Rex says Wales are coming to Oz to win

Since the world cup,i think Wales have progressed through the six nations,not just because of the grand slam,but through the gradual collective confidence this welsh team possesses,it also looks like Jonathan Davies could be out of the tour!Hook will hopefully get a start,which in my opinion,will be an asset on the fields in OZ,Priestland is still a good 10,but with ball in hand,Hook is one of the most dangerous player's in the game,the Welsh pack,looks to be intact,with Charterist back playing & six nations lock Ian evans back playing great rugby! Gatland most probably wont even make the tour,due to an unfortunate accident in NZ... Oz will always be strong on home soil,but Wales have the players 2-1 I will really look forward to all 3tests,all positives for Wales

Thanks Ben S I'm glad we both agree... Colin N - Okay fair enough low blow on Botha not being good enough but if South Africa and New Zealand can donate players to England, ( Botha, Catt, Barrit, Fourie, Stuart Abott, Hape, Flutey, Vanikolo, Hartley etc. ) and still beat England on a regular basis it must say something about the depth of South African and New Zealand rugby. The article was only in response to the perceived lack of depth in South Africa. First of all the Stormers unfortunately have Alistar cotzee as coach. He couldn't get the Bok bacline to do anything under white and was pushed into the background by Eddie Jones who got the Bok Backline to Fire which was great to watch. Sharks biggest issue at the moment is the evil axis of Plumtree and Straeuli. Plumtree was a good forwards coach but is clueless when it comes to other areas of the game. If you watch any of the sharks games I would say 80% of the tries scored against the sharks is 5 minutes after they received the kick off. I have always thought the top three sides in South Africa to be equal, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. This why I never bought it when my fellow Sharks supporters were saying that we had the edge against the Bulls. Maybe its because I had watched a lot of age group rugby in SA but I knew it was going to be a tough game. The Bulls once again have the most tries in the Comp. and 50% of those tries were scored by the back three. http://www.rugby365.com/tournaments/super14/news/2868284.htm The issue in South Africa is always and has always been coaching. England will be one of the favourites come the next world cup young team, good coach and home support.

"He will carry his form super rugby into the international series." A pretty bold statement to make. He was excellent in last year's Super Rugby, but I don't know, he's been less effective this season with the Stormers struggling to open up defences unlike the previous season. He reminds me of Spies in that sense, but we'll see what happens in June. I like Etzebeth and I personally see him as Botha's long-term replacement, was really impressive in JWC. "Furthermore the Botha that now plays for England wasn’t good enough to play for his own country so he doesn’t really stand a chance." See, I dislike that sort of comment. I spoke to a South African player currently plying his trade in England as a professional player and he said that European coaches spend their time with every player no matter of their ability, whereas if they are not perceived to have the physical build etc in South Africa then they are discarded. Therefore, good players are lost. Botha is not a long-term option for England as he's 29 and there are lock options coming through, but he's been excellent for Saracens, was called up to England and was very good in the Six Natons. Just because he didn't make it in South Africa doesn't mean you should discard his abilities especially when I assume you haven't seen much of him. Another example is openside Hendre Fourie who would have been a superb international player if someone from either South Africa or England had picked him up earlier IMO. "Next point Tom croft isn’t half the flank that Williem Alberts, Juan Smith (who unfortunately is out this season ) or Schalk burger." He's done far more in Test rugby than Willem Alberts has!! I personally think Tom Croft is a world class player, although Smith and Burger are both exceptional players. Juan Smith's a bit like Richard Hill, you don't know quite how good he is until he's not playing. "Furthermore England doesn’t have a openside flanker that can compete on the ground like Bismark and Brussow." Yep, very much agree. Robshaw adds nuisance value but isn't a natural fetcher, although Cole and Cobisiero are surprisingly good over the ball. There was a turnover against France on his own try-line instigated by the latter which was a superb piece of work. However, it frustrates me because it's not like we haven't had the chance to put in a natual seven over the last few years, but they just haven't been favoured by various coaches. "Meyer is assembling a really good coaching team and for once you will see the Bulls players actually playing to their potential, because all along they felt that Meyer should be coach, not Jake White, not PDV but Meyer." I've got to say, I think the Bulls have overachieved because they are so well coached. I look at their stock compared to other South African sides and Super Rugby teams in general. Of the South African teams, I think the Stormers are better on paper and I would argue the Sharks have better players. Then you have the Crusaders, Blues, possibly the Waratahs etc. It's interesting hearing Meyer, it sounds like he's very much going to play the stereotypical South Africa way. But if he does that, I can see them being undone in the scrum by England and I'm not sure about the lineout, particularly if Parling and Croft play for England, and can disrupt their ball. If they do that England have a chance. Personally, I think South Africa will win three narrow Test matches, but my issue was your appraisal of both sides. I thought your analysis of both teams was disingenuous and wide of the mark.

