together with players returning from injury, depth players asserting themselves, rookies having breakout years, and experienced players rediscovering themselves. Probably wont win the flag, but the blues are going a lot further than they did last year.
brendan
Guest
Get used to the Premiership race being decided by late May.The draft and fixture are so lopsided now going from the bottom to the top four will take years.Footy is losing some of its spontaneity .Nothing more exciting than last years losers looking like this years winners.There are not that many upset wins this year.
kick to kick
Guest
Probably a good analysis. Carlton are however the least assured of this group in that they have only beaten one side in the top eight so far this season and while they've beaten up on weaker teams still need to show they can win against the competition's elite teams.
Searly
Guest
Hey TW, pretty sure it's only 4 Collingwood players who are going to Arizona, not 12.
ac
Guest
No Troll Handles. I like AFL as a game better than anything else my biggest complaint is the Administration. But now back to the game - the top 4 looks pretty set. These teams are the most consistent and should be seen as such. Thats good. The final 8 is really just an excuse to get more games into the Final series. Very few teams below the 4 ever have a chance of doing anything in the final series. If we open open to talk about all the other teams other than the 4 then i guess thats not boring. But i wasnt referring to that - by boring i meant the top 4 is pretty much it and they are the ones who have a real crack at the Flag. As far as anything else well maybe there is room for comment. I do fell sorry for Port Adelaide RIP. All the $ has gone to shore up the new guys.
TW
Guest
What about the elephant in the room - The AFL clubs football department spending is having an effect whether anybody likes it or not. It threatens IMHO to negate the usual restraints. If it is not adjusted we are possibly heading for a EPL set up despite the Salary Cap and The draft How can Collingwood afford to send 12 players in the season proper to the USA when half the clubs can only dream of doing it. Any alarm bells ringing in Victoria at AFL House. To give this some perspective my club -Eagles - and the Dockers are financially secure so it is not sour grapes but have a look around outside Victoria. The AFL has guaranteed 18 clubs until 2016 but will there be the same clubs at the top in the intervening years.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
As others have pointed out, there's a distinction to be made between having four teams who have cleared out from the other sides, and having a boring competition. By this reasoning, every season of the English Premier League would be considered "boring" as only a few sides can win it, and I don't believe that this is true either. Plenty in this year's AFL season to keep everyone interested. * Will the handover of Collingwood coaching reigns at end of season unsettle the Magpies? * Can the exciting Suns claim another few scalps this season? * Will the Saints make a late season surge into finals action? * Will Essendon play finals in James Hird's first season as coach? * Is South Australian football at its lowest ebb? * How far can the West Coast Eagles improve on last season's wooden spoon?
Redb
Roar Guru
Beyond the top 4 there are sub plots galore. I dont think the Hawks are secure. Both West Coast & Sydney could take their position. Suns are one of the most watchable teams in the comp and they are 17th.
Handles O'Love
Guest
ac, surely that is just a low level troll. I know lots of people who love AFL, and lots who hate it, but nobody I have heard has said it is boring. Everything Amazon said, plus incredibly tight games, 3 draws so far, St Kilda struggling, and seemingly not concerned, a dramatically improving Suns, Karmichael Hunt, and more young kids than ever before...Faltering Lions, this is a season to remember.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Most boring comp in years? The addition of GC, the reemergence of WC, Judd and Carlton performing better than they have in years, Geelong and Collingwood in incredible form, Essendon performing great and with a club legend as coach, Melbourne showing moments of greatness and disproving the knockers, the Bulldogs collapsing, Hawthorn returning as a genuine premiership chance etc.... How is that boring? :D
Redb
Roar Guru
speak for yourself. There are many great games that dont involve the Top 4. Richmond v Essendon (6 v 9) drew 83,000 a couple of weeks ago. There are 13 teams that could make the 8, that is greater depth than previous seasons at the half way mark.