Rugby World Cup semi-finals
A show of hands, please. Hands up anyone who picked a Wales-France semi-final? Exactly. No-one. I suppose there’s not quite as much surprise around the All Blacks vs Wallabies second semi final though.
It was expected and hoped in even quantities that Australia and New Zealand would meet again, as they did in Sydney in 2003.
Where the surprise comes into it, however, is how Australia managed to get there at all.
But first, Wales will go into Saturday’s first Semi-Final with equal amounts of confidence and momentum.
The way they so clinically disposed of Ireland makes you wonder why in the pool stage they didn’t beat South Africa, and why they nearly didn’t beat Samoa.
Now they’re one win away from an inaugural World Cup final.
France’s midfield defence did a good job of shutting down Jonny Wilkinson and Manu Tuilagi, but as Gordon D’Arcy will testify, stopping Jamie Roberts is a whole other story.
In some ways, it’s a good thing England didn’t win through to the semi, because I would have genuine fears for Toby Flood’s safety.
Roberts was the focal point of Wales’ attack, particularly in the first half, and he gave a perfect example of why the running “big man” is so in vogue at inside centre these days.
Of course he was fed beautifully all night by impressive flyhalf Reece Preistland, who himself has done a top job of running in what once was the domain of Stephen Jones.
Actually, Preistland made good use of his running backs all night, and the way he switched from blind to open side in the lead-up to Jonathan Davies’ try – the match winner, as it turned out – was hard not to appreciate.
Shane Williams was at his sniping best, too, and scrumhalf Mike Phillips is right up there with the best No. 9s getting around. If nothing else he must be the biggest, surely, if I’m reading his 101 kg and 191cm dimensions right.
For Wales, it was all about their defence, and the obvious stat that sticks out is their 141 tackles made and only eleven missed. Of those 141 tackles made, flankers Danny Lydiate and Sam Warburton account for 45 of them.
Though the possession and territory numbers evened out in the end, for the most part of the game they were both in Ireland’s favour, yet they only had Keith Earls’ try to show for it.
Skipper Brian O’Driscoll summed it up perfectly, then, saying post-match, “We were just outplayed on the day.”
And France will be doing well on Saturday to stop Wales too.
Les Blues advance to an unlikely semi-final berth, it has to be said, on the back of a fairly ordinary pool stage which included two losses.
I can’t recall it happening previously, that a team would reach the semis (or even the Final) having lost two pool games.
However, this was a triumph for good old French flair, and for younger readers, the value of getting the ‘one-percenters’ right. They won the game in the first half, just by doing the little things right.
They kicked well and smartly, they forced breakdown and scrum penalties and took the points when offered (England knocked several penalty goal opportunities back), and scored their tries by stretching England’s defence wide.
Somewhat surprisingly, England also tried to play a wider game, but it just never happened for them. Toby Flood looked significantly better in attack than did Jonny Wilkinson, yet Manu Tuilagi made them both look a lot better than they were.
French No. 8 Imanol Harinordoquy was a thoroughly deserving Man of the Match, but wily scrum half Dimitri Yachvili can’t have been far behind him, with a dominant 50-odd minutes before being surprisingly replaced.
France showed that you just never know what they’re going to do, and reports of squad mutiny will surely now disappear as quickly as coach Marc Lievremont’s beaming smile has reappeared. Fair to say he’s enjoying New Zealand again.
What’s remarkable about the South Africa-Australia match is not that South Africa didn’t win, but that they didn’t win by 20. Sure, a couple of forward passes put paid to what would have been an understandable margin, but the Springboks had a mountain of stats in their favour.
They had more than three-quarters of the territory, more than half the possession, five lineout steals, I-don’t-know-how-many 5+ phases, and tellingly, made only around a third as many tackles as the Wallabies. You shouldn’t lose matches with numbers like that.
Yet somehow – and I’m still scratching my head how – Australia were able to maintain scoreboard pressure. James Horwill’s determined try came on the Wallabies first entrance into the ‘Boks 22.
After Morne Steyn had kicked South Africa into the lead in the 60th minute, James O’Connor struck back with a clutch penalty in the 72nd.
