Surprises en route to Rugby World Cup semis
Columnist By Brett McKay, 11 Oct 2011 Brett McKay is a Roar Expert
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Rugby World Cup semi-finals
A show of hands, please. Hands up anyone who picked a Wales-France semi-final? Exactly. No-one. I suppose there’s not quite as much surprise around the All Blacks vs Wallabies second semi final though.
It was expected and hoped in even quantities that Australia and New Zealand would meet again, as they did in Sydney in 2003.
Where the surprise comes into it, however, is how Australia managed to get there at all.
But first, Wales will go into Saturday’s first Semi-Final with equal amounts of confidence and momentum.
The way they so clinically disposed of Ireland makes you wonder why in the pool stage they didn’t beat South Africa, and why they nearly didn’t beat Samoa.
Now they’re one win away from an inaugural World Cup final.
France’s midfield defence did a good job of shutting down Jonny Wilkinson and Manu Tuilagi, but as Gordon D’Arcy will testify, stopping Jamie Roberts is a whole other story.
In some ways, it’s a good thing England didn’t win through to the semi, because I would have genuine fears for Toby Flood’s safety.
Roberts was the focal point of Wales’ attack, particularly in the first half, and he gave a perfect example of why the running “big man” is so in vogue at inside centre these days.
Of course he was fed beautifully all night by impressive flyhalf Reece Preistland, who himself has done a top job of running in what once was the domain of Stephen Jones.
Actually, Preistland made good use of his running backs all night, and the way he switched from blind to open side in the lead-up to Jonathan Davies’ try – the match winner, as it turned out – was hard not to appreciate.
Shane Williams was at his sniping best, too, and scrumhalf Mike Phillips is right up there with the best No. 9s getting around. If nothing else he must be the biggest, surely, if I’m reading his 101 kg and 191cm dimensions right.
For Wales, it was all about their defence, and the obvious stat that sticks out is their 141 tackles made and only eleven missed. Of those 141 tackles made, flankers Danny Lydiate and Sam Warburton account for 45 of them.
Though the possession and territory numbers evened out in the end, for the most part of the game they were both in Ireland’s favour, yet they only had Keith Earls’ try to show for it.
Skipper Brian O’Driscoll summed it up perfectly, then, saying post-match, “We were just outplayed on the day.”
And France will be doing well on Saturday to stop Wales too.
Les Blues advance to an unlikely semi-final berth, it has to be said, on the back of a fairly ordinary pool stage which included two losses.
I can’t recall it happening previously, that a team would reach the semis (or even the Final) having lost two pool games.
However, this was a triumph for good old French flair, and for younger readers, the value of getting the ‘one-percenters’ right. They won the game in the first half, just by doing the little things right.
They kicked well and smartly, they forced breakdown and scrum penalties and took the points when offered (England knocked several penalty goal opportunities back), and scored their tries by stretching England’s defence wide.
Somewhat surprisingly, England also tried to play a wider game, but it just never happened for them. Toby Flood looked significantly better in attack than did Jonny Wilkinson, yet Manu Tuilagi made them both look a lot better than they were.
French No. 8 Imanol Harinordoquy was a thoroughly deserving Man of the Match, but wily scrum half Dimitri Yachvili can’t have been far behind him, with a dominant 50-odd minutes before being surprisingly replaced.
France showed that you just never know what they’re going to do, and reports of squad mutiny will surely now disappear as quickly as coach Marc Lievremont’s beaming smile has reappeared. Fair to say he’s enjoying New Zealand again.
What’s remarkable about the South Africa-Australia match is not that South Africa didn’t win, but that they didn’t win by 20. Sure, a couple of forward passes put paid to what would have been an understandable margin, but the Springboks had a mountain of stats in their favour.
They had more than three-quarters of the territory, more than half the possession, five lineout steals, I-don’t-know-how-many 5+ phases, and tellingly, made only around a third as many tackles as the Wallabies. You shouldn’t lose matches with numbers like that.
Yet somehow – and I’m still scratching my head how – Australia were able to maintain scoreboard pressure. James Horwill’s determined try came on the Wallabies first entrance into the ‘Boks 22.
After Morne Steyn had kicked South Africa into the lead in the 60th minute, James O’Connor struck back with a clutch penalty in the 72nd.
Everything else in between was based on an amazing Wallaby defensive effort, and the guile, cunning, and sheer brilliance of David Pocock at the breakdown. It scares me to guess the scoreline had Pocock not played.
Somehow, they’ve extended their stay across the ditch by a fortnight, and on a positive for Australia, they can only play better. That they could tough out and win that match playing as poorly as they did is a credit to them.
In the grand scheme of things, this win was enormous, courageous, and very, very lucky. But it’ll do.
Australia’s opponents on Sunday will be New Zealand, who, it must be said, will surely be wondering if their no.10 jersey had a hex applied while at the dry-cleaners at some stage. Only minutes into his first big match replacing “that groin”, Colin Slade’s own groin gave way.
