England’s fly-half Jonny Wilkinson kicks the Gilbert Virtuo during their Rugby World Cup Pool B match against Argentina. (AAP Image,Martin Bureau
Jonny Wilkinson missing four successive kicks at goal, as he did for England against Argentina, is about as rare as four or more successive sunny, warm days in New Zealand in spring. Wilkinson just didn’t miss these shots. Several of his kicks ended up closer to the corner posts than the goal posts.
He explained his misses this way: ‘The ball wasn’t going where it was supposed to go.’
It wasn’t just Wilkinson who had the kicking blues. Dan Carter missed several relatively easy, for him at least, kicks at goal. The usual sharpshooters for Scotland and Ireland were also strangely off target.
James Hook, who kicked a goal that wasn’t given by Wayne Barnes and his assistant referees, had the gripping match between his Welsh side and the Springboks on his boot when, minutes from full-time and with Wales one point down, he kicked for goal from the sideline about 35m out.
This is the sort of kick most accomplished kicker like Hook would boot over in a clutch situation like this.
The kick was never going to go over. It started metres outside the near post and never looked like curving in across the bar.
It was not just a perception that the goal-kicking was generally poor in most matches in the opening matches. The statistics on the kicking are that of the 104 kicks at goal only 64 were successful. The success rate was 61.5 per cent. The usual success rate is about 75 per cent.
In my opinion, something is wrong. Either the kickers are in bad form or, and this is my belief, there is something about the Gilbert Virtuo ball that is disconcerting the goal-kickers.
The interesting aspect of all of this is that the same thing happened in Rugby World Cup 2007.
Kickers like Carter and Wilkinson missed relatively easy kicks at goal, just like they have this tournament. I wrote an article at the time documenting all the misses and suggesting that the balls were at fault. The article was run in the influential French newspaper L’Equipe.
The makers of the Gilbert ball were infuriated by the article.
They published all sort of statistics to suggest that I was wrong. Players like Carter were sort of in agreement. But it was clear they weren’t happy with the ball.
Now we move forward to this week. The statistics suggest that there is something wrong with the ball.
Gilbert, as they did in RWC 2007, have put out a statement saying that the reaction to the tournament ball has been ‘overwhelming positive.’
As an aside, I would note that Wilkinson’s comment about the contrariness of the ball does not seem to me to be overwhelmingly positive.
The Gilbert statement went on to point out that the Gilbert Virtuo ball, which weighs 460g, was used in the 2011 Six Nations tournament. But it seems a new type of bladder with a new valve ‘to improve the stability’ of the ball has been added. Apparently this new bladder retains the air in the ball more effectively than other bladders.
This may be the problem. I noticed at the New Zealand-Tonga match that there was wooden sound when the ball was kicked. It sounded more like a lump of wood being kicked that a rugby ball. The ball also often just died when it was kicked.
Sometimes, though, when it was kicked in the sweet spot, generally in a low rather than a high trajectory, it went great distances. And then there were all the misses with the kicks at goal…
As the tournament progresses it will be interesting to see how the kickers cope with a ball that seems to be harder than the usual ball.
In 2007, Percy Montgomery, the Springboks’ ace kicker, had no trouble knocking over his kicks at goal when the sharp-shooters in the other teams could hardly convert their kicks at goal.
It was Montgomery’s dead-eye goal kicking that was instrumental in South Africa winning the 2007 RWC tournament.
Here is the punchline. In the opening round of the 2011 RWC tournament there was one kicker who knocked over all his shots at goal.
Morne Steyn, the Springboks ace kicker, converted three out of three of his shots at goal. This dead-eye accuracy got the Springboks up in their 17-16 win over Wales.
Will Morne Steyn be the 2011 equivalent of Percy Montgomery for the Springboks?
tom foster
Guest
Great to see some accurate stats!! They don't read too bad at all, especially given increased pressure of RWC and no doubt players attempting harder kicks?
tom foster
Guest
Sad to see my earlier post deleted - totally inoffensive and unopinionated - just picking up on you inaccurate article! However, glad to see you have corrected the mistakes and the stats in the article are now correct. Well done.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
We've updated Spiro's article now with the correct statistics. Happy to admit we had a mixup with stats. Actual statistics (before today's three games) are as follows: 64 successful kicks at from 104 :: 61.5%. Tristan The Roar
Sammy22
Guest
Thanks Cattery, and it would be more of an issue there at least we can just pick it up and run !!!
grandpabhaile
Guest
Where did Spiro get his 40% figure from then, if the actual number is 61%?
