Is that a big, fat mistake? Did I type in All Blacks instead of Wallabies? Nope. Based on Saturday’s game, I believe the All Blacks can move a few more notches up the scale than we can.
Firstly, the All Blacks will have a very destructive front row with Mealamu, Hore, Owen and Ben Franks, Crockett and Afoa to choose from, and the Wallabies, while notching up a few points with Moore and Tatafu Polota-Nau, can’t match the AB prop strength.
The second row choice of Thorn, Sam Whitelock, Williams, Donnelly and Boric (when healthy) is a better scrummaging engine room than Horwill, Sharpe and Vickerman.
I score a dead heat with Popcock, Higgers, Robertson, Samo, Elsom and Palu against McCaw, Kaino, Read, Thompson, Messam.
So the Crusaders’ pack, which was so dominant on Saturday, improves more when it becomes an All Black pack than does the Reds’ pack when it becomes a Wallaby pack.
In the backs the All Blacks notch up with Cowan coming in, the midfield improves with a choice of Sonny Bill Williams, Nonu, Kahui and Smith, but we improve with James O’Connor and Adam Ashley-Cooper.
And, by the way, I believe that Anthony Fainga’a and Tapui proved that you don’t have to have big men to stop big men.
We notch up with Ioane, Davies and Mitchell (when recovered) over Gear, Guildford and Maitland. We go ahead again with Beale and Shepherd over Toeava and the aging Muliaina.
It looks fairly even by my count, so why am I putting the All Blacks ahead?
Because Graham Henry will have his forwards playing the same way the Crusaders played – fierce, non-stop counter-rucking, something they’ll be better at than we will.
They’ll beat us in the scrum, and depending if Vickers is Test-ready, match us in the lineouts (probably).
Plus they’ll be better at the pick-and-go (definitely) because they’ll secure the ball better, something we’re not so good at.
I believe Deans will take Cooper aside and gently tell him he’s got to cut out dinking little kicks that give up possession, get some distance on his up and unders, and try not to beat three guys coming at him when he’s isolated.
He’ll politely tell him to be less Quade and more Dan. Also, I think he’ll remind Genia that the box kick invites the opposition to ram the ball back down your throat, and instead of knocking-on, the All Blacks might just do that.
As for the coming Tests, I’m guessing that if Deans plays O’Connor at 12 against Samoa, he’ll have to play Genia, Cooper and Ashley-Cooper as well to see how the combo goes.
So not much rest for the stars. He might mix and match against the Springboks B team on the 23rd, a game the Wallabies will win (no thanks for wimping out, Peter de Villiers).
The big test, in more ways than one, is the following game against the All Blacks in Wellington. Then we’ll see if I’m right or wrong. If I’m right, I’ll say nothing. If I’m wrong, I’ll apologise.
Luke Easton
Guest
Guys Richie aint just another player to chuck out, he is arguably the greatest player ever. He is not getting on he had what 3 games all year, and well peak and imo well be in the form of his career at the world cup. People forget the reds only wan by 5 points againgst a hit the wall in the last 20 crusaders team, crusaders actually had more oppurtunites then the reds but lacked the usual executuion, but thats okay give credit where credits due the reds were the better team on the day, doesent mean they are better then then crusaders just they some advantages. Abs tight five best in the world, and with enough x factor ala sbw, toeava etc Think abs can win the 3 nations and wc.
cinematic
Guest
Why underplay your hand in a final? Doesn't make any sense, especially against a side up against it fatigue wise. Henry and Co are already working on plan F. No coaching team in history has overhauled a teams playing style so successfully and so many times as those guys have. I can't wait for the Bledisloe and WC (don't give a toss about the TN's as Boks will be at 1/4 strength).
abnutta
Roar Guru
Referring to the addition of Waratahs to boost the Wallaby pack.. would these be the same Waratah forwards that scrummaged against the Crusaders in Nelson earlier this season? Because I remember what happened in those scrummaging "contests."
soapit
Guest
and it wasnt just the scrum that let us down it was the great counter rucking by the england pack who put in a monster performance and imo their best of the tournament
Damo
Guest
Interesting article Frikkie but the NZ won't improve more the Wallabies for the simple reason - they don't need to. They were better than the Wallabies before last weekend (HK aside) and still are. Nothing has changed in status - till the Wallabies start beating NZ more than losing. It's fun to analyse at this level but last weekend's game with all it's extremely close outcome and massive inbuilt variables- Jet lag Reffing of rucks 52,000 assistant refs Non neutral ref leading to confusing calls both ways Assistant ref 'missing' ie ignoring a pass from a Sader lying in the ruck to his halfback Amazing spectacle that Saders probably would have won with less fatigue. Rested and coached national teams with world class players in every position is a whole new ball game. That NZ have deserved top ranking for.
happychap
Roar Rookie
I thought it was more interesting how Cooper underplayed his hand, played a mature distributing role that the Crusaders couldn't counter. Maybe need to start working on Plan B, New Zealand.
happychap
Roar Rookie
Losing the big matches that matter - the Kiwi's seem to have that strategy absolutely mastered.
winston
Guest
The Ausies were definitely favourites for that game. They chocked.