Everything else in between was based on an amazing Wallaby defensive effort, and the guile, cunning, and sheer brilliance of David Pocock at the breakdown. It scares me to guess the scoreline had Pocock not played.
Somehow, they’ve extended their stay across the ditch by a fortnight, and on a positive for Australia, they can only play better. That they could tough out and win that match playing as poorly as they did is a credit to them.
In the grand scheme of things, this win was enormous, courageous, and very, very lucky. But it’ll do.
Australia’s opponents on Sunday will be New Zealand, who, it must be said, will surely be wondering if their no.10 jersey had a hex applied while at the dry-cleaners at some stage. Only minutes into his first big match replacing “that groin”, Colin Slade’s own groin gave way.
Aaron Cruden did well when he came on, and looked dangerous in attack, but must now be prepared to be cotton-woolled, bubble-wrapped, and kid-gloved all this week.
The Wallabies would surely have noticed how Argentina’s scrambling defence forced a remarkable number of unforced errors from the All Blacks in the first half. New Zealand always looked likely, yet also took poor options at times as the Pumas quickly closed.
Of course, it’s history now that the All Blacks would run away with the game, bringing to an end a streak where Pool runners-up claimed the first three quarter-finals. Argentina were outplayed, but the 33-10 score line rather flattered the hosts.
The big question going forward will be whether Cruden is equipped well enough to win a RWC semi-final, or whether scrumhalf Piri Weepu is in fact the best option at flyhalf.
New Zealand remain on track for a second Rugby World Cup, and will quite likely be wound in even further by the bookies. But still, that’s not going to allay the fears of a nation going into the penultimate weekend of the tournament with more uncertainty about their main playmaker.
Jason Cave
Guest
I wonder how many players from the Welsh team would make it into the next British & Irish Lions side, along with those from Ireland, England and Scotland based on their performances in the current Rugby World Cup.
Brett McKay
Expert
You blokes have far too much time on your hands...
Jerry
Guest
Sweep the groin!
Mungehead
Guest
Who would you have called up instead of Donald expert?
Rucknroll
Guest
A world cup win, is a world cup win, is a world cup win.....nice spinning there MikeN, trying to cover your options so you have something to clling to after Sunday? Starting to sweat a little. You know like everyone else, that if the ABs triumph in this WC, they'll most likely win the next 4 or 5 after that. Scary huh?? Keep manipulating your little stats around, probably all you're going to have left after Sunday.....
Frank O'Keeffe
Guest
I mean it when I say this. I care more about the upcoming Test between Australia and New Zealand than any rugby match I can remember. It means so much for me that Australia wins this. I don't think Australia will win. As I noted elsewhere, regardless of his form, an Australia backline missing Beale falls out of place. There's too many players playing out of position. This Test also means a tremendous amount for New Zealand, and with a 50,000 crowd urging them on at the fortress of all rugby fortresses... I can't see it. But if Australia win I'd say it's their biggest win in a long time. People can disagree with this, but I think Australia's win over New Zealand at Eden Park in 1986 was the biggest win in Australian rugby history. The 1991 World Cup would be second. And of course the 1999 World Cup and 2001 Lions tour are big wins. A win over New Zealand... where they haven't won in 25 years... in a semi final of a world cup... when there's so much on the line for New Zealand... with so many injuries... is bigger than quo vadis. Frank is tremendously nervous and very emotionally invested in this game. Please win Wallabies. One more performance David Pocock... one more!
The expert
Guest
Sorry C##k
The expert
Guest
Donald duck been anywhere near all black team is showing how nutty henry is ,sbw on the wing was bad enough way too slow to be there ,Im sure henry is making it up as he goes hes like a terrible bartender mixing your cocktail no plan just hoping hes got right mix ,How nz trusted this guy to win a world cup is beyond me ,hes allready failed with a better team than this ,im still backing them to win though it wont be much to do with him ,the guys a C###K
Cyborg
Guest
South Africa didn't win because they cant score tries like they haven't for many years now.
Colin N
Guest
There are rumours, too, that England might want Jake White alongside Eddie Jones, with Mike Catt or Paul Turner as attack coach, should Johnson go.
