Rarely in the seven year history of our domestic competition has the battle for the championship been so open, with all seven teams harbouring at least a rough hope of lifting the golden toilet seat on the penultimate weekend of April.
While the Central Coast Mariners and Brisbane Roar battle it out this weekend for premiership (first-past-the-post) bragging rights, and Sydney FC host the Newcastle Jets in a mouth-watering clash to decide who fills the final spot in the six, fast forward to the finals and it looks as open as it ever has, with the most of teams bringing in some up and down form.
Here I cast an eye over the form of the seven sides still thinking about the championship.
Sydney FC
Since going on a four-game losing streak in the middle of the season, Sydney has only lost twice in the past two months. There appears to be a real desire among the squad to send Vitezslav Lavicka off in style, with the team regularly coming from behind to rescue points throughout the season, just as they did on both recent trips to AAMI Park. Perhaps it’s a sign of how well respected the manager is among the playing group.
The Czech has made a few recent changes to his starting 11 that have paid off, with Joel Chianese and Ivan Necevski delivering at either end, and Nicky Carle doing well in a more withdrawn midfield role.
With one of the best away records in the league, if they do manage sneak in to the six they could pose quite a few headaches on the road, particularly if the experienced midfield can keep things tight.
Newcastle Jets
A couple of weeks ago, on a streak of five wins from six games, the Jets looked to be one of the teams to beat, but the past fortnight has seen them pick up only one point at home, with a draw against Gold Coast United followed by the weekend loss to Brisbane.
Gary van Egmond, after a slow start, has had the team playing a more fluent style, with greater mobility and quick movement of the ball. Central to this has been the form of central midfield duo Ben Kantarovski and Jacob Pepper, while the experienced Francis Jeffers and Michael Bridges have been contributing from in behind the striker.
Another key has been the successful switch of Ruben Zadkovich to right back, which has seen Tarek Elrich contributing more in the final third than he did in the back third earlier in the season.
If the Jets are to go on and challenge throughout the finals, Jeremy Brockie needs rediscover his goal-scoring touch. He hasn’t scored in five weeks.
Melbourne Heart
Undefeated in their past six, the Heart’s form, like most, has been a little up and down, with four of those six games drawn.
Central to their chances, you suspect, remains the form of their skipper, Fred, who has been excellent in recent weeks. On Saturday night he played the pivotal pass for both Heart goals, one with the right foot, the other with the left, both superbly weighted clipped balls in behind the Sydney defence.
The Heart, when they start their defending up the pitch, pressing the opponent high, are a formidable unit, utilising the pace of Mate Dugandzic and wonderful feet of Eli Babalj in forward transition.
Both youngsters have been in terrific recent form, and if Fred and his experienced central midfield partners, Wayne Srhoj and Matt Thompson, can find the legs to sustain the midfield press, the Heart might trouble a few.
Indeed, if they can replicate their display against the Roar, they’ll fancy their chances of springing the odd upset.
Wellington Phoenix
After winning four games on the spin between weeks 15 and 18, three of which were on the road, the Phoenix have been less convincing of late, losing three of their past six.
Of course, home ground advantage should certainly suit Ricki Herbert’s men in the opening weekend of the finals, but the manager will be hoping that midfielders Dani Sanchez, Tim Brown, Leo Bertos and Alex Smith can lift to take some of the burden off the central defenders and Paul Ifill.
If the Phoenix can re-discover some of their famed competitiveness, they have a player, in Ifill, who can win any final, but he will certainly need those around him to contribute.
Perth Glory
After an eight game unbeaten run in the middle of the season, the Glory, like the Phoenix, have lost three of their past six.
When they were flying, there was a real solid look about Ferguson’s 11, with Steve Pantelidis joining Bas van den Brink at the back, behind a central trio of Jacob Burns, Liam Miller and Steve McGarry. It’s been physical and tough to break down.
In recent times Ferguson has had a few injures, but if he can get that spine back together for the finals, there is enough quality in the front third, through Shane Smeltz, Travis Dodd, Andrezinho and Billy Mehmet, to push most teams.
Indeed, if they consistently reproduce the quality and control they showed against the Mariners nine days ago, they’ll be tough to beat.
Brisbane Roar
Not quite the machine they were in the opening third of the season, the Roar, in recent weeks, have at least rediscovered some of the mojo that went missing in the middle third of the campaign.
They are now seven games undefeated on the trot and, with five wins over that period, they have closed to within two points of the Mariners with a game remaining.
Go back even further and, after five losses on the spin in December, Ange Postecoglou’s men have only lost one of their past 13. It certainly appears the most compelling form-line heading into the finals.
But they no longer appear as invincible as they looked last season. Indeed, put them under pressure, press them high up the pitch, and the likes of Michael Theoklitos, Matt Smith and Erik Paartalu look nowhere near as comfortable on the ball.