Derm
Roar Guru
Hmmm – part of the problem here may be faulty statistics that we’re relying on. I used ESPN’s statsguru thingy to check the number of place and drop kicks in each match and the recorded success rate. It doesn’t take into account degree of difficulty, and I’ve amalgamated both conversions and penalties together. I’ve also included separately the drop goals, if only to acknowledge the superb trio of drop goals by Namibia’s Kotze in the space of 6 minutes. The total success rate came to 61.5% – 64 from 104 and 3 DGs and 5 miss DGs. I don’t know where Spiro got his “usual success rate of 75%” but the gap is not that big even if this holds true. The two big anomalies in this list are the Ireland/US game and the Argentaina/England game. So rather than assume that there was something wrong with the ball in every match, perhaps particular circumstances affected these two matches. In the Ireland match, it was raining hard and windy. Ireland also used two kickers – Sexton and O’Gara. Sexton was not on form, and O’Gara made a big difference. This has happened before. The Eng/Arg match was indoors in the new Taranaki stadium. Perhaps this did affect how the ball travelled/behaved. As far as I’m aware, every other game was outdoors. I’ve no idea if temperatures had a part to play. Contemponi was injured early on. If you remove these two matches from the equation, the numbers move to a 69% success rate.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Yes. The last few world cups they have released a new ball just prior to the WC, and pretty much all players have complained long and hard about it, especially dead ball specialists. In the case of soccer, they probably have a point, as you muck around with different stitiching patterns to get the essential round shape (noting that a perfect sphere is almost impossible when various shapes need to be stitched together), it's likely that you are going to get different aerodynamics than what players will be accustomed to. In the case of a Gilbert, and I admit it's a while since I've held and kicked one, there is no stitching to speak of and the synthetic material it is made of is unlikely to change to any great degree. Having said that, it wouldn't take much (in terms of the manner in which the ball is manufactured) to affect the flight of an oval ball (greater or smaller bulge in the middle, pointier ends, internal materials, distribution of materials, elasticity of materials in terms of indentation upon impact of being kicked and the slowness or quickness by which it returns to its original state while in flight, etc, etc)
S T Rine
Guest
Great! Could it be that his ball may give us a RWC with less points from kicking & more from tries? S T Rine
Sammy22
Guest
Seems to me I've heard all this before ..... in the Soccer World cup Dont they change their balls each World Cup and there is always hullabaloo then I think a bit like DonB it tends to level the field a bit and dare I say encourage running rugby at a time teams play safe because it is the world cup
cjones
Guest
could have been the conditions under the roof as the argetinians missed a load as well. but don't let that get in the way of bagging the bloke who knocked australia out of the last two world cups.