You're right, Steve. South Africa has the best players in world rugby.

From the top....... Beast had an issue with his heart which is sorted out, what is keeping him out of rugby is an ankle injury. In reserve props we have Coenie Oosthuisen ( have you watched this man get around the park i.e. Cheetahs vs Hurricanes), Dean Greyling from the bulls who carries the ball really well. Both have caps for the Boks and both will do well under the guidance of Meyer. Jannie will pack down on the otherside of the scrum which means it will be a very solid front row. Maybe not as quick as England props according to your summation but all have high work rates, with high anaerobic fitness and solid enough at scrum time. No more having to find space for dead weight in the team i.e John Smit. I would say 90 percent of Bekkers games have come off the bench for the Boks so its difficult to make your mark at test level, but he has had exposure and knows what it is all about. He will carry his form super rugby into the international series. Furthermore he has been under the guidance of victor matfield for a good few years now and he is right to step in. Bakkies Botha is 32 and still playing Pro rugby in france why not call him in if he is available and provide guidance to the younger players that coming up i.e Eben Etzebeth, Flip van der merwve.Alberts will be another cover for lock which will allow the Boks the opportunity to change tactics depending on conditions. Furthermore the Botha that now plays for England wasn't good enough to play for his own country so he doesn't really stand a chance. Lawes on the otherhand I really like, He is a really good footballer it will be good to see how he goes on the dry paddocks in South Africa. Yeah ofcourse I know that the numbers are in reverse for the flanks a slight bit of confusion on my part I apologise. Next point Tom croft isn't half the flank that Williem Alberts, Juan Smith (who unfortunately is out this season ) or Schalk burger. Spies has been good this year but Ashley Johhnson, Keegan Daniels ( even though i think he should play flank ) and Duane Vermulen better as they don't go missing in tight games. Furthermore England doesn't have a openside flanker that can compete on the ground like Bismark and Brussow. Meyer is assembling a really good coaching team and for once you will see the Bulls players actually playing to their potential, because all along they felt that Meyer should be coach, not Jake White, not PDV but Meyer. I hate the bulls but that is the style the Boks are going to play from now on (At least it will be a style , god PDV was a terrible coach). I think you will see the ball get a lot more width as the bulls do like to run it from time to time and the players are more than capable to give it some air. Lambie, Hougaard, Pietersen and F Steyn are highly talent, intelligent players, who a proven at test level. Other up and coming young backs like Goosen, Willie le Roux, the Eberson Brothers, Lwazi Mvovo, Bjorn Basson, Elton Janetjies, Sadie will do well under the guidance of such players as De Villiers, Fourie, Juan De jongh, Butch James, M Steyn. So there is a wealth of talent there but the issue for any South African coach is can you get players from different unions to Gel. If you have realised this South African teams hate each other, its a rivalry based on the social, political and historical background of South Africa. Thus it becomes difficult to manage players so that they gel correctly. Meyer is a good people manager and I think he will be one of the few people to achieve a united Springbok side. All in all I think it will 2 -1 series win to South Africa, but 3 - 0 isn't unimaginable.

