Low expectations are often a precursor to a positive experience. After all, the lower they are, the easier it is to exceed them.
To say that the bar was set low for the Greater Western Sydney Giants in their initial foray into AFL football is to be the master of understatement.
With the doomsayers lining up to declare a triple figure defeat, in some eyes all the GWS players had to do was run out on the ground with matching socks and jumpers and the night would have been considered a raging success.
But while the Giants’ uniforms were indeed immaculate, they delivered much more than that on the biggest stage in a team over-populated with teenage boys.
David King, on Fox Footy’s premier analysis show AFL360, accurately highlighted the way to watch GWS this year – look for glimpses of talent and brilliance from these young draftees, and try to see what they will be producing as a team in three or four years.
Fortunately for King, the GWS coaching staff, and supporters of the Giants, we saw more than just glimpses.
There was Will Hoskin-Elliot getting three disposals in a chain of possessions that cleared the ball from deep in defence to half forward; Stephen Coniglio leaving no one in any doubt why he was the number two draft pick with his clean hands and sideways movement in traffic; and Jeremy Cameron reading the play like a veteran, displaying the sure judgement in the air of a man five years older.
Despite the presence of senior on-ballers Callan Ward and Rhys Palmer, three other first-gamers dominated the disposals column. Adam Kennedy, Tom Bugg and Toby Greene left an imprint on all who watched, with a combined 82 between them. Greene had the biggest impact of these players, with a game-high 15 contested possessions and a team-best five inside-50s.
Five of the six first-gamers mentioned are 18 years old, the other is a year older.
We saw mature-aged freshmen like Tim Mohr out-marking Adam Goodes one-on-one and mopping up in the back half like a 75-game player, and Jonathon Giles responding after being soundly beaten early by Shane Mumford, coming back to not just break even, but dominate the Sydney big man for periods of the game.
When speaking of mature, it would be remiss not to mention the granddaddy of them all, James McDonald. He was arguably the most impressive Giant in the contest, his crisp ball use and aura of calm when he gathered possession a feature of his play.
The most eye-catching player in the orange, charcoal and white was Alice Springs-born Curtley Hampton. With moves that sparkled like a Twilight vampire, his impressive combination of speed, touch and a natural feel for the game stamped him as one that will follow in the footsteps of current-day indigenous superstars Cyril Rioli, Daniel Wells, and Adam Goodes, and dazzle us all for years to come.
From a team perspective, GWS looked a well-drilled outfit for such a young side, and their emphasis on collective defence held them in good stead when they were under the pump inside defensive 50, led impressively by co-captain Phil Davis’ out-pointing of Sam Reid in the air.
Sydney had 71 inside-50s but could kick only 14 goals, due in large part to the Giants working hard to flood numbers back.
Of course, this effort told when Sheedy’s men rebounded, for they were lacking any targets forward of centre. On many forays they were confronted with only Sydney’s Ted Richards, Heath Grundy and Alex Johnson, who took 21 uncontested marks between them, and 28 overall.
Too often the underdogs would link impressively from deep in defence with a chain of handballs, only to be forced to kick long down the line to the aforementioned Swans defenders.
While GWS will rightly be the focus of much of the attention out of this game, we must also assess what Sydney brought to the table. On face value, they were poor, and this may well be a kind description.
As alluded to earlier, the Swans’ attempts to turn a glut of inside-50s into goals were abysmal. Last year they ranked 16th in the league in this category, running at a conversion rate of 22.5 percent. Last night, it was 19.7 percent.
Sam Reid’s kicking for goal is acknowledged as his standout weakness, and while he doesn’t shoulder all the blame, missing a 15-metre set shot that any self-respecting 12 year old would expect to nail is not a good look.
A weakness last season was being ranked last in the league for playing-on after a mark, and Sydney lacked dash and verve once again. Only five running bounces is a testament to this, especially with three of them belonging to key defenders Johnson and Grundy who, as previously mentioned, were consistently finding themselves in acres of space.
The Swans’ inability to pierce a tired, inexperienced defence, only kicking one goal in the last quarter, spoke to an area of concern that needs immediate rectification if the Swans are going to be a serious top-four threat.
So, what does it all mean for both sides in the year ahead?
From a Sydney perspective, we’ve highlighted areas of improvement, and can potentially ignore the rest. While they will never admit to motivation being a factor in the first game of the year, the efforts of a lackadaisical Mumford and strangely off Goodes might suggest otherwise.
They also do not play ANZ Stadium particularly well. The surface has never been conducive to attractive football, and wasn’t again.
For Greater Western Sydney, a few things were in their favour that may not get a mention elsewhere. They were obviously up for their first ever game, and history suggests that induction teams perform strongly in round one. Even the Gold Coast didn’t lose in the corresponding round last year!
As previously intimated, the ground is traditionally low scoring, and the choppiness of the turf makes it difficult to run and spread. The latter aspect is crucial because while the Giants are going to be a relatively strong contested ball and clearance team, especially for their youth, they will suffer when it comes to outside run.
With this also being the Swans’ great weakness, they were not exposed on Saturday night. A fast track like Etihad or the wide expanses of the MCG will see them found out in this area.
In summary, the match was a more keenly fought contest than expected, but it was only ever going to produce one winner. While it might seem harsh to talk down a side that has won by 63 points, and strange to build up a side that has lost by the same, it all comes back to that word expectation.
For the Swans it was high, and they under-delivered. For the Giants it was low, and they over-achieved. It’s still too early to set a baseline upon which to judge either team.
Sammy Investor
Guest
Yes, the surface was poor. Wouldn't have been insane if one entertained taking the +88.5 points with GWS just on the basis of the poor surface.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
As pundits, we're all involved in forecasting events to one degree or another, so when you see 14 teenagers debuting and being competitive against a very experienced outfit, it's fair to assume that they'll be damn good in a few years time if they stay together. With some of the recent succecssful teams, it has been possible to track five or six teenagers going through the system together to ulitmately win a premiership, so when you have 14+ teenagers going through the system (there are a few others every bit as good as the 14 who didn't play), then that's a pretty good foundation for future success. But I agree with you that there are too many variables to predict things with certainty: injuries, off-field events, loss of players off contract, salary cap, poor coaching, etc, etc,
The Link
Guest
Solid start for the GWS franchise, probably slightly below expectations crowd wise given the clear weekend, marketing build up and talk of the record for a new team, but good save from the AFL with the free tickets. Expectations management is an AFL speciality these days, they are very good at it, particularly as a 60 point hiding is positioned as a win and Folau's contribution as significant. What I don't get is the talk that this group of players will have success in 2-3 years time. There are so many variables in sport that this surely is up in the air, particularly with this team likely to be on the end of some schelackings this year, not the best way to be building a winning culture.
Jaceman
Guest
David Jones Seven wanted more blockbusters if it was going to share TV with Foxtel so consequently more high profile games...
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Mostly a safe question, but don't ask a Carlton supporter that! They insisted that playing the Eagles at Etihad last year didn't really count as a home game because of the ground dimensions and that they preferred playing at the Eagles home ground. Crazy days.
Jaceman
Guest
Sorry that should have read above the Saints v manly game could have been scheduled for Wollongong as well as Manly play the Eels this week
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Im curious .. why isnt playing at Eithiad a home ground advantage ?
Jaceman
Guest
Funny next weekend 3 of the 4 Western Sydney teams play teams that have travelled the previous week (Rabbits v Wests - R back from perth), Titans v Bulldogs (T back from Auckland), Panthers v Sharks (S back from Nth Qld). Eels v Manly may have been scheduled for Wollongong as well but the stadium out of action...(
The Cattery
Roar Guru
It's a conspiracy.
DaveDJ
Guest
Pretty interesting read here Cam and certainly enjoying your regular articles on the site. Expectations were low I agree and GWS certainly exceeded them in this first up encounter however I would like to think that we can wait to make judgement on them until they get at least halfway through the season. It may simply be the case that they cop their hammerings later in the year or even 8 consecutive 100 point losses beginning next week. Gold Coast certainly had some competitive performances last year its just that they didnt put one up in round 1 against the blues and people came out predicting 100 point losses every week. I love the no superstar factor that Chris mentioned earlier forcing some of the kids to step up early not being able to in effect rely on the gun to go in and get the ball. I think their are a number of intangibles as well, the GWS kids may simply trust their ability a bit more than last years crop of Suns teenagers. It is certainly going to be a year of watching for calmness under pressure, gutsy efforts, flashes of brilliance and even occasional wrestle and push and shove to pick out the players who you will want kicking after the siren, playing through pain, playing match winning last quarters, to go to war with in years to come as a GWS supporter.
David Jones
Roar Rookie
If it isn't cheating then what is it? GWS get an easy draw and the teams that play them get better percentages. They also stack the draw so the higher crowd drawing teams like Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon play most of their games at the MCG. They get an unfair home ground advantage. Its about maximising revenue, not having a fair and open competition. I'm amazed at how much AFL fans let Demetriou get away with.
Matt F
Roar Guru
That's a very good point. I was seriously impressed with their movement by hand, though their disposal by foot needs a lot of work, and it will come. The poor kicking was almost certainly the result of both the Swans defensive pressure and GWS having so many players back thatthere weren't many players forward at all. I've never quite understood why some people say that teams who handball alot play an ugly brand of football. Watching the way they handballed their way out of trouble was very entertaining.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
If you hate us now, then in three years, when they have the endurance, the ball skills, the older bodies and the game awareness to go with their existing willingness and the courage, you will really, really despise the Mighty GWS Giants.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
All pretty good points. Some of the GWS youngsters were quite impressive in how quickly and cleanly they moved the ball by hand under pressure and in limited space, but yes, that kick into 50 let them down a fair bit - but most of the time, there was no one presenting. Izzy doesn't know enough yet to present properly (no criticism, he is still learning), it will be better when he has either Setanta or Patton down there for support and to share the load. One of GWS's best players, Hampton, let himself down a fair bit with his kicking inside the fwd 50, sprayed quite a few kicks, something for him to work on - otherwise, he showed plenty of good signs.
Redb
Roar Guru
One thing missing from any analysis I've seen is how well GWS moved the ball mostly by hand ball through the press once they won possession. They are an extremely talent bunch who already appear to trust each other. Some sloppy forward kicking really let them down, but their defensive work and ability to win the contest was impressive. From my vantage point, the Suns individually looked impressive and talented, the Giants showed a better team orientated approach with a group of very talented young players. Once they get there composure by foot and decision making they will surpass the Suns and a few others.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
cam good pick up re Jack. Those who have a sweet left foot, and I put Jack amongst them, normally avoid going onto their right like the plague! But sometimes there ain't much choice in the matter, and they'll do it through gritted teeth.
I'd say that's a sound proposition. Interesting that Jack's first goal for Sydney was on his right. Not too often that the first goal for each side would be on the non-preferred.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Just looking at that photo of Callan Ward winding up on his left foot. He wouldn't have too many kicks on his left in the clear, so it makes me think that this is actually a shot of Ward kicking GWS's first ever goal, which was a running shot on his left. What do people think?
The Cattery
Roar Guru
It's a good point about GWS's coaching staff - a lot of experience there. As Sheeds said, they've only had about 10 weeks together - that's nothing. So the fact that the coaching staff had these kids prepared for this match is a feather in their cap.
Poohdini
Guest
Its obvious that the expectations of most was that the GWS were looking at an upwards double figure loss on Saturday, especially considering the results achieved by the Gold Coast early in the 2011 season. Most people that have followed football over the years would argue that new sides don't enter the league as bad as one would think. But considering the Gold Coast & GWS debuted with a majority under 20's side one could only assume a good drumming is awaiting. Some would believe that the GWS did not recruit as well as the Gold Coast by not picking up any current top end players. After what some would consider a weaker debut side then the Gold Coast, the performance of GWS on Saturday was well above expectations which makes you question what has the GWS done different to the Gold Coast? I would argue that it stems from the top. The Gold Coast in its first game not only had a large group of debutants on the field but in the coaches’ box. Guy McKenna a young untried coach cannot compare to what a Kevin Sheedy or a Mark Williams can bring to the table. It is still unclear how McKenna will grow as a coach & how he will handle his team when they come of age, but one thing is for certain if anybody can get a group of young early 20 year olds to perform Kevin Sheedy can. Don’t be surprised if GWS wins a flag before the Gold Coast.