Aaron Cruden did well when he came on, and looked dangerous in attack, but must now be prepared to be cotton-woolled, bubble-wrapped, and kid-gloved all this week.
The Wallabies would surely have noticed how Argentina’s scrambling defence forced a remarkable number of unforced errors from the All Blacks in the first half. New Zealand always looked likely, yet also took poor options at times as the Pumas quickly closed.
Of course, it’s history now that the All Blacks would run away with the game, bringing to an end a streak where Pool runners-up claimed the first three quarter-finals. Argentina were outplayed, but the 33-10 score line rather flattered the hosts.
The big question going forward will be whether Cruden is equipped well enough to win a RWC semi-final, or whether scrumhalf Piri Weepu is in fact the best option at flyhalf.
New Zealand remain on track for a second Rugby World Cup, and will quite likely be wound in even further by the bookies. But still, that’s not going to allay the fears of a nation going into the penultimate weekend of the tournament with more uncertainty about their main playmaker.
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October 11th 2011 @ 5:49am
Moaman said | October 11th 2011 @ 5:49am | Report comment
Brett….you ask who would have picked a Wales-France semi>? I expected Australia to be in that semi (on that side of the draw) and ,probably,England…….one thing that has struck me about this particular WC is that every week new permutations have been thrown up.
I must be one of the few curmudgeons on the planet not totally enamoured with Wales.Yes—they have played very well….but personally I think they are a coming-side and not the finished article.Ireland were particularly poor imo in that quarter and the welsh were …good. Ever since the draw was announced the game I have been agitated about is the fixture this weekend…..only it was the ‘Boks I was having qualms about and not the Wallabies.Having got my breath back after the weekend’s fresh upheavals I can now look forward to the ‘yellow peril’ that once again (purports to) presents itself on our shores.In the 19th Century it was the Russians.Last century it was the Japanese.Now it’s the Australians!
The Australian effort to overcome RSA was stupendous in defence.NZ,beset by injuries and with 3 new players drafted in,must regroup and suck it up.They have so much to play for and it’s going to be a cracking Semi with no prisoners taken .
ps Joubert will be holding the whistle.
October 11th 2011 @ 6:44am
Ross said | October 11th 2011 @ 6:44am | Report comment
“I must be one of the few curmudgeons on the planet not totally enamoured with Wales.Yes—they have played very well….but personally I think they are a coming-side and not the finished article.”
I agree. They play very attractive rugby and have really allowed young players to come through but at moment they have beaten sides who it isn’t unusual for them to beat. If they get put under huge pressure in the next two matches then it is the experienced players like Gethin Jenkins & Shane Williams who will be the key figures in determining whether they win or lose.
It would be good for rugby if they do win the tournament though and risk taking is rewarded.
October 11th 2011 @ 9:04am
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:04am | Report comment
Hi Moa, can’t disagree with this too much. Even once the QFs were known, I still didn’t see a Wales-France semi emerging, that my real angle there. Certainly, that was the QF Australia were expected to play, and it didn’t take long on Sat night for the “Gee I’m Glad We Avoided Wales” messages to start flowing..
And you may well be right about Wales being a team on the up. Which in itself is a scary prosect as to how good they could become. No doubt these next two weeks are a massive test for them, but on current form, you can’t discount them.
I’ve been very deliberate in not criticising refs this RWC (plenty of others have carried that torch on The Roar), even to the point last week where I was often on my own in saying “just play the whistle, not who’s blowing it”, but I will say I’m happy with Craig Joubert getting AUSvNZL. OJ mentioned in another thread today that this could well mean more breakdown penalties, but he’s clearly been among the best refs of the tournament..
October 11th 2011 @ 3:20pm
Deez said | October 11th 2011 @ 3:20pm | Report comment
Agree with your thoughts here on joubert – he is a great ref and hopefully his appointment will take the focus from this week’s comments away from the ref and onto the footy!
Have my fingers crossed for Beale to get healthy again, as I don’t like the prospect of cooper at 15 (even if he does currently play half the game there). That said, I wouldn’t mind if Beale’s ankle was a bit sore and restricted the number of chip kicks
October 11th 2011 @ 4:52pm
Sage said | October 11th 2011 @ 4:52pm | Report comment
Wales no doubt a team on the up. Aus no doubt very very lucky but a win is a win. At the risk of a boast somehow I’m 4 from 4 to date. We do have a pet Octopus at home that has been quite helpful though.
Wales – Aus final. I’ve comitted it to word twice today so no doubt I’ll get a bucket if I’m wrong but hey, blame Occy.
October 12th 2011 @ 1:41pm
Jason Cave said | October 12th 2011 @ 1:41pm | Report comment
I wonder how many players from the Welsh team would make it into the next British & Irish Lions side, along with those from Ireland, England and Scotland based on their performances in the current Rugby World Cup.