"Bekker has 24 caps and Van der Merwe has 11 new but hardly untested plus the Boks still have opition of bring back both Botha and Matefield. Botha being the more realistic option." Wow, Bekker has 24 caps, shows how average he's been in Test rugby so far if he has that many caps but done nothing in internationals to make him stand out. If South Africa then needs to bring back Botha, it highlights the lack of depth that area. Either that or a lack of wanting to try out the young players. It generally takes time to generate partnerships and, however good you think Bekker and van der Merve are, they are replacing the best lock partnership in the last 10 years. Also, Matfield was in a league of his own when it came to a lineout forward. It doesn't matter if Bekker is 6 ft 10 and athletic, it takes more than that to be a great lineout operator. For example, Geoff Parling is only 6ft 5 but led England's lineout superbly in the Six Nations "I’m sorry Tom Croft doesn’t even stand in Henrich Brussows shadow." Hey? Brussow wears six but is very much an openside. You do know that South Africa play with left and right flankers and the person who wears seven traditionally acts as a blindside and the one who wears six is an openside?. "The thing is South Africa has depth and talent, I forgot to mention Butch James, Jean De Villiers and Brian Habana (I Hope he doesn’t make the Boks again)." Why don't you want Habana to play for South Africa again? Is that because he's done nothing in Test match rugby for several years? Hardly a vindication of South African depth. Look, there are numerous players in England 25 and under who have shown plenty of ability, but I'm not going to talk about depth unless they've proven themselves as Test match players. Yeah, Basson has shown good Super Rugby form, although not so much this season so far but last, but you can't say he's good enough for Test rugby until he's proved himself on the internatonal scene. Mvovo's been average this year with the exception of a 70 metre run against the Brumbies. Also, the 'second choice' players he listed were the ones you put down. I think the point he is making is that Basson and Mvovo are yet to prove themselves at international level which is true. We already know that Jean de Villiers and Fourie are established and world class Test players. However, they still play to the typical South African stereotype and aren't creative players. I always like this topic of the subject of South African depth. We hear it every season. I remember a couple of years ago, when they were touring Europe, people were stating they have plenty of depth. They then went up against the Leicester C team and lost. They also go and lose to Saracens. After that, they came up with the excuse that certain players were only picked under the quota system, the same people who, before the tour, were saying that South Africa had a squad of 40 quality players. "South Africa managed to beat both the Biritsh and Irish lions, New Zealand in New Zealand, Wales at the world cup amongst other victories with the worlds most useless coach." Which proves nothing. This team is new and untested. Anything that has gone before means nothing. If you really want to look at the recent past, look how average South Africa were at the World Cup. But equally, they have a new coach, new players (in a sense), so there's no reason to look at past results.

Pot, Deans is on record saying that he expects to draw his squad for the Scotland test from the Force and Brumbies who have the bye that week. That rather implies he isn't getting to pull anyone out early.

Again, I presume Beast will be out because he has heart issues. Therefore, Corbisiero and Cole are quicker than their opposities. du Plessis is a far better hooker than Hartley, but faster. Very debatable. Lawes is a four lock, Bekker five. I would even doubt your assumption, but Lawes is quicker than who you presume will play four, van der Merve and Parling is quicker than Bekker Botha looks similarly quick. If Botha plays four and Parling five then they're quicker than their opposities. Croft is one of the fastest forwards in the world and faster than whoever plays in that position, I assume Burger. Brussow has the edge over his opposite and Spies is very quick. Even though it's a ridiculous thing to debate anyway, man for man, England probably have a more mobile forward pack. And even if you think South Africa have quicker pack, it is so minor that it is unlikely to take effect.

Just like a B team was enough for Samoa KPM, and watching the Super Rugby I forsee plenty of problems for the Aussies in June.

Slower as in Slower than the South African Forwards not as in Slow. Beast is a Flank Converted to Prop, Spies is a wing Converted to 8th man, Bekker is faster than Lawes, Bismark, Chilliboy, Strauss, Liebenberg are all better hookers than Hartley and faster than him. Know your opposition first...

Bekker has 24 caps and Van der Merwe has 11 new but hardly untested plus the Boks still have opition of bring back both Botha and Matefield. Botha being the more realistic option. I'm sorry Tom Croft doesn't even stand in Henrich Brussows shadow, nothing England can produce or as is common with the England side the rest of the world produces for England can match what the Boks have to offer in the loose forwards. I like how you compare the Boks second stringer back line players to Englands First. Flood is and as always been pedestrian who happens to be the best that England can produce. The thing is South Africa has depth and talent, I forgot to mention Butch James, Jean De Villiers and Brian Habana (I Hope he doesn't make the Boks again). Lambie played against both Samoa and Fiji, in incredibly physical matches and played really well. He took the hits and set up some pretty good tries. England had a fairly average year against what for the most part was average opposition (except for Wales and Ireland). Every year the Northern Hemisphere talks up their chance and then gets belted it gets a bit old doesn't it. South Africa managed to beat both the Biritsh and Irish lions, New Zealand in New Zealand, Wales at the world cup amongst other victories with the worlds most useless coach. The players were effectively coaching themselves . England hasn't beaten South Africa in 6 years that speak volumes.