But in Thomas Broich, Besart Berisha, Henrique and Mitch Nichols, they still have enough final third quality, and if the movement of recent weeks is any guide, the desire to back up last season’s success.
Even with their Asian Champions League commitments, most of the smart money is likely to be on the Roar.
Central Coast Mariners
Midway through the season, there was no doubt the Mariners looked the one to beat, but there was always likely to be an impact from Matt Simon’s departure to South Korea. So it has proved, with Graham Arnold so far struggling to replace Simon’s selfless work-rate, with John Sutton not yet up to standard.
Since February, the Mariners have lost four of their eight games, with three of those losses coming against fellow finalists Brisbane, the Heart and Perth Glory.
The reality for the club struggling to make ends meet is that they had no choice but to let go of both Simon and Rostyn Griffiths, but there’s no doubt it’s dented their title aspirations.
They might do enough to hang on and finish first past the post, but to have any hope during the finals they would need the young front three, Tom Rogic, Mustafa Amini and Bernie Ibini to flourish. Rogic, in particular, has been quite the revelation and already looms as the key man in their finals campaign.
With the need to factor in their Asian Champions League commitments, it’s a big ask for Arnold’s men, but if they can rediscover some of their famed defensive steel, they’ll always be tough to beat.
Tony Tannous
Expert
Nice to disagree for once Peter ;-)
Kasey
Guest
Again the FFA are going to look bone headed here. They got extremely lucky last time when Newcastle joined the Mariners in the decider. If FFA thinks they will get more or even close to 36,000 for a Mariners v anyone from outside NSW GF at the SFS, they are on serious class A drugs. A Gosford GF would be a guaranteed 20k sell-out and boy would that look great on TV, not to mention be a shot in the arm for the Gosford football community. Minor nitpicking point: when a supposed football journalist like Ray Gatt uses minor premiership, what hope do FFA have of changing the vernacular in regards to the HAL. Not good enough Ray. Its like the defence reporter getting ADF ranks incorrect. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/football/mariners-to-lobby-ffa-for-bluetongue-final/story-fn63e0vj-1226305651002
Griffo
Roar Guru
Well Tony, I think the Jets have been playing better away than at home in recent weeks (bar the Perth loss) which is some reversal of their home and away form earlier in the season. Newcastle seem to do well against Ange's Brisbane but another 2-1 loss at home and the GCU draw brings the Jets down to the last game against Sydney FC. Taking that away form to Sydney with a win might get the Jets far in the Finals Series from 6th place. Brockie hasn't been the same since his international committments and more importantly his protracted contract negotiations with the Jets kicked off around then as well. A bit distracted and down in confidence I think. I think in a similar vein Jeffers is feeling a bit frustrated at the moment, too. As a matter of interest I checked out my comment on your article from way back at the start of A-League 7: http://www.theroar.com.au/2011/09/28/adelaide-united-to-come-out-on-top-of-a-cracking-season-7/ A Jets win is a must if my crystal ball is to keep it's place in the pool room: "Agree Tony Version 7 will be tough to call as others have been. I think you could be right about the top 4, but maybe a bit different order - draw a name out of a hat for the Mariners, Victory, Roar making up the top-4. 5th and 6th is where the action will be. Sydney will either make it due to Carle et al staying fit and finding new attacking vigor or a few draws and losses will dent confidence and have the team just missing out on the finals series. Perth will look good on paper but I think it will be a rinse and repeat of previous season where it will fall apart and Ferguson will have no plan to give to their players. Jets and Heart have the potential for top-6 and I think will be there - Jets will be solid if those who are coming off injuries remain fit through the season. Look to see those Michael Owen rumours for a ten-game guest stint on loan with the Jets to emerge around December ;-) . To show how close the competition is, Gold Coast will show youth and exhuberence and make 6th or fail this year. Wellington will lose few points again at home but may not recover from a poor start to make it."
Griffo
Roar Guru
That's Joel Griffiths Fuss...
whiskeymac
Guest
such traditions...."C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre: c'est de la folie"
AL
Guest
Could we SFC supporters dare to dream of 1) beating Newcastle on Sunday 2) winning the dunny seat from 6th place???? Mission impossible??? Just let me dream until the end of the game on Sunday. The Jets look good, but still have some rusty spots. Still they break on the counter very well and I fear thats where they will beat us.
Cpaaa
Guest
David Davutovic of the terror graph predicted that the FFA stand to loose at least a 6 figure sum without Sydney or Melbourne V placed in the finals. If CCM was my club and they managed a grand final spot, i would be more than happy to pay extra for my GF seat if the final were to be played in Little Gosford. An overpriced sold out grandfinal is always better than a final with empty seats. I do hope BR do the double, but one must also think what a grandfinal would do for the Gosford Football Community if for once the ball would roll their way.
Cpaaa
Guest
+2
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Brisbane to win both the Premiers Plate and the Grand Final for mine. They do play away mid-week and again on the weekend but its against GCU little over an hour down the road. As the benchmark team from last year and aspiring to go back-to-back they should account for GCU and the kids down there. CCM might find the going tougher in Wellington and I would be unsurprised to see a draw at that game, allowing Brisbane to leapfrog them.
Peter Kandy
Guest
Tony, I find it difficult to see anyone apart from Central Coast or Brisbane going all the way to be honest. Yes the teams have been pretty even during the season but that is partly due to injuries, suspensions etc which with thin squads and salary caps dont allow teams to dominate for lengthy periods. Assuming however that Roar and CC have their top players all available i would think they will be too good for the rest. The Ibini-Amini-Rogic trio is very exciting, classy and dangerous and Brisbanes style is obvioulsy the best and when in form others find it hard to compete. As for the others Perth's style doesnt have enough imagination, Wellington is too reliant on Ifill without enough creativity in the middle, Sydney is simply not good enough and has struggled to get a good run of results all season and the Jets i think require a bit more quality in their squadto be serious contenders, however watch out for them next season if they get a couple of good additions. GVE is def the best Aussie coach going around in my books. Finally as a side note, MV seems to have got it right far too late. But the Jeggo/Ferreira midfield partnership and the exciting Julian Davies bodes well for next season if Harry maintains his current form for another year. Definitely need 2 new quality defenders though and a new Centre Forward, to allow Archie/Harry and Davies to create. (assuming Carlos goes). Davies looks a real talent! Magilton is not the right man but he certainly has the quality in the squad necessary for success if those changes are made.
Axelv
Guest
Kasey, as I recall we were 2 games into the season and I said Adelaide were rubbish and were just as bad as Victory, this was just after your 1-0 win over us, meanwhile the majority of the pundits were perpetuating how Adelaide are the favourites and they will be definitely be there in the finals and how wonderful Adelaide were to get a win off Victory's mistakes (Fabio back pass and Leijer red card) etc :) You refused to believe at the time but now is the time to admit that I was right! :D
apaway
Guest
As a side-note, why have the A-League not scheduled the Phoenix-Mariners and GCU-Roar games to occur at the same time? There was great drama last week when Central Coast-Adelaide and Newcastle-Brisbane were played concurrently.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
Wow - that's amazing stuff! On the week-end Ryan Griffiths played alongside Nicolas Anelka at Shanghai Shenhua. There is no doubt that these sort of players will help the ACL to become very very big ... then the HAL will be taken to a new level. Exciting times keep on coming for Australian football.
Bondy
Guest
Frank @ Rio ,( http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/sport/football/4205834/Rio-Ferdinand-and-Frank-Lampard-top-Chinese-wish-list.html) . Maybe off to China thats some serious coin $ 250,000 k a week .
The Cattery
Roar Guru
While CCM will be the sentimental favourite, there is a lot to be said for watching CCM fail a 4th time in 7 seasons - great traditions can be built around such ongoing failure on the last day of the season.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
It's an interesting point Axelv raises, and certainly true, but not something we should retain an expecation around going forward. The preliminary final is a one-off game, at the home ground of the top 2 team that is in it, offering it an advantage, but otherwise, in the long term, I'd expect the lower ranked team to win it perhaps 30% to 40% of occasions, such will be the closeness in the majority of cases.
Axelv
Guest
I'm sure you know this Tony, but incase you don't I'll remind you anyway. In the past 6 A-League Seasons, there have been 6 Grand Finals with 2 teams in each. 11 of those 12 Grand Final teams have been in the top 2. We've got to be realistic here, Of Sydney, Newcastle, Heart, Perth and Wellington, only one of those will remain by the time they play the loser of the top 2 playoff and on top of that, they will be playing away. Records are there to be broken but realistically, for the Championship we shouldn't be reading too much into those outside of the top two. Although I think Perth and Wellington have the potential to cause an upset, it's a very tough as. Head to Head, I think that Brisbane will beat the Mariners. I hope that the Mariners win this weekend away at New Zealand because I feel that they have been the most consistent and best team of the season, they deserve to win the Premiers Plate. However their recent form since getting rid of 2 key players in Simon and Griffiths has been quite shaky, And Wellington are arguably the hardest away team to play.
Trust Me
Roar Rookie
The Premiers and Champions can be the same team. MV, SFC, BR CCM have been Premiers and played in 3 GFs but never Champions. Maybe this is CCM's turn to be Champions.
Roger
Guest
Correct Cattery.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Reckon the Glory back-room needs to come out with some very compelling reasons for why we let Sterj and Hughes were let go so early, because with our injuries we are simply hobbled.