October 11th 2011 @ 2:04pm
Aware said | October 11th 2011 @ 2:04pm | Report comment
Shane Williams didn’t just “snipe”, he also held up a much bigger man to stop a try. The man they said was “too small for rugby” is probably bigger than the game now.
October 11th 2011 @ 3:56pm
Riccardo said | October 11th 2011 @ 3:56pm | Report comment
I reckon. That was AWESOME!
October 11th 2011 @ 6:45am
Viscount Crouchback said | October 11th 2011 @ 6:45am | Report comment
Roberts has been brilliant but he can be stopped. Funnily enough, England usually stop him. You pick a big man opposite him at 12 – and if necessary you even slot your best tackler in at 10 as England did with Joe Worsley in 2009 – and you order him to chop Roberts down all day. The Welshman isn’t always smart enough to change up his game – he’d happily run into a brick wall all match – and you can use that fact to your own advantage. If you do stop Roberts, you stop a lot of Wales’s “go forward” and they can get quite lateral as a consequence.
As for the Wales-France match-up generally, I think Wales are the better team but France are very strong in the areas where Wales are relatively – and it is only relatively – weak, i.e. kicking, in the line-out and in the tight five. I’d quite fancy Bonnaire, Nallet and Hardinoquy to make a mess of Charteris and Wyn Jones in the air.
France will play a kick-chase game, maul and scrummage strongly, and hope to get a lead and then pin the Welsh back through clever kicking, but if the Welsh remain in the game then I think they’ll pull away easily in the second half with their superior fitness. I also can’t really see the French living with Warburton at the breakdown.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:50am
katzilla said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:50am | Report comment
Indeed, Wales do tend to overuse him.
I must say though Priestland gives him a lot of variation in delivery and running angles which helps.
October 11th 2011 @ 6:52am
Mungehead said | October 11th 2011 @ 6:52am | Report comment
Hands up anyone who picked a Wales-France semi-final? Exactly. No-one.
That’s the last time I bother sharing my predictions.
October 11th 2011 @ 9:09am
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:09am | Report comment
sorry Munge, perhaps I should have used the prefix “hardly” in there. And you probably weren’t alone, either…
October 11th 2011 @ 10:12am
Mungehead said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:12am | Report comment
Apology accepted. Australia beating South Africa caught me by surprise anyway.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:31am
soapit said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:31am | Report comment
i picked all 4 this weekend so i guess i’m a legend
tho i must admit i picked aus more than partyl through patriotic duty than a surety they’d win – was always gonna be a 50-50 flip that one tho.
October 11th 2011 @ 6:58am
DanSA said | October 11th 2011 @ 6:58am | Report comment
It’s hard to say how good Wales really are, especially after the pool stages and against Ireland (who looked flat). At least for their sake they are taking this exercise seriously, which is more than the English could say, so good on them.
I’m ultimately wondering if the SH teams have any gas left, both the Aussies and the ABs looked a little “less fresh” than earlier the year …
October 11th 2011 @ 6:59am
kingplaymaker said | October 11th 2011 @ 6:59am | Report comment
I predicted all four quarter-final winners correctly, but that isn’t really the same thing.
Should be a great pair of running semi-finals now the four kicking teams have been eliminated.
October 11th 2011 @ 7:23am
Pot Hale said | October 11th 2011 @ 7:23am | Report comment
The stats don’t back that up, KPM
As you admitted elsewhere, Australia did a lot of kick and defend in their match against South Africa. Here’s the stats from the SA game:
SA – Australia
Kick/pass/run
33 Kicks from hand 38
203 Passes 69
141 Runs 57
488 Metres run with ball 284
Attacking
1 Clean breaks 2
13 Defenders beaten 5
17 Offloads 5
They kicked more than SA, they ran less, made less metres, had one third of the passes that SA made, and less than a third of the offloads – normally a distinct trait of a running game.
Against Ireland, they were slightly better :
Aus – Ireland
Kick/pass/run
14 Kicks from hand 27
78 Passes 84
68 Runs 70
247 Metres run with ball 222
Attacking
1 Clean breaks 4
6 Defenders beaten 6
4 Offloads 4
Ireland had less kicks in this game than Australia took against Italy.
It’s only in the games against US, Russia and Italy that Australia overall figures are better – hardly surprising.
October 11th 2011 @ 7:39am
kingplaymaker said | October 11th 2011 @ 7:39am | Report comment
In those games yes, but in general Australia are the running team and SA the kicking one.
(in fact they had so little possession and did so badly with it that they could hardly get any running beyond four phases going).
Besides, the general point is that the four teams that went through represent running rugby and normally try to play it, while the four teams went out represent kicking rugby and generally try to play it.
So it is good for the game that those four were the ones eliminated, not least because it may encourage them to play a more dynamic game in the future.