Colin N
Guest
"I reckon those who intimately understand rugby WOULDN”T have had the Wallabies favourite (back in 2007). If your footings/foundations are unsound (ie – scrum), then your house is guaranteed to collapse, sooner or later." Well, every Australian going into that match seemed very confident, be it the press or public in general. The southern hemisphere were backing Australia and the British press said England had no chance. "The Wallabies won’t want to be going into the next world cup with another dodgy scrum….." Which is what everyone said in 07 before they were duly smashed in that area by England. The Reds have an average scrum but their forwards are well coached, often getting them over the gainline which provides a platform for the backs, whether the scrum is going backwards or not. In 07, as has been pointed out, the whole Australian forward pack was dominated, it wasn't just at the scrum.
Justin
Guest
I disagree that SBW is amoungst our best. Maa Nonu is a far more experienced player at international level than SBW. Maa Nonu will be starting ahead of SBW. You only need to look at Stephen Donald. A fantastic Super rugby player but just didnt quite make the step to international level. It will be interesting with the Wallabies having so many debutants how they foot it at international level. Our starting 15 will only have 5 Cantabs. Starting 15 as follows: 1) Woodcock(Blues), 2) Mealamu(Blues), 3) Franks(Crus), 4)Thorn(Crus), 5)Ali Williams(Blues), 6)Kaino(Blues), 7)McCaw(Crus), 8)Read(Crus), 9)Cowan(High), 10)Carter(Crus), 11)Gear(Hurr), 12)Nonu(Hurr), 13)Smith(Hurr), 14)Sivivatu(Chiefs), 15)Muliaina(Chiefs). This is pretty much the same team as last year except for Ali Williams coming back.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Logically since Crusaders have more AB's than Reds Wallabies then there should be more improvement in th Reds. The Reds weakness is in the tight 5 which is where the most changes will happen and get improvement. IMO the 3 best players for the Wallabies are Cooper,Pocock and Beale only 1 of which is in the reds, whilst the top 3 AB's are Carter, McCaw and SBW all Crusaders. Also AB's wont get a home ref but they will get home ground so they evens out.
sheek
Guest
Well, I reckon those who intimately understand rugby WOULDN"T have had the Wallabies favourite (back in 2007). If your footings/foundations are unsound (ie - scrum), then your house is guaranteed to collapse, sooner or later. Which is pretty well what happened. Interesting that McKenzie regarded Greg Holmes' role (tight-head prop) as significant in the Reds win over the Crusaders. But the Reds scrum barely held the Crusaders, I hear you say. Yes, but that was the point - just "barely holding" the Crusaders scrum might be enough, & on this occasion, it was. The Wallabies won't want to be going into the next world cup with another dodgy scrum.....
bokgat1
Guest
Good luck - never quite sure with you lot. Arrogance, ignorance or wishful thinking
Taetjo
Guest
It's simple, Richie is ageing. Something that might hurt the All blacks in the World Cup and is currently hurting the Springboks. They hold onto old players for too long!
Taetjo
Guest
Ben Tapuai, despite playing less than 6 games for the Reds this season, showed how much class he's got. That man can play rugby. I notice that all of a sudden the South Africasn have been written off! Oh well... All I can asay is that REMEMBER 2009...
Justin
Guest
Well done to the Reds. I'm a Kiwi but that was fantastic to see the Reds win and they deserved it as they finished top so well done!! As for Super form passing to international level. I think the Boks answered that last year. 1999 Crusaders won and the Wallabies won the world cup. 2003 the Blues won and Oz came runner up in the world cup. 2007 Boks won the super and world cup and who knows what will happen this year?!?!? So hopefully not wnning will do us a favour and wake up a few arrogant heads
Kane
Guest
Plenty of luck needed
dwc
Guest
Great loss for the Crusaders ...now we know the Reds/Wallabies game plan. Henry and co will dismantle it and spit it out. Now we know how Cooper performs under pressure ....he disappears... Freun showed a lack of confidence in running direct to the line. Still a way to go.....Zac had a shocker and will not make the final cut RWC time....Richie will know what he needs to do from here until RWC time, re his fitness...
soapit
Guest
plus they'd gotten beaten easily by the boks in the pool while australia had progressed with no real worries. it definitely was an upset victory.
soapit
Guest
can't see ritchie having a game as bad as that for a while though. i think you can write that one off. he had to have a bad game eventually but its so rare over his career i wouldnt hang around waiting for the next one, plus he's only just back from injury.