The Queensland Maroons side has been backed into favourtism to win State of Origin 2012 and make it six series wins in a row.
The shortening in odds by bookmakers was a market correction as bookies were trying to gauge a feel for what punters wanted to do and few substantial wagers were taken at the “overs”.
The key to winning this year’s Origin will be Game I to be played at Melbourne’s Etihad Stadium.
The winner of this game will become a very short favourite to take the series as it is an “away” game and the winner will have another game in their home state.
The Origin dates are:
Game 1: Wednesday 23rd May in Melbourne.
Game 2: Wednesday 13th June in Sydney.
Game 3: Wednesday 4th July in Brisbane.
My ratings suggest that the likely selected teams will both be stronger than last year – a big statement given legend Darren Lockyer and Mark Gasnier have retired.
Punter can secure 100 percent by backing both sides at the moment, and that will likely improve when the Betfair market gets some liquidity.
Why the Maroons are stronger:
• They should have a fit Greg Inglis and Justin Hodges for all three games giving them the world’s two best centres.
• The bench will be stronger with likely additions Matt Gillett, Josh McGuire and either Ben Barba or Daly Cherry-Evans. Rooster Martin Kennedy is also fit this year.
• The move of Thurston to replace Lockyer and Cronk to start at halfback is a bonus as it offers a genuine organiser at first receiver and allows the brilliant Thurston to rome on both sides. This combination will give the Maroons the same key positions of 1, 7 and 9 as the unbeaten Storm, who will enjoy game one at home.
Why the Blues are stronger:
• They will have a world class second receiver in Todd Carney to replace Soward.
• A world-class fullback (either Dugan or Morris) will replace Minichiello.
• Danny Buderus strengthens the hooker position.
• Gun young forward Taraq Sims will add to the bench.
• Michael Jennings made 11 tackle breaks and three line breaks in Game 1 and never played in Game 2 and 3. He comes in for Gasnier and Hopoate.
• Coach Ricky Stuart to learn from 2011 selection blunders like selecting Dean Young as starting hooker over Robbie Farah, non selection of Jarryd Hayne, Anthony Watmough, Glenn Stewart, Luke Lewis (G1), Anthony Minichiello at fullback (G2 and G3) over Hayne, Brett Stewart, Gidley, Coote, Merritt or Brett Morris.
Summary: Maroons has the three best organisers in the game with Cronk, Thurston and maybe Cherry-Evans and the best general in Smith, but the Blues will have the best forward pack led by the amazing Paul Gallen.
If Cronk is allowed to run the show like he does at the Storm and Thurston can get the ball when he wants it, then despite the strong Blues 17, the Maroons will have too many smarts.
Ralph joe
Guest
I think Brett kimorley should be the general,Brett Stewart for back up and Anthony kiedas from the chilli peppers to spice things up.
Luke Alaluku
Guest
Please Guru can you confirm that, if the QLD team wins again this year it will be their sixth title in a row? Did the QLD team started their winning streak back in 2006 or 2007? I am certain it must have been 2006. I do not know if I am correct here. Luke PNG
Greg
Guest
Amongst, other players, I truly cannot believe Brett Morris would even be remotely considered. His main trait is simply catching a ball and finishing off the good work of others and yet he can't even do that right! He has not scored one try at origin level, and NSW have not won a single game with him in the team. Not only that, he has costed tries ie. Jharal Yow Yeh, Izzy Folau. Last year, it was ridiculous to see him picked ahead of Jarryd Hayne, who is a brilliant player, and has been one of the few blues to stand up to the mark. Everybody rants on and on about Hayne, yet you hear so little about Morris, so why on earth does he keep getting selected like he's some superstar! It's probably not right to pin a team's success down to one player, but if I were coach, Brett would be the first to go. I'm a Queenslander, so maybe I shouldn't complain, because it seems that whenever Brett's in the team, Queensland will win :)
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Planko sorry was in the air...u can always get updated on my facebook/championprofits
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
mfree I think we all thought Pearce was going to be the next Joey Johns based on what he showed as a teenager, but by the time he reached 20 he had peaked and has not improved.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
peeeko Correct
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Wooblies Dont forget Hodges
peeeko
Roar Guru
we are not blaming pearce. the difference over the last 6 years has been in the halves. lockyer,cronkk and thurston are a lot better than the halves NSW possess. and watmough played well last year
peeeko
Roar Guru
we are not blaming pearce. the difference over the last 6 years has been in the halves. lockyer,cronkk and thurston are a lot better than the halves NSW possess. and watmough played well last year
mfree
Guest
gazza you cant blame pierce for 6 in a row but however he doesnt provide a potent attack required to win origin games in the time his played for the blues ans when you compare the pressure locky was putting on our fullbacks with his kicking game last year pierce didnt have a fraction in comparison but in the end of the day its not his fault ricky keeps choosing him to make daddy wayne pierce happy.
Gazza
Guest
Fellow New South Welshman stop blaming Pearce and blame him for 6 in a row its our forwards that r the problem Pearce gallen and soward were our standouts last year ennis,king,mannah,watmough were the problems
Gazza
Guest
Pearce is the best halfback in NSW
mushi
Roar Guru
Yes Gallen is top notch and one of the few forwards in the game that can do both, Tallis could do the same in his day. Problem is NSW keep picking the wide running guys and expecting them to chip in like Gallen. Won't ever happen. What they need to do is look at the crappy QLD teams taht managed to bat above their weight. Try and win the advantage line and keep the game close that way the "lucky" things in the game like referee's decisions, bounces of the ball etc actually make a difference and you win games despite not always being the better team on the day.
Blazza
Guest
Scott i'm sorry but to now again put Cherry-Evans over Cronk is a joke. Maybe in 3-4 years or so but Cronk is the best Half in the world. 14 try assists from 6 games so far, ARE YOU KIDDING ME ???. That's Andrew Johns like. He is pure class atm and i think untouched, severely underrated by league fans and some experts because all they see down in Melbourne is Smith,Slater and Bellamy. I can't see Mal making to many changes although would love to see Parker start and lock, i think he brings more to a team than Harrison. McGuire has been Brisbane's best prop so far so he is in with a sniff and Gillet may get the utility role instead of Barba and DCE. We have to remember QLD wont make to many changes if any. The one forced one i see is either Nielsen or Chambers to come in on the wing. One player that needs to get some hype in Sydney for the Blues is Ryan Hincliffe. May not be to everyone's fancy but he'll get the job done, and plays hooker/backrow.
PLANKO
Guest
10 schooners at half time !
PLANKO
Guest
I am getting 101 for Teo to score the first try !
PLANKO
Guest
mmm you say that in jest but the scary thing QLD just voted for someone who quit his part time job at the Woolie's deli !
Chop
Guest
Campo is playing, unless something happens in warm up. I'm taking the $3.30 I've got with Teo but more importantly Wallace missing.
Chop
Guest
Wobblies fan, I'm surprised you gave us a game, very generous of you. At the end of last season I went for 10 and I'm a NSW supporter.
League_coach101
Roar Pro
You could even argue that who ever wins the first two games will most likely win the series. Just saying...