October 11th 2011 @ 9:08am
Pot Hale said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:08am | Report comment
“So it is good for the game that those four were the ones eliminated, not least because it may encourage them to play a more dynamic game in the future.”
I don’t agree with the assertion, never mind the intended pomposity, of your remark. Rugby accommodates all styles of play from different teams. Rugby, by its very nature, encourages it.
You acknowledge that Australia didn’t play a running game, but rather a kicking game in its two key matches in the RWC to date. Yet you somehow applaud or approve of this, but dismiss others so that they might be encouraged to play more like Australia normally do, but didn’t do, in the sharp-end games of this tournament.
I don’t accept that England, South Africa or Ireland went out of their way to play “kicking games” as you characterise it. And I’d be interested to see the stats that support your assertion that they did so in this tournament from which you’re glad they have departed.
We are talking in the context of this Rugby World Cup which offers a level playing field to the Tier One teams in terms of preparation for the tournament (unlike the June and November tours which are dogged by second-string teams and end of season flogged player excuses.) In short, every team has the best opportunity to set out its stall to greatest effect, with most of its talent available to play, and sufficient time to properly train and prepare.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:08am
Moaman said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:08am | Report comment
Pot—for once I disagree with something you have said……”which offers a level playing field to the Tier One teams ” <——My impression is that the Northern sides plus Argentina are,by and large,fresher than their southern counterparts due to the arduous and attritional Super 15/Tri-nations.Perhaps only the South Africans had a reasonable rest prior to the RWC commencing.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:27am
Pot Hale said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:27am | Report comment
That may well be the case Moaman, but the attritional Super 15 still only last for 15 games for most teams and the Tri-Nations was shortened this year with second string teams being fielded, particularly by the Boks as you say. The SH teams got more of a taste this season of the longer, more arduous NH season with 22 league games plus H Cup Games as well as 6N tests and RWC warm-ups. I did think it was interesting that a lot more SH players seemed to break down with injury this year prior to the RWC.
Yet it was Victor Matfield, if I recall correctly, who commented on the advantage that the NH teams had over their SH counterparts due to their season finishing sooner.
And yet, I think you understand my point. There’s no ideal time of year, but at least at a RWC most of the top teams have some time to prepare. It is the Tier Two and Three nations who are really disadvantaged.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:35am
soapit said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:35am | Report comment
and you could argue that the teams are better for the run instead of playing warm up games that mean nothing.
not cut and dried either way.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:45am
kiwidave said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:45am | Report comment
Do your homework Pot Hale the Super 15 did not last 15 games.
NZ and South African players in that season then back up for another 10-12 games of NPC or curry cup on top of that. Australians will advise on the number of club games but they back up to. Total number of games is more like 30.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:35pm
Colin N said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:35pm | Report comment
“NZ and South African players in that season then back up for another 10-12 games of NPC or curry cup on top of that.”
I’m sorry but which New Zealand internationals who are in the World Cup squad played in the ITM Cup this season? I only seem to remember Aaron Cruden and that was because he wasn’t in the Tri-Nations or the initial WC squad.
And the Tri-Nations played through the provincial season anyway.
The same went for the South African players and I doubt PDV would have let them play anyway considering they were all ‘injured.’
It’s slightly hypocritical for the SH to spout out the ‘long season’ factor as whenever the NH toured with weakened squads down south – thus getting hammered – and came up with the same ‘reason,’ it was an labelled an ‘excuse.’
October 11th 2011 @ 9:14am
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:14am | Report comment
KPM, you’re also overlooking that South Africa were among the top (if not THE top) try-scoring teams in the pool stages. But you’re commenting from one of your left-of-centre views again today, so I’m not going pick your comments apart too much (which Pots has done anyway)…
October 11th 2011 @ 9:45am
kingplaymaker said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:45am | Report comment
No one’s forcing you to agree Brett, although the world may not be a better place if there were now left of centre views.
I don’t think my position’s left of centre in any case. I don’t find the kicking style of rugby, (rugby being a game based on holding the ball in the hands), is a valid one. I think it is a way of avoiding playing the actual game itself as it largely relies on hoping the opposition make mistakes so as to take the penalties. I don’t accept that a strategy which simply tries to force the opposition to commit an illegality, and negates the heart of the game, which is holding the ball, is a good thing. It is deadly to watch too.
That deadliness and the rejection by rugby fans, including those of the northern hemisphere, of watching the ball hammered into the air all day, is behind the change in law interpretations that has allowed running teams to triumph more and more, and a good thing too. Hopefully the early exit of the traditional kicking teams will further the elimination of Anti-rugby.
In terms of different playing styles, I’m all for a variety and there are some teams which can run the ball more through their forwards, and play a forwards-based game, as in fact South Africa did at the weekend, or spread it wide, or play however they like so long as it does not involve basing the whole game on endless kicks in the air and out into touch.
