When analysing the AFL, others may write about the teams and their performances, but I like numbers. I’m a geek of sorts, with too much time on my hands.
So here are the big three metrics the AFL prides itself on: TV viewing, crowds and memberships. Let’s see how these look half way through 2012.
Match attendances (at round 11):
While this is something of a planned downturn, even so there is room for much improvement. Gold Coast’s crowds are down and GWS crowds aren’t as high as perhaps people would expect. The overall aggregate is up on 2011, but well short of the record, and averages are well down.
At the top sit Collingwood (57,501) and Carlton (49,594) helped by early season blockbusters against traditional foes. Traditional Victorian “big 4” clubs make up the top four, with Richmond (48,724) beating Essendon (46,735) into third spot. Surprisingly, lowly Melbourne (38,519) takes fifth. West Coast (38,407) is the top ranked of the non-Victorian sides.
Richmond are the big movers here, with crowd averages up 6,000 on their 2011 season average. The biggest surprise is Melbourne, up 7,500 over their 2011 average. At the other end of the scale, Sydney is down 6,000, possibly due to renovation work at the SCG, while Gold Coast crowds have dropped 6,000 on last seasons average. Of the Melbourne clubs, North’s crowds are down 2,000, possibly due to shifting a game to Hobart.
In hostile territory, the Lions (20,419) take top spot, followed by the Swans (20,317). GWS (14,939) narrowly beat the Gold Coast (13,296). These will be disappointing for the AFL, however GWS crowds are likely to fall close to expectations at this time, given they’ve played at four different grounds, two of which have a sub 15,000 capacity.
League Aggregate
League 2012 Total: 3,163,135 (96 matches)
League 2011 Total: 3,084,541 (85 matches)
League Record: 3,391,470 (88 matches, 2008)
League five year average: 3,229,280 (445 matches)
League Averages
League 2012 average: 32,949
League 2011 average: 36,289
League record average: 38,539 (2008)
League five year average: 36,284
Top six club averages:
Collingwood 57,501 (down 4,000 on 2011 average)
Carlton 49,541 (down 3,700 on 2011 average)
Richmond 48,724 (UP 6,000 on 2011 average)
Essendon 46,735 (down 2,500 on 2011 average)
Melbourne 38,519 (up 7,500 on 2011 average)
West Coast 38,407 (up 1,000 on 2011 average)
Bottom six Club Averages”
North Melbourne 24,188 (down 3,200 on 2011 average)
Port Adelaide 20,771 (down 1,000 on 2011 average)
Brisbane 20,491 (up 30 on 2011 average)
Sydney 20,317 (down 6,000 on 2011 average)
GWS 14,939 (change not applicable)
Gold Coast 13,296 (down 6,000 on 2011 average)
Memberships
Note: Membership applications close for the year on June 30th. The following data come from official club media reports (websites to 12th June 11pm), Collingwood’s TV program and for Fremantle an article in the West Australian that is now somewhat out of date.
Collingwood recently announced they’d topped 70k, and many other clubs are at record levels of membership. At the expansion clubs (NSW and Queensland), Sydney, Brisbane and Gold Coast remain largely unchanged (pending audit) and GWS memberships may be below expectations at this time.
Top 4 Clubs
Collingwood (over 70,000)
Hawthorn (59,861)
West Coast (56,516)
Richmond (50,496)
Bottom 4 Clubs
Sydney (27,565)
Brisbane (20,501)
Gold Coast (11,130)
GWS (9,476)
The total for the year reported so far: 690,095 (up from 652,127 in 2011). It must be stressed that the 2011 data used is the AFL audited figure that strips thousands of “memberships” down to access only. The final 2012 figure may be reduced substantially. Note: It should be noted that some Richmond supporters are claiming the AFL will count all memberships this year. No one else has confirmed this, and I’ve been unable to find confirmation anywhere.