Derm
Roar Guru
Hmmm - part of the problem here may be faulty statistics that we're relying on. I used ESPN's statsguru thingy to check the number of place and drop kicks in each match and the recorded success rate. It doesn't take into account degree of difficulty, and I've amalgamated both conversions and penalties together. I've also included separately the drop goals, if only to acknowledge the superb trio of drop goals by Namibia's Kotze in the space of 6 minutes. Here's what they looked like in success terms - best to worst: SA 100% (3 from 3) 1 miss DG FIJ 89% (8 from 9) FRA 78% (7 from 9) NZ 71.4% (5 from 7) AUS 71.4% (5 from 7) USA 66.7% (2 from 3) ITA 66.7% (2 from 3) JAP 66.7% (4 from 6) WAL 66.7% (4 from 6) 2 miss DGs TON 66.7% (2 from 3) ROM 62.5% (5 from 8 - 1 DG miss SCO 55.6% (5 from 9) IRL 44.4% (4 from 9) NAM 40% (2 from 5) 3 DGs ENG 37.5% (3 from 8 ARG 33% (3 from 9) 1 miss DG ALL 61.5% - 64 from 104 and 3 DGs and 5 miss DGs. So by my reckoning using these stats, the success rate is at 61.5%. I don't know where Spiro got his "usual success rate of 75%" but the gap is not that big even if this holds true. The two big anomalies in this list are the Ireland/US game and the Argentaina/England game. So rather than assume that there was something wrong with the ball in every match, perhaps particular circumstances affected these two matches. In the Ireland match, it was raining hard and windy. Ireland also used two kickers - Sexton and O'Gara. Sexton was not on form, and O'Gara made a big difference. This has happened before. The Eng/Arg match was indoors in the new Taranaki stadium. Perhaps this did affect how the ball travelled/behaved. As far as I'm aware, every other game was outdoors. I've no idea if temperatures had a part to play. Contemponi was injured early on. If you remove these two matches from the equation, the numbers move to a 69% success rate. If you segment the list further, and just rank those teams who had 6 or more place kicks to take (as the likelihood of missing increases), it looks like this: FIJ 89% (8 from 9) FRA 78% (7 from 9) NZ 71.4% (5 from 7) AUS 71.4% (5 from 7) ROM 62.5% (5 from 8 - 1 DG miss SCO 55.6% (5 from 9) IRL 44.4% (4 from 9) ENG 37.5% (3 from 8 ARG 33% (3 from 9) 1 miss DG
ChrisT
Roar Pro
Maybe that's the answer. The Wellington wind took properly aimed kicks that were doomed to miss due to a ball defect and put them through the posts. However i hope Jonny doesn't kick much better in the next match but that Flood does. Jonny is the man to come on when the lead is held and game management is needed but he's not the man to threaten the defensive line. Playing him in conjunction with the third choice scrummie Wigglesworth is not something i want to see again. Young's fitness is key to England success as is a sucessful partnership with Flood.
DonB
Guest
I love this new ball thing partly because it levels the playing field with regard to kickers and drop goal merchants like Wilko -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Sylvester
Guest
"Dan Carter missed several relatively easy, for him at least, kicks at goal." He missed two of six, the last of which he approached very casually. He also kicked one from the sideline. I think the Steyn example sums it up - good kicking v bad kicking - or in Wilko's case, woeful kicking.
Ben S
Roar Guru
'Maybe the Poms should concentrate a little more on that aspect of the game?' Yet another ridiculous comment. England were leading try scorers in the 6N, and the point of the article is that multiple kickers have struggled, and not just England.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Totally agree.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
The colander you use to make your tin-foil hats with… are they of the stainless steel variety of plastic?
sheek
Guest
Spiro, Isn't it possible to strangle all marketing imbeciles at graduation. Or at least the annoying ones, those who think they know when they don't, which is most of them! I don't know if the new ball is the trouble, but why disrupt such a significant tournament, by introducing something new at such a critical time? Surely they've done exhaustive tests on the ball, haven't they? If it's not the ball, it's the refs going back to the past, or is that the future? Where's the consistency for the players & managers? Or fiddling with the playing kit? The world cup doesn't need these side-show issues distrupting the main event, which is about the teams & the games.....
zhenry
Guest
You are exaggerating and misquoting me. The media corporations are the movers here their interests are AU interests not NZ interests (you have said so yourself): the ARU is the beneficiary of that. Core ARU supporters reside on the Fairfax Board it is well known that the ARU has big business connections, and make no mistake they use them: In case you are not aware that is what present business is all about; networking and mutual money interests. The ARU don’t care enough about the RWC schedule on free to air, they are more interested in the big bucks they get from Channel 9’s exclusive rugby rights. That is set by the nature of the deal and nothing to do with mutual ARU business connections with Fairfax and Murdoch (and their NZ ownership interests).The Channel 9 deal is quite separate from my issue. As an aside the ARU must judge the satisfaction of its followers against a single payout. It could back fire and push rugby followers to another code: Although that is unlikely it could prevent League and other code followers from being impressed by Union. Long term, might be better for ARU to take reduction in a single payout, for another channel that will offer a more convenient WC schedule.
Medi
Guest
WIlko was not used to looking at black stockings when kicking! That's for cheating with the jerseys