I would happily see an end to Non-rugby like that and I don’t think I’m alone in it.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:18am
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:18am | Report comment
KPM, I’m not agreeing or disagreeing, just pointing how in your rush to sprout your preconceptions, you overlooked South Africa’s try-scoring in this tournament. “Kicking teams” still score tries it seems..
October 11th 2011 @ 10:19am
Moaman said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:19am | Report comment
KPM……surely each team(in any sport) has the right to play whatever style they deem suits them best? End of the day they will be judged on their results….as England’s team/coaching staff will be eg.I note that Ashton has now come out and more or less said that HE is a legend and MJ should have devised plays and gameplan that revolve around him….well that’s his opinion and perogative.Rubgy would be a poorer spectacle if all teams played the same way—that would be boring!! Pot Hale has shown you some stats…..and stats are useful in pointing out trends.I heard today somewhere that “France play an attractive brand” and “deserve to be in last 4 because they are among the 4 most attacking teams” etc Whilst his may be true of France over a long period of time…MY perception of the French in recent seasons has been quite the opposite.In fact-I would go as far as to say that England have been more attack-minded than France in the last 3-4 years. Perceptions are often coloured by myths.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:34am
Pot Hale said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:34am | Report comment
Spot on, Moaman.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:37am
soapit said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:37am | Report comment
tries scored in pool games against minnows doesnt really show they are committed to running rugby brett.
October 11th 2011 @ 11:01am
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 11:01am | Report comment
no it doesn’t Soapit, but nor does it show that they’re rusted onto a set kicking game…
October 11th 2011 @ 12:02pm
MikeN said | October 11th 2011 @ 12:02pm | Report comment
You guys are missing the point here.
All 4 semi finalists put in great defensive efforts. They are not in there because they ran or kicked but because their defensives structures didn’t break. They bent but didn’t break.
SA ran all match but didn’t win. They let in one soft try and it killed them.
That’s sudden death rugby.
October 11th 2011 @ 12:17pm
kingplaymaker said | October 11th 2011 @ 12:17pm | Report comment
It completely obvious that SA are generally a kicking team and Australia a running one. In fact SA ran more than usual in that match and Australia kicked, although Australia could hardly recycle enough possession to begin to run, but it doesn’t change the essential nature of the teams. If SA had developed a running game since the law interpretations were changed they would doubtless have been far more competitive this year, but they chose not to. Good and good that they were eliminated: kicking rugby is a theft of spectators money, interest and destroys the game.
Moaman re-read my earlier post where I describe how kicking rugby is not a style of rugby at all but a refusal to play the game.
I believe you misquoted Ashton. He criticised Johnson’s tactics but didn’t say the game should revolve around him as far as I’m aware. He was absolutely right too, as Johnson’s tactics, management and selection are the worst imaginable.
‘how in your rush to sprout your preconceptions’ not going to reply to that: it’s no more an argument that saying ‘you’re always wrong’.
October 11th 2011 @ 2:59pm
daws said | October 11th 2011 @ 2:59pm | Report comment
Agree with KPM here, its in the best interest of rugby having four well rounded teams playing off in the semis.
If anything the least ‘even across the park’ final 4 team is the Wallabies with a very talented backline and an average forwardline.
The one dimensional ‘kick and pile on’ rugby that England and SA have created damages the sports image, especially for viewers that don’t understand the game.
October 11th 2011 @ 7:32am
warrenexpatinnz said | October 11th 2011 @ 7:32am | Report comment
Pre the QFs I picked the now semi finalists, the ABs on logical choice, France on passion, Wales on being the best performing team at the RWC so far and the Wallabies, well that was on heart, mine and after that game, theirs.
Wales should beat France on form but can a side play this well all the way through the entire RWC, yes they lost to the Boks but after their (Boks) game against the Wallabies and their demolition of the others (excludes Samoa) Wales on history did well to get that close. France, was their big game England and was Irelands v Wallabies. If France prove me wrong and win they in my logic will be the favourites for the RWC, simply put they have come to play their best rugby during the finals and the RWC final could lift their passion to a new level.
ABs v Wallabies, who knows besides the one eyed fan. Both teams have injury concerns and will be fielding players not at their best and it has only been one or two class players in their team which have kept them in the competition or in the case of the ABs avoid them entering a Semi with a closer win to the Argies than their fans and coaches would have liked.
Weepu and Pocock, superb during the QFs and stood out head and shoulders above their team mates which when we look back to the Tri Nations would have both these teams tracking well below their standards. I believe the Wallabies are more than capableof beating the ABs in a game that really matters now because they have shown themselves to be capable of beating that mental hurdle which stained them through 2009 and most of 2010.
