Super Rugby form is not usually a good guide to Test Rugby form. However, while we can look back to the June internationals, trying to identify clues from Super Rugby is probably our best current guide to the coming international season.
The poor performances of the Australian Super sides see most people writing off the chances of the Wallabies in the upcoming Rugby Championship.
I think based on form the All Blacks and Springboks are correctly seen as the sides most likely to win the Championship but there are opportunities for Australia if they can seize them.
If Australia is to be successful in their campaign, I think they will need to select teams specifically to beat their opponents.
Ideally Australia would have its own brand of rugby and implement it without fear or favour of the opposition but given our current position, I think we do need to select horses for courses.
There are a few games from this Super season which I think Deans should be looking at. Let’s review the performances of the Aussie sides against South Africa first.
The key games that hold positives for Australia were the Waratahs beating the Sharks and the narrow losses by the Waratahs and Rebels to the Bulls.
The ones that should hold warnings on the negatives are the Sharks elimination of the Reds in the finals, the Stormers comfortably controlling the Waratahs and the large lead held by the Bulls over the Brumbies before some late scores added respectability.
The Waratahs and Rebels were two of the weaker performers from Australia but managed respectable performances against strong South African sides, with one win and two close losses. All three of these games were in Australia so they must be tempered, but I think it is notable that these two sides have size and power in their tight five compared to the other Aussie sides.
The locks, in particular Sitaleki Timani, Kane Douglas and Caderyn Neville are all 120kg plus. In the Rebels match, along with Hugh Pyle, they had a third second rower Luke Jones playing at blindside.
If Australia purely try to match the size and dynamism of the South Africans they will fail, however they will have to go some way to countering fire with fire. A strong set piece and an ability to contest the breakdown with similar numbers will be key.
The Sharks highlighted this by only needing to commit two or three men to dominate the breakdown against the Reds. The Reds consistently put more men into the rucks and still couldn’t guarantee possession and wound up short in defence.
Similarly, when playing well, the Bulls are able to control the breakdowns with few men, stand large forwards out in the line to hit up and gain quick forward momentum. Matching these guys will likely require a full game from Sharpe with a high intensity match fairly evenly split between Sitaleki Timani and Kane Douglas.
A few Roarers have expressed disappointment that Caderyn Neville was the last second rower sent home. He still needs to fine tune his breakdown work and control his body height better.
Timani needs to keep his feet better, stop flopping and not get caught lounging in the backs.
Douglas in the last two weeks of the Super tournament started to show glimpses of what he is capable and I think with the injury to Horwill will be key this season.
The New Zealand matches that gave us insight in how to combat the All Blacks would be the Reds defeat of the Chiefs, the Brumbies defeat of the Hurricanes along with the near miss by the Reds against the Crusaders.
The Waratahs v Hurricanes, Waratahs v Highlanders and Brumbies v Blues were blue prints in how to lose to the New Zealand sides.
The matches where Australian sides competed well by either beating or pushing in form Kiwi opposition saw great industry at the breakdown. This was less about having one or two powerful players controlling a space and more about getting numbers to the contact zone for long periods of time.
The games the Aussie sides lost badly really highlighted packs that were either unable to get those numbers in the contest or didn’t turn up with the right mentality to win.
The All Blacks have dominated for so long that there is a self-imposed pressure on Australian sides when they face them. Quade Cooper’s implosion at the World Cup is probably the most spectacular example of this.
However Australian sides have shown in glimpses during the season that they can compete. The Reds proved it when winning the Super competition last year and the Wallabies confirmed it in Suncorp when claiming the last Tri-Nations trophy.