Colin N
Guest
"NZ and South African players in that season then back up for another 10-12 games of NPC or curry cup on top of that." I'm sorry but which New Zealand internationals who are in the World Cup squad played in the ITM Cup this season? I only seem to remember Aaron Cruden and that was because he wasn't in the Tri-Nations or the initial WC squad. And the Tri-Nations played through the provincial season anyway. The same went for the South African players and I doubt PDV would have let them play anyway considering they were all 'injured.' It's slightly hypocritical for the SH to spout out the 'long season' factor as whenever the NH toured with weakened squads down south - thus getting hammered - and came up with the same 'reason,' it was an labelled an 'excuse.'
Coxinator
Guest
You mean that slaughter that was won by a point with a penalty in the last minute? It obviously rocked the Reds' confidence....
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Which clearly makes Quade Cooper Johnny.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Aaron Cruden IS Daniel LaRusso.
all7days
Roar Guru
It worked for the Karate Kid.
Timnaik
Guest
Jumpers, you fool!
Jerry
Guest
Try to be best ‘Cause you're only a man And a man's gotta learn to take it Try to believe Though the going gets rough That you gotta hang tough to make it History repeats itself Try and you'll succeed Never doubt that you're the one And you can have your dreams! You're the best! Around! Nothing's gonna ever keep you down You're the Best! Around! Nothing's gonna ever keep you down You're the Best! Around! Nothing's gonna ever keep you dow-ow-ow-ow-own Fight ‘til the end Cause your life will depend On the strength that you have inside you Ah you gotta be proud starin' out in the cloud When the odds in the game defy you Try your best to win them all and one day time will tell when you're the one that's standing there you'll reach the final bell! You're the best! Around! Nothing's gonna ever keep you down You're the Best! Around! Nothing's gonna ever keep you down You're the Best! Around! Nothing's gonna ever keep you dow-ow-ow-ho-how-ho-own INSPIRING GUITAR SOLO You're the best! Around! Nothing's gonna ever keep you down You're the Best! Around! Nothing's gonna ever keep you down You're the Best! Around! Nothing's gonna ever keep you dow-ow-ow-ow-own Fight ‘til you drop never stop can't give up Til you reach the top (FIGHT!) you're the best in town (FIGHT!) Listen to that sound A little bit of all you got Can never bring you down You're the best! Around! Nothing's gonna ever keep you down You're the Best! Around! repeat to fade, occasional background shouts of “Oh Ye-eah
Mike
Guest
Lorry, 1. The Wallabies didn't JUST get ball from Pocock's turnovers. But in any case, that is what happens when you have very little policing of the breakdown by the referee. You may remember that a similar thing happened in Durban when Lawrence refereed. 2. Exactly, none of the Australian backs got much ball, because the forwards couldn't win it for them. And the forwards couldn't win it for them because this referee's style suits the Springbok game, and because the Springboks played it very very well. 3. The Wallabies didn't "put themselves in a position of having to make 150+ tackles". They were put in that position by a combination of Springbok tactics, and a referee whose interpretation perfectly suited those tactics (as is well known). 4. Probably because of Bok skill in that area, although Matfield was caught out a few times with some dodgy play (nothing really to complain about though) and Roussow was caught out in some clearly dodgy play, which in fact cost the Boks the match. 5. Same reason as above: Referee's looseness allowed the Boks to completely stifle our play. A few months ago in Durban the same ref let a similar thing happen (not quite as bad) and we only just got out of that one also (14-9). None of this is new. 6. Same as happened with all the other backs - they can't do much if the forwards don't get them ball and space to play it. 7. That we lost the game against a very good team, what else? We could have lost it in Durban too, but just scraped through. And finally, nobody is suggesting that Rugby is "made solely on good defence", but it is partly built on it and that was very refreshing to see.
Mike
Guest
Awesome and detailed analysis, Snobby, thanks mate. You should get a job as an actuary!
Snobby Deans
Guest
That's right MikeN, because the All Blacks have, to date, not won a World Cup away from home, the wins at home are somewhat tarnished. What a load of bollocks! Winning a World Cup - hopefully two - at home has no bearing on whether they can/will win one away from home. Most would say they were desperately unlucky to lose to Boks in '95.