By no means are the ABs anything less than favourites for this clash, home ground, great first five in Weepu (?) and they are the ABs. BUT they are facing a team that can beat them and no booing come Sunday will put off Quade Cooper and Will Genia, no way will the Wallaby pack leave anything in the dressing room and no way will both teams be subject to the lottery calls that have been glaringly evident throughout this RWC, thank god we have Joubert.
Best team will win and I am picking …. heads, the Wallabies.
October 11th 2011 @ 8:05am
kiwidave said | October 11th 2011 @ 8:05am | Report comment
great first five in Weepu (?)
I reckon they’ll go Weepu and Cruden, but with Weepu in the drivers seat from half back.
October 11th 2011 @ 9:20am
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:20am | Report comment
good post Warren. I agree with all your logic going into the QFs, but I had England’s patchy form still in front of France’s patchier form. I just couldn’t take France seriously as a contender. Sacré bleu, I suppose..
And I don’t think there’s any point in anyone trying to objective for the trans-Tasman semi – we’re all well aware of everyone’s allegiances!!
October 11th 2011 @ 12:14pm
warrenexpatinnz said | October 11th 2011 @ 12:14pm | Report comment
France could be anything if they could find that consistency button, very much like a side most of us hold dear to our hearts eh!
October 11th 2011 @ 12:29pm
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 12:29pm | Report comment
I don’t know how you rode it out Warren, but I felt completely emotionally and mentally exhausted once Will Genia kicked that ball into row M. Utterly shagged…
October 11th 2011 @ 5:09pm
warrenexpatinnz said | October 11th 2011 @ 5:09pm | Report comment
Brett I wimped out from the 65minute mark to the 76minute mark, walked down the street and back as my ticker was beating so fast, I was also not setting a very good sportsmanship example for my 10 year old daughter.
I can honestly say I have never ever felt so over whelmed as I was on Sunday and I don’t know why as have watched plenty of close ones over the years and never got that wound up.
Maybe as it is in NZ and the pasting the Wallabies cop on the field and then off the field in the press,? Loving the emotional roller coaster ride but reckon they need to put a warning label on the screen pre any big Wallaby game from now on!
And yes I will harden up this weekend but as posted before I actually feel far more relaxed this week and comfortable that the boys will step up massively from last weekends game.
October 11th 2011 @ 9:34am
jumpers said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:34am | Report comment
The Wannabes got smashed by the Boks and will be on the plane Monday.
They played poorly and will be found out. The ABs will win 20Plus!
October 11th 2011 @ 12:17pm
Freddie said | October 11th 2011 @ 12:17pm | Report comment
In any event they wont be on the plane Monday as they have to hang around for the 3rd place play off.
October 11th 2011 @ 12:27pm
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 12:27pm | Report comment
quite right, Freddie, if only someone had written that earlier. Hang on, I did!!
“Somehow, they’ve extended their stay across the ditch by a fortnight…”
October 11th 2011 @ 10:19pm
Timnaik said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:19pm | Report comment
Jumpers, you fool!
October 11th 2011 @ 10:23am
Moaman said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:23am | Report comment
How have Wales surpassed NZ thus far Warren apart from being ‘most-improved’? NZ won all their matches comfortably…scored the most tries/points etc whilst the Welsh actually lost a game.Remember? Or are you judging them on a different set of standards?
October 11th 2011 @ 12:10pm
warrenexpatinnz said | October 11th 2011 @ 12:10pm | Report comment
The most improved cedrtainly moaman but I also look at their 9-10-12 combination and for me that has them ahead of the ABs, the fact that they have been crisper in set play also ahead of the ABs.
but add to the mix the loss of Carter the ABs are a regular side. Cruden is good but is not a patch on Carter and unless they play Weepu at 10 Cruden will be getting introduced to Mr Ioanne, Pocock and Elsom and that on top of the knockout game nerves it will be a lot for the young bloke to handle.
On player skills, names and overall record the ABs have it over everyone but the standards I am holding up for the ABs is their clinical operation, their set play level which sets them apart from nearly all rugby nations and which was there in spades 2003 and 2007.
I know I may be harsh but I don’t see that in the ABs this time around, the oozing confidence and the complete domination of sides. I bloody well hope it doesn’t return this weekend
October 11th 2011 @ 3:15pm
Moaman said | October 11th 2011 @ 3:15pm | Report comment
Warren; So you aren’t comparing the ABs to Wales…you are comparing them to some mythical beast of your memory.Recall the way they dismembered France in pool play? France…a semi-finalist…not Italy in the 2nd forty or Namibia……The AB scrum has been getting better and better despite the constant personnel changes….Woodcock is slowly getting back to somewhere near decent….Read will be better for a game under his belt and perhaps Kaino will get some support-he has been herculean.The AB lineout is functioning smoothly.Set-piece is not an issue.
