The quality of the data that is input into building Sportsdata’s NRL Contribution Value Rating (CVR) is only as valuable as the 50 chosen filters that spurt out the final analysis, which is often heavily interpreted already.
Bulldogs coach Des Hasler claims to have used the CVR and has contributed the analytics to building his two grand-final winning teams.
But my guess is that Des looks at the data and then massages it with his own twist.
How can you take any NRL Value Rating system seriously that does not have the world’s best player Jonathan Thurston in the top 15 players?
Benji Marshall is arguably the best Kiwi to have ever played the game, yet he also misses out on the top 15.
The CVR system is designed to give coaches the value contribution of each player in each game, based on 50 different aspects of a game that they perceive “valuable”.
I am not privy to the entire list, but based on their top 15 players they have clearly omitted the most value characteristic.
The most valuable analytics that sit in my database includes key influences on the result of a game.
On top of that list are players who have skill and contribute the most to changing the result of a game.
In other words, I am talking about players who are so dominant they change the market and influence millions of dollars changing hands prior to a game if they are in or not.
These would be the guys a recruitment manager would buy first if they had a blank cheque and no salary cap.
There is no question that these players are the key position men who touch the ball the most and normally play halfback, five-eight, hooker or fullback.
To underline my point, Sportsdata rates Paul Gallen the best player in the world.
I rate him the best forward in the world but, despite the fact he contributes over 200 metres in most Shark games Todd Carney is the go-to man and is the club’s most influential on-field player.
This opinion was underlined when Sharks were lost without Carney and Gallen in round 10, when they went down to the Bulldogs 26-6. But they were able to defeat the Storm (12-10) the previous week without Gallen.
Carney has given the Sharks a live chance at the premiership this year.
Sportsdata has three forwards in the top 11 players, Gallen, Corey Parker and James Tamou.
I certainly consider that Corey Parker should be a Maroon, but I have at least five other players in his Broncos team rated more valuable, especially his halfback and general Peter Wallace.
As of 2 June, the top 11 players based on a CVR per game are: Gallen, Greg Inglis, Isaac Luke, Billy Slater, Jarryd Hayne, Parker, Cooper Cronk, Josh Dugan, Ben Barba, Cameron Smith and Tamou.
Here is how I would rank 11 players, based on their ability to influence a game (CVR ranking in brackets):
1. Johnathan Thurston (not in top 15)
2. Cooper Cronk (7th)
3. Cameron Smith (10th)
4. Benji Marshall (not in top 15)
5. Greg Inglis (second)
6. Billy Slater (4th)
7. Daly Cherry-Evans (not in top 15)
8. Robbie Farah (not in top 15)
9. Isaac Luke (3rd)
10. Ben Barba (9th)
11. Brett Stewart (not in top 15)
mushi
Guest
Which is odd given the coach isn’t under the cap you can actually outspend your opponent.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Scott - I'm interested in your sentences below: "The most valuable analytics that sit in my database includes key influences on the result of a game. On top of that list are players who have skill and contribute the most to changing the result of a game. In other words, I am talking about players who are so dominant they change the market and influence millions of dollars changing hands prior to a game if they are in or not." Without giving away trade secrets can you give an indication on how you quantify this influence contribution when compared to more tangible stats like tackles, hit ups, off loads, etc? I think it's key. Darren Lockyer is a great example who rarely set benchmark stats but is probably one of the greatest 'clutch' players in the history of sport.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Patrick, Yep that is when he is fresh and not fumbling. Tim Mannah and Sam Rapira are another 2 who are very quick for big men playing the ball.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
mushi It is totally relevant to what goes in and how it is weighed, but then how it is massaged. The the NRL I dont believe that enough weight is put on the value of a coach. Incredibilly we have 2 SOOrigin coaches who I would not give a first class job to.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Planko If you go to a game, watch him talking to the halfs. He is gifted with a great sense of knowing what to do and where to be but also able to marshall the troops.
