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I caught up with Rex Goodwin on the weekend. Rex, for those who may be unfamiliar with some past interviews on The Roar, is known as the Rugby Vampire or the Rugby Buzzard because he’s been picking over the bones of Australian rugby, as he puts it, “Since Joey was a boy.”
He went over to Europe to watch the Six Nations and get a handle on what the locals think of the June tours. Here are his comments, if I can read my notes.
Me: You were in Cardiff, Rex?
Rex: London and Cardiff, yes. Talked to some old mates, all of them Taffies, and got a peek into their collective crystal ball.
Me: Was it cloudy or clear?
Rex: Clear. They see Wales winning 2-1. They’re the Grand Slam champions, so it’s not hard to see why they’re confident, especially as it’s no secret that Aussie rugby is currently on the downslope.
Me: Which Test do they think they might lose? I’m guessing the first one.
Rex: You got it. It’s a tall order to fly 12,000 miles and launch into an international right off the bat. And Suncorp is a tough place for the Welsh to play because it’s made for pace and my Welsh pals concede that their team doesn’t have the speed the Wallabies have.
All this is contingent, of course, on both teams staying free of injuries, or recovering from same, come June. If that’s so, then Wales pretty much know their run-on 15. We don’t, but if we have Digby, Genia, O’Connor, Ashley-Cooper and Beale in the backs, we’ll be pretty fast.
Me: So if your mates are conceding Suncorp, they see wins in Melbourne and Sydney. Why?
Rex: Partly because few Wallabies are comfortable playing in Melbourne. It’s still not a rugby town. Also, June is traditionally chilly and rainy in Melbourne and as they say in Cardiff, it rains when Wales plays because God wears a red jumper.
They have a great front row, first class locks and a dynamic back row. Sam Warburton is terrific. We’ll have a dynamic back row too if Palu plays the way he did last Saturday, but our scrum won’t get much change from the Welsh scrum so the Welsh feel they’ll win the forward battle and with it the Test.
Me: If that proves true, Sydney decides things.
Rex: Traditionally, only March has more rain in Sydney than June so the Welsh are hoping for another forward battle. And if they win in Melbourne, they’ll have the momentum.
But it’s not all forward play for Wales. North and Cuthbert are fine wingers. Cuthbert is six feet six, and North six feet four so if O’Connor plays on the wing look for several cross field punts. Jamie Roberts – Roberts the Crash they call him – provides a lot of go-forward and with Jonathan Davies outside him it’s a formidable backline.
Mike Phillips worries my pals. In some of those Six Nations tests he stood over the ball looking like a man trying to remember a phone number. And when he ran he dawdled. It’s definitely a weakness Deans will look to exploit.
Me: All the same, you don’t sound too happy re the Wallabies.
Rex: I’m not. Whoever plays it’ll be an unbalanced team. Uncoordinated. There’s no way you can wave a wand and suddenly get 15 men, most of whom are tired and playing poorly, and magically get them to gel. Especially as we don’t have a recognised five-eighth. It can’t be Barnes. It’s not his bag. And you can’t bring in a great gap runner like Bernie Larkham and get him to coach somebody to spot the gaps. It’s unteachable.
If the Wallabies are to win the series against Wales they’ll have to do it on a modicum of talent and a whole lot of pride and guts. One thing we do have going for us is history. We’ve played each other nine times in Australia and we’ve been the victors eight times. We own them in Oz, but my pals think that’s about to change.
Me: How do they think England will go in South Africa?
Rex: Boks three nil. While they feel, correctly in my opinion, that England has done extremely well to recover from the Rugby World Cup, it’s still a team in the process of forming and Lancaster I’m sure would rather not take them to the hard, fast grounds of the Republic at this point in time, especially with those manic home crowds.
England still don’t have a breakaway midfield or two wingers that’ll bring you out of your seat. Their pack is their strength and the Taffies feel the Bok pack will eat them with a spoon.
Me: June is going to be an intense rugby month. I can’t wait.
Rex: Neither can I. If Wales loses the series, my Welsh pals can count on some scathing e-mails from me.
Me: Thanks for your time, Rex.
Rex: You’re entirely welcome.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.