October 11th 2011 @ 5:12pm
warrenexpatinnz said | October 11th 2011 @ 5:12pm | Report comment
But Moaman is the attacking prowess there? yes the forwards seem to be getting better but the attacking backs seem disorganized, maybe just keeping their powder dry as that great stats man Ian Jones said after the game on Sunday!
October 11th 2011 @ 7:25pm
Moaman said | October 11th 2011 @ 7:25pm | Report comment
Mate….Maaaaate…….Look at some of the sublime tries they have scored…..sometimes ithink people overlook them because they make some look so easy…..Read’s eg and yet other teams manage to botch identical scenarios.Jane’s try from the inside hanging pop-pass from Weepu was extra-terrestrial.The pass seemed to hang for an eternity…Jane appeared out of nowhere….camouflaged by the movement of Carter and Nonu and when he took the ball he had to change direction twice to run the angle he had selected.Kahui got one with subtle handling and great lines Toeava ,Dagg….maaate I could make a highlights reel for you
October 11th 2011 @ 8:47pm
warrenexpatinnz said | October 11th 2011 @ 8:47pm | Report comment
Too good moaman
, just really looking forward to the game and know both teams will give it their all. Two very good sides and no matter the pot stirring (me never!) by some hope that it lives up to expectation.
Come Monday I could be a token AB supporter or a proud and relieved Wallaby supporter? Go the Wallabies and go the ABs, lets see the SH finally put on a show that highlights what us “southerners” believe, rightly or wrongly, is the way forward in the great game we love.
Note; Wales and France, your pretty darn good as well.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:42am
soapit said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:42am | Report comment
wales should get up. france put together an unbelievable half of footy which they are prone to do once a world cup but they can’t sustain it as we saw in the second half. even less likely to sustain as that first half was so much better than what they’ve been producing for the last 4 weeks. england were bad all tournament as well but didnt have that capacity to rise a level for a half like the french always.
wales have been consistent and pretty good all tournament and have had their little hiccup and survived (blinking when in front against SA).
October 11th 2011 @ 8:38am
AJ said | October 11th 2011 @ 8:38am | Report comment
3 of the 4 teams can probably be satisfied with a semi,
Aus have won twice and might expect more but they were lucky to sneak that one and have been hassled off their game plan too easily .I guess that means those 3 teams might have a “nothing to lose”attitude,which might mean another great weekend of viewing.
I’m enjoying the resurgent Wales.That try by Phillips was just sublime!
October 11th 2011 @ 9:26am
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:26am | Report comment
completely agree AJ – I too thought Phillips’ try had comfortably sewn up the try of the Quarters, but then Argentina scored their cracker from the scrum against NZ. Last week I couldn’t nominate a try of the tourney, but I can now
October 11th 2011 @ 12:11pm
the other Steve - and AB fan said | October 11th 2011 @ 12:11pm | Report comment
it wasn’t THAT good a try (sniff)!
October 11th 2011 @ 1:33pm
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 1:33pm | Report comment
it was right up there TOS…
October 11th 2011 @ 5:25pm
the other Steve - and AB fan said | October 11th 2011 @ 5:25pm | Report comment
I just went to the RWC website to check that Argentina only scored the one try.
The try they scored was pretty good but it wasn’t the Try of the Tournament.
October 11th 2011 @ 8:46am
Darwin Stubby said | October 11th 2011 @ 8:46am | Report comment
Never under estimate that Cruden has been there and done that at junior w/cup level a few years back – he’s improved since the Sydney test – this time he should get the forward effort that was lacking then … I’m just hoping Weepu doesn’t overplay his part as he sometime tends to do – if he doesn’t Cruden can lead this AB side around the park
Also I’m with some of the others above – not totally sold on Wales – Ireland had enough ball to win that game – they just didnothing with it
October 11th 2011 @ 9:30am
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:30am | Report comment
Darwin, I didn’t really have the room to go into detail here, but I thought Cruden was outstanding when he came on. He just offered a point of difference in attack that Slade hadn’t or doesn’t, and in this humble Australian opinion, the ABs would be mad to not play Cruden at 10. Not only would you lose a good, attacking-minded first-five, you’d also weaken a definite strength with Weepu at 9. Ellis or Cowan at 9 just isn’t as daunting a prospect..
October 11th 2011 @ 10:42am
mushi said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:42am | Report comment
As an Aussie I hope they move Weepu from scrum half…
October 11th 2011 @ 4:06pm
Riccardo said | October 11th 2011 @ 4:06pm | Report comment
Absolutely spot on Brett…
October 11th 2011 @ 5:25pm
AJ said | October 11th 2011 @ 5:25pm | Report comment
Cruden slaughtered the reds in super rugby.
October 11th 2011 @ 10:35pm
Coxinator said | October 11th 2011 @ 10:35pm | Report comment
You mean that slaughter that was won by a point with a penalty in the last minute? It obviously rocked the Reds’ confidence….
October 11th 2011 @ 8:51am
ohtani's jacket said | October 11th 2011 @ 8:51am | Report comment
The Wallabies can beat the All Blacks. I don’t think anybody is under any real illusions about that. It wouldn’t matter who was playing, Carter or anyone else, there is always a chance that the Wallabies will win. By and large, the All Blacks are very good at psyching themselves up for their Eden Park tests against the Wallabies and producing a winning performance, but this time they will have the added pressure of a World Cup semi-final on top of the usual expectation that goes with a home test.
Personally, I think they’ve been tracking fairly well. They haven’t been setting the tournament on fire, but they’re unbeaten thus far and have a healthy points differential. The scoreline probably did flatter them in the quarterfinal but on the other hand they wore down a committed defence and showed a bit of patience. Of course I don’t think they truly believed they would lose to Argentina, which makes this weekend’s semi a different story. The start will be important as it was in Hong Kong and Auckland and Brisbane. I’d like to see the All Black forwards do most of the carrying in the early going, but it’s hard to know how tactically astute the All Blacks will be since they’re not always on point even when Carter plays. The two big areas for me are defence in around the rucks, which you know Genia will snipe at, and working it wide without offering up a juicy intercept or being nailed by a defender who’s up off their line. We need to show more patience on the attack than the Boks exhibited and force Australia to have to score in different ways, preferably from set piece. I’m a wee bit worried about Cruden’s defensive channel, but hopefully we cope.
As for Wales/France, I have no idea what to expect. Wales are playing this really clinically, Warren Gatland New Zealand style rugby that is working wonders in New Zealand conditions (at least that’s how I see it as a Kiwi.) France shouldn’t even be there in my eyes, but they’ve probably done a complete 180 by now. Should be interesting.
October 11th 2011 @ 9:35am
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:35am | Report comment
yeah, good post OJ. And I suppose if Sunday night is even half as good a match as Hong Kong and Auckland and Brisbane, then we’re in for a treat one way or the other. Australia will no doubt be bouyed by their defensive efforts in the Quarter, but will also know that they couldn’t play much worse in attack. As I’ve just this morning said to a mate via email, there is no better time – and chance – to end the Eden Park drought..
October 11th 2011 @ 11:04am
Mungehead said | October 11th 2011 @ 11:04am | Report comment
Astute analysis OJ. I (too, reading between the lines) favour Wales and New Zealand over France and Australia, but we’ll see – that’s why they play the semi-finals, to resolve these arguments.
October 11th 2011 @ 12:18pm
the other Steve - and AB fan said | October 11th 2011 @ 12:18pm | Report comment
I would agree with OJ’s prognosis.
Worst thing that the ABs can do is start with an intention to throw it wide and play beautiful rugby.
Belt it up the middle, run the WB props around a bit, defend close to rucks, pick and goes from the 50m mark to about the 22 then drop goals, harrass Genia so badly and cconstantly he takes out an AVO against Kaino…contest every lineout.
I have a slight worry with Woodcocks binding though. A few penalities may result.
October 11th 2011 @ 9:03am
dc said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:03am | Report comment
Hello, I don’t agree that the All Blacks took poor options and made lots of unforced errors vs Arg, and I also don’t believe only a few of the individuals stood out. I saw a team approach vs Arg and great scrambling defence by the Pumas.
But as we would expect, the mind games have started. Aussie posters here should assess the battle in the tight five, because that is where the game will be won. I am expecting the ABs to hold it tight up front and play for dominant territory in the first half.
October 11th 2011 @ 9:37am
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 9:37am | Report comment
Hi DC, you’re well entitled to disagree, I’m not looking for universal agreement. And you’re right about the tight five, that’s certainly going to be a key contest..
October 11th 2011 @ 11:18am
dc said | October 11th 2011 @ 11:18am | Report comment
Hey Brett, no offense mate. Love your posts. The stand out Aussies for me on the weekend were JOC, McCabe, Rocky, Vickerman and Horwill….their defence was outstanding and if they perform at the same level, we are in for a nail biter!
October 11th 2011 @ 12:33pm
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 12:33pm | Report comment
none taken DC, nothing to worry about. If you watch through the last ten minutes again (and I have, four or five times now, and got edgy everytime), around the 75′ mark, Horwill and Elsom put a massive hit on Fracois Louw, and were able to hold the ball to force the turnover.
This is going to be a big call, but I reckon if Australia win RWC2011, in time we’ll look back on this tackle the same way we look back on Stephen Larkham’s drop goal in 1999…
October 11th 2011 @ 1:44pm
MikeN said | October 11th 2011 @ 1:44pm | Report comment
and Michael Lynagh’s try against the Irish in 91???
Pivotal moments
October 11th 2011 @ 1:49pm
Brett McKay said | October 11th 2011 @ 1:49pm | Report comment
yep Mike, add that too. That’s how important that Horwill/Elsom tackle will be…