2012 (2011 Audit)
Adelaide – 46028 (44719)
Brisbane – 20501 (20792)
Carlton – 45282 (43791)
Collingwood – 70,000 (75271)
Essendon – 46450 (42559)
Fremantle – 38000 (42762)
Geelong – 39222 (39343)
Gold Coast – 11130 (11141)
GWS – 9476 (N/A)
Hawthorn – 59861 (53978)
Melbourne – 35090 (36937)
North Melbourne – 33047 (28761)
Port Adelaide – 37279 (32581)
Richmond – 50496 (40184)
St Kilda – 35113 (39276)
Sydney – 27565 (27106)
West Coast – 56516 (43216)
Western Bulldogs – 29039 (29710)
TV Viewing
Total free-to-air viewers to round 11: 27,144,000 (27,717,000 in 2011)
Total Fox viewers to round 11: 18,202,000 (7,103,000 in 2011)
Total viewers to round 11: 45,346,000 (34,820,000 in 2011)
% FTA Viewers: 59.85%
% Fox Viewers: 40.15%
Average FTA viewers per match: 282,750
Average Fox viewers per match: 189,600
Total Melbourne FTA Viewers: 14,667,000 (54%) – up 5.7% on 2011
Total Adelaide FTA Viewers: 4,530,000 (16%) – down 11.5% on 2011
Total Perth FTA Viewers: 4,919,000 (18%) – down 1.9% on 2011
Total Syd/Bris FTA Viewers: 3,028,000 (11%) – down 7.7% on 2011
Increase in FTA metro and Fox viewers in 2012: 10,526,000 (Up 30.2%)
Increase in Fox viewers in 2012: 11,099,000 (up 156.25%)
Decrease in FTA viewers in 2012: 573,000 (down 2%)
Notes:
Regional figures are not included, not because I don’t believe they are relevant but because the data is much harder for me to obtain. Available data is typically a top 20 programs and not necessarily showing data for all matches. I’m unwilling to pay for more information.
Sydney and Brisbane 7mate figures are combined because thats frequently how Mediaweek packages it on Twitter. Moreover, most other outlets don’t list the 7mate markets due to the low numbers.
Further, we recognise that Fox figures from last year do not include Main Event broadcasts from Queensland and NSW, however I believe those figures will have been subsumed this year into Foxfooty subscriptions and digital channel viewing.
Sources
Crowd figures sourced from www.stats.rleague.com
2011 television figures sourced from www.talkingfooty.com and 2012 figures sourced from mediaweek twitter
MGM
Guest
@JVGO "Where is Essendon exactly" Yes what an arrogant and ignorant comment. Just going to take a stab with this question but did you get a discount on your Collingwood membership with that attitude?? I think what you are implying is that Sydney knows nothing of the AFL which to a large degree is true but to say that in reference Sydney supporters is just plain ignorant. I can tell you myself that I have followed footy and supported the Sydney Swans since birth and their are a lot more passionate then myself. We celebrated Plugger's record goal kicking, the '05 premiership and the Brownlows of Goodes and Kelly we had the heart break of '96 and '06. Don't question the knowledge and passion which the supporters have of the game it only makes you seem like an idiot. so Where is Essendon? Not in the 2012 finals and relocating from their windy hill base in Essendon to the new facility at the Airport, so yes they may as well be from Antarctica these days. Regards A New South Welshman
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
Yes, they have "In the Wings" memberships, costing something around $50 per person - and they have over 8,000 of them. They wont be there after the audit.
Brewski
Roar Rookie
As a SCG member this year, you cannot get any additional day passes, that cuts crowd numbers down by quite a few people, but i note for the Sydney Roosters/Manly game additional day passes for members are available. In other years SCG members have been able to purchase additional seats. When the SCG renovations have been completed, and crowd numbers are still down, then you may have a point, as it stands you don't, but i imagine that some other fanciful notion will arise in your brain to explain away bigger crowd numbers.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
It's the West Coast numbers that look the most vulnerable - do they sell memberships to their waiting list? (probably!)
