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Surprises en route to Rugby World Cup semis

Expert
10th October, 2011
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Rugby World Cup semi-finals

Rugby World Cup semi-finals

A show of hands, please. Hands up anyone who picked a Wales-France semi-final? Exactly. No-one. I suppose there’s not quite as much surprise around the All Blacks vs Wallabies second semi final though.

It was expected and hoped in even quantities that Australia and New Zealand would meet again, as they did in Sydney in 2003.

Where the surprise comes into it, however, is how Australia managed to get there at all.

But first, Wales will go into Saturday’s first Semi-Final with equal amounts of confidence and momentum.

The way they so clinically disposed of Ireland makes you wonder why in the pool stage they didn’t beat South Africa, and why they nearly didn’t beat Samoa.

Now they’re one win away from an inaugural World Cup final.

France’s midfield defence did a good job of shutting down Jonny Wilkinson and Manu Tuilagi, but as Gordon D’Arcy will testify, stopping Jamie Roberts is a whole other story.

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In some ways, it’s a good thing England didn’t win through to the semi, because I would have genuine fears for Toby Flood’s safety.

Roberts was the focal point of Wales’ attack, particularly in the first half, and he gave a perfect example of why the running “big man” is so in vogue at inside centre these days.

Of course he was fed beautifully all night by impressive flyhalf Reece Preistland, who himself has done a top job of running in what once was the domain of Stephen Jones.

Actually, Preistland made good use of his running backs all night, and the way he switched from blind to open side in the lead-up to Jonathan Davies’ try – the match winner, as it turned out – was hard not to appreciate.

Shane Williams was at his sniping best, too, and scrumhalf Mike Phillips is right up there with the best No. 9s getting around. If nothing else he must be the biggest, surely, if I’m reading his 101 kg and 191cm dimensions right.

For Wales, it was all about their defence, and the obvious stat that sticks out is their 141 tackles made and only eleven missed. Of those 141 tackles made, flankers Danny Lydiate and Sam Warburton account for 45 of them.

Though the possession and territory numbers evened out in the end, for the most part of the game they were both in Ireland’s favour, yet they only had Keith Earls’ try to show for it.

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Skipper Brian O’Driscoll summed it up perfectly, then, saying post-match, “We were just outplayed on the day.”

And France will be doing well on Saturday to stop Wales too.

Les Blues advance to an unlikely semi-final berth, it has to be said, on the back of a fairly ordinary pool stage which included two losses.

I can’t recall it happening previously, that a team would reach the semis (or even the Final) having lost two pool games.

However, this was a triumph for good old French flair, and for younger readers, the value of getting the ‘one-percenters’ right. They won the game in the first half, just by doing the little things right.

They kicked well and smartly, they forced breakdown and scrum penalties and took the points when offered (England knocked several penalty goal opportunities back), and scored their tries by stretching England’s defence wide.

Somewhat surprisingly, England also tried to play a wider game, but it just never happened for them. Toby Flood looked significantly better in attack than did Jonny Wilkinson, yet Manu Tuilagi made them both look a lot better than they were.

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French No. 8 Imanol Harinordoquy was a thoroughly deserving Man of the Match, but wily scrum half Dimitri Yachvili can’t have been far behind him, with a dominant 50-odd minutes before being surprisingly replaced.

France showed that you just never know what they’re going to do, and reports of squad mutiny will surely now disappear as quickly as coach Marc Lievremont’s beaming smile has reappeared. Fair to say he’s enjoying New Zealand again.

What’s remarkable about the South Africa-Australia match is not that South Africa didn’t win, but that they didn’t win by 20. Sure, a couple of forward passes put paid to what would have been an understandable margin, but the Springboks had a mountain of stats in their favour.

They had more than three-quarters of the territory, more than half the possession, five lineout steals, I-don’t-know-how-many 5+ phases, and tellingly, made only around a third as many tackles as the Wallabies. You shouldn’t lose matches with numbers like that.

Yet somehow – and I’m still scratching my head how – Australia were able to maintain scoreboard pressure. James Horwill’s determined try came on the Wallabies first entrance into the ‘Boks 22.

After Morne Steyn had kicked South Africa into the lead in the 60th minute, James O’Connor struck back with a clutch penalty in the 72nd.

Everything else in between was based on an amazing Wallaby defensive effort, and the guile, cunning, and sheer brilliance of David Pocock at the breakdown. It scares me to guess the scoreline had Pocock not played.

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Somehow, they’ve extended their stay across the ditch by a fortnight, and on a positive for Australia, they can only play better. That they could tough out and win that match playing as poorly as they did is a credit to them.

In the grand scheme of things, this win was enormous, courageous, and very, very lucky. But it’ll do.

Australia’s opponents on Sunday will be New Zealand, who, it must be said, will surely be wondering if their no.10 jersey had a hex applied while at the dry-cleaners at some stage. Only minutes into his first big match replacing “that groin”, Colin Slade’s own groin gave way.

Aaron Cruden did well when he came on, and looked dangerous in attack, but must now be prepared to be cotton-woolled, bubble-wrapped, and kid-gloved all this week.

The Wallabies would surely have noticed how Argentina’s scrambling defence forced a remarkable number of unforced errors from the All Blacks in the first half. New Zealand always looked likely, yet also took poor options at times as the Pumas quickly closed.

Of course, it’s history now that the All Blacks would run away with the game, bringing to an end a streak where Pool runners-up claimed the first three quarter-finals. Argentina were outplayed, but the 33-10 score line rather flattered the hosts.

The big question going forward will be whether Cruden is equipped well enough to win a RWC semi-final, or whether scrumhalf Piri Weepu is in fact the best option at flyhalf.

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New Zealand remain on track for a second Rugby World Cup, and will quite likely be wound in even further by the bookies. But still, that’s not going to allay the fears of a nation going into the penultimate weekend of the tournament with more uncertainty about their main playmaker.

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