Pot Hale, I agree that Cardiff Blues have only a slim chance of beating Leinster if current form is anything to go by. The Scarlets are still in the Amlin Cup and have a puncher’s chance of beating Brive to reach the semi-final. They also have a chance of qualifying for the league play-offs. The season is far from over for them. The regular season of the domestic league runs until the 5th May with the knock-out stage finishing on the 27th May. I don’t know how successful Gatland would be in convincing the Welsh regions to rest players. The players aren’t on central contracts and the regions aren’t obliged to put Wales’ needs before their own. A handful of players play for French or English clubs (Craig Mitchell, Rhys Gill, Andy Powell, James Hook, Lee Byrne, Mike Phillips). They’ll get no rest until their club season ends. The first Welsh international is against the Barbarians on the 2nd June. The first match against Australia is on the 9th June.

I didn't say that South Africa was one-dimensional under White, although I note you add the caveat World Cup, i.e. Eddie Jones. You disagree that Mallett was unable to get South Africa playing a non-typical game? England? What time period? The current England back row is probably one of the least experienced back row in world rugby, but it's debatable that South Africa have a blindside flanker better than Tom Croft. Flip van der Merwe is utterly unproven at Test level, as is Bekker. That fact is unavoidable. The England pack is actually very, very mobile, and probably more mobile than the SA pack. Mtawarira has struggled against European scrummagers and it's unlikely he'll even be playing. You're entitled to your opinion re: the South African backs, but I'm seriously underwhelmed by them and have been for years. Players like Flood, Ashton, Youngs, Foden and Tuilagi have all proven themselves at the highest level. Mvovo, Lambie, Basson, Aplonm and Du Jongh haven't. South Africa were fortunate to beat Wales, and that they couldn't beat an Australia side who won such limited possession speaks volumes.

I won't even bother debating the many, well, debatable points of his comment because of this: "against the slower England forwards." Cobisiero, Cole, Lawes, Botha, Palmer, Croft, Morgan. Even Robshaw and Hartley aren't exaclty ponderous. If you don't know that, at the very least, England have a very mobile pack, how can someone make a judgement on the upcoming series when they don't know anything about its opposition?

If South Africa was one dimensional under mallet and white ( at the world cup ) then England must have been a rugby void. Juan Smith Barely featured for South Africa at all last year, the loose forwards will be Spies, Burger, Brussow with Alberts as back up all tried and tested players for the boks and better than any combination England can offer. Bekker will step into Matfields position and will only further assert our dominance in the lineout.Flip van der merwe is a lock in mold of Bakkies and will establish a physical presence. Bismark is hands down the best Hooker in the world its just our props that lack abit but on the dry paddocks and altitude Beasts mobility will come handy against the slower England forwards. The backline will most likely be hougaard, steyn, Mvovo/Basson, F. steyn, De jongh/Fourie, Pietersen, Lambie/Aplon. All tried and trusted combinations for South Africa and far more talented than anything England can offer. So 3 - 0 is very likely but I think England can still pull off an upset after a brutal Super Rugby season. ( I havent put any of the cheetahs backs because I'm only using those players that have already played for the Boks) How was the South African side mediocre at the world cup??? We were playing some really good rugby in the toughest pool of the competition and finished undefeated and in quarter final we were all over Australia but could find that break to give us the lead. These things happen.

The Cardiff Blues play Leinster this weekend in the quarter-final of the European Cup. There's a good chance, they'll be beaten, and that will finish participation in European rugby this season for Welsh rugby. Ospreys remain in the hunt for a play-off spot in the league, and they likely will remain in competition until mid-May at least. Dragons and Scarlets are into their last 3 league games with little to play for. Gatland may look to cotton wool test squad players who are surplus to requirements. Gatland badly wants a SH scalp - down South. I'm not sure how much preparation time the Wallaby squad will have before their first test against Scotland and then against Wales. Do people know if Deans is allowed take out players from S15 matches in advance under normal international window commitments so they they have sufficient preparation time?

Wales have the best shot in Brisbane, and from there they can build momentum. I think it will still be 2-1 to Australia with Wales winning the first test by about 12.

1, 2, 3 & 4 totally agreed. Good points.

You haven't been following rugby in Australia this year Wmffre. Wales have just taken a grand slam, and Australia's super15 teams have been well below par. Anything less than 2-1 will be seen as disappointing by Australians, but we are not holding our breath.