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
we'll know in a few weeks after the AFL does its annual membership audit. Last year some clubs lost 10,000 off their membership numbers
Redb
Roar Guru
Yeah but TC there's a helluva lot of double counting going on ;)
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Hawthorn cracked 60,000 memberships today.
JVGO
Guest
Is that true? Fancy that. But hardly relevant to the issue at hand which is the myth that Sydneysiders love a winner. The hole in the argument is obviously that the Swans have been winning yet their crowds are declining. I thnk you should rather look at who Sydneysiders are winning against for a real insight to their mindset. For instance other teams Sydneysiders may have had an affinity with this week were playing and mostly winning against teams representing Wales, Japan, Queensland, NZ, and oh yes Essendon. Where is Essendon exactly? Is that some sort of airport in north eastern Antarctica. Oh well. Just saying but I think you lot at times need to think more deeply about things.
JamesP
Guest
Game officially sold out with one day to spare. Given this is bigger than the NRLgrand final - it should have sold out a helluva lot sooner. If the ground was MCG sized - there would have been plenty of empty seats.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
JVGO good crowd last night - almost double the total attendance of the last NRL round
JVGO
Guest
SCG capacity is 45,000. Renovations affect 1/4. Current capacity about 34,000. Swans current season average about 20,000, one game rain affected. I don't know about this myth that Sydneysiders love a winner. There were 85,000 out last night in appalling conditions to support a team that hasn't won anything in six years.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
It wont happen. The NRL Commission is pretty much set on keeping the Titans and NRL on the Gold Coast. Bank on it.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Hawthorn are now only 14 away from cracking 60,000 memberships.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
The current attendance average is sitting just under 33k. It would be a great result for the AFL to finish with a 33k average by end of season, having included two new teams from non-heartland areas over the last two seasons. I've mentioned before that in 1924 the VFL had an average of 20k. In 1925, three new teams were admitted at the same time, with the average attendance dropping dramatically, and taking a full 30 years to recover and go beyond 20k (depression and war didn't help either). With upgrades to Kardinia Park and the SCG ready by next season, and then in future seasons, new stadiums being available in Adelaide and Perth, the average attendance will creep back up towards the 36k mark, even if the Suns and Giants stay around half that - and that would be an excellent long term outcome.
Cameron
Guest
I'm not exactly sure what the current capacity of the SCG is with the redevelopments, but while tv ratings are important we shouldn't discount the value of bums on seats at the ground. Not only does it provide atmosphere at the ground but also it provides atmosphere through the tv speakers as well, which adds to more people tuning in.
Hoolifan
Guest
They will have the region to themselves with the Titans about to fall over.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
One thing I've learned over the course of 50 years is that people come and go. That's precisely why all clubs in all sports experience a churn rate in memberships. People's priorities and interests will change many times over a lifetime, for all sorts of valid reasons. Some will come and go a few times over their lifetime, go through periods of intense support punctuated with periods of mild support, or even periods of relatively little interest. At the end of the day, no sporting club can expect anyone to keep pumping their hard earned into the club forever and ever for what is very much an item of discretionary spending. Be thankful for whatever you have. Life goes on.
JamesP
Guest
I'd have also thought GWS would have at least got to 10,000 members. Gold Coast has shown that the novelty wears off after a year so they had better start winning!
JamesP
Guest
This will be interesting. The AFL experimented with a Friday night game in Sydney (vs Carlton) last year - but from memory it was a washout and up against the royal wedding. A rain free night would suggest it is well attended - the real numbers are in the TV ratings. 30k at the ground and 100k on Sydney FTA (7 mate) would be a success - on top of the Foxtel figures.
Cameron
Guest
As people grow older, they have a tendency to say "'it's not the same as it used to be." Football is no different Poeple tend to want to recapture their youth so it is no surprise people of an older generation will say things such as this. No doubt younger football fans today will in years to come say to themselves and their old mates "rememer when you had those classic midfielders like Judd and Ablett running around, you just don't see players of that kind of class anymore" or "The rules were alot more amenable to a free flowing game in our day, these days it is just too stop start".