Patrick Angel
Roar Guru
Funnily enough, George Rose seems to be able to bounce up in a flash as well.
PLANKO
Guest
Scott that is a scary stat about Brett but he has had very injuries but still an amazing stat ?
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
DJ Yep it is 2 differnt subjectS, on field and off. Thurston clearly wins the on field argument.
Patrick Angel
Roar Guru
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/six-of-the-best-gallen-breaks-the-mould-in-league-of-influential-men-20120128-1qn0s.html Here it is. Got it wrong, he shifts it 6 points but Andrew Johns shifted it 10. Carney is clearly more valuable now, but in last years weak pack he was a one man forward unit.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Patrick, That is why Glenn Lazarus rated so highly as a prop. For a big man he could play the ball so quickly. Petero goes ok.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Patrick It is hard to knock Cam Smith, he is amazing. His game rating was down in Origin I which is not good for NSW as he never goes back to back. With Sonny Bill Willaims not due back till next year, Gallen is the best forward (not counting hookers), but he does not change a market as much as Carney would when they are playing for the Sharks. Clearly the most valuable is going to be the general, and that is why Cronk and Cherry-Evans are so high.
Patrick Angel
Roar Guru
Also, these scores would have to measure average play the ball speed wouldn't they? Possibly the most underrated stat in rl. Imagin getting a squad of all the fastest players of the ball and getting Isaac Luke, Matt Srama, James Roby, et al behind them.
Patrick Angel
Roar Guru
I remember reading an article late last year about Gallen commanding the highest difference in points difference in betting in history (not sure how to put it, not much of a punter). They would change a market by around 10 points depending on whether he played or not (for example vs Cowboys they might be +4.5 with Gallen, -5.5 without). I expect that would have a lot to do with the players playing around him, and this year with more forward grunt in the Sharks pack that would have changed. Building a team from scratch I would have Cameron Smith as no. 1 option, makes half decent forwards look like world beaters with his delivery, 2nd would be Thurston, then I'd go either Luke Lewis as I'm a firm believer in the importance of versatility over the course of a season, or Slater for obvious reasons. Slater would not be rated as highly in my opinion as there are a ludicrous amount of talented fullbacks going around, but less talented halfbacks. I might even throw a cheque at Kieran Foran due to him being a good up and comer.
mushi
Guest
They are much better for advanced statistical metrics, which is what book makers and teams with analytical departments use, but they still keep the rudimentary box score as well just so people can quote irrelevant stats. I do enjoy some of the papers that come from the Sloane sports conference on analytics really does get you looking at things in a different manner and given my stats is only to a university tutor level not some sports think tank it is great to see the concepts I had never considered. But even in the US they still seem to struggle a little bit with football and extricating individual contributions from the team and coach. I do like the TQBR that ESPN were spruiking though last year. I think that type of variation in expected return would be the best basis for leauge statistical analysis
DJ
Guest
Who would command the highest salary on an open market? 1. Slater 2. Smith 3. Inglis 4. Marshall 5. Thurston However, highest salary and does not mean they are the most influential… CEO’s would pay more money for a Slater or a Marshall because of the marketing potential they can bring. Salary and talent (or influence) don’t always go hand in hand…
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
mushi America is much more advanced. Every major sport in the US and priced based on analytics and they are the most accurate in world sport as they hardly move from the time they come out. It is a new breed now, bit sad really.
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
DJ It it my opinion and also the same as recruitment managers, professional punters who I know and work with. So DJ tell me, who do you think should command the highest salary\?
mushi
Guest
Sorry it is the American term for the typical player/team stats that are published for a game. Generally these stats are selected based on how easily they are recorded rather than explanatory power with regards to contribution. I think the same disease has infected league stats.
DJ
Guest
" He also would be sold for the highest price at an open auction with unlimted funds and no cap." this is opinion though... one which i highly disagree with...
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
mushi What is a box score?