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Is that a big, fat mistake? Did I type in All Blacks instead of Wallabies? Nope. Based on Saturday’s game, I believe the All Blacks can move a few more notches up the scale than we can.
Firstly, the All Blacks will have a very destructive front row with Mealamu, Hore, Owen and Ben Franks, Crockett and Afoa to choose from, and the Wallabies, while notching up a few points with Moore and Tatafu Polota-Nau, can’t match the AB prop strength.
The second row choice of Thorn, Sam Whitelock, Williams, Donnelly and Boric (when healthy) is a better scrummaging engine room than Horwill, Sharpe and Vickerman.
I score a dead heat with Popcock, Higgers, Robertson, Samo, Elsom and Palu against McCaw, Kaino, Read, Thompson, Messam.
So the Crusaders’ pack, which was so dominant on Saturday, improves more when it becomes an All Black pack than does the Reds’ pack when it becomes a Wallaby pack.
In the backs the All Blacks notch up with Cowan coming in, the midfield improves with a choice of Sonny Bill Williams, Nonu, Kahui and Smith, but we improve with James O’Connor and Adam Ashley-Cooper.
And, by the way, I believe that Anthony Fainga’a and Tapui proved that you don’t have to have big men to stop big men.
We notch up with Ioane, Davies and Mitchell (when recovered) over Gear, Guildford and Maitland. We go ahead again with Beale and Shepherd over Toeava and the aging Muliaina.
It looks fairly even by my count, so why am I putting the All Blacks ahead?
Because Graham Henry will have his forwards playing the same way the Crusaders played – fierce, non-stop counter-rucking, something they’ll be better at than we will.
They’ll beat us in the scrum, and depending if Vickers is Test-ready, match us in the lineouts (probably).
Plus they’ll be better at the pick-and-go (definitely) because they’ll secure the ball better, something we’re not so good at.
I believe Deans will take Cooper aside and gently tell him he’s got to cut out dinking little kicks that give up possession, get some distance on his up and unders, and try not to beat three guys coming at him when he’s isolated.
He’ll politely tell him to be less Quade and more Dan. Also, I think he’ll remind Genia that the box kick invites the opposition to ram the ball back down your throat, and instead of knocking-on, the All Blacks might just do that.
As for the coming Tests, I’m guessing that if Deans plays O’Connor at 12 against Samoa, he’ll have to play Genia, Cooper and Ashley-Cooper as well to see how the combo goes.
So not much rest for the stars. He might mix and match against the Springboks B team on the 23rd, a game the Wallabies will win (no thanks for wimping out, Peter de Villiers).
The big test, in more ways than one, is the following game against the All Blacks in Wellington. Then we’ll see if I’m right or wrong. If I’m right, I’ll say nothing. If I’m wrong, I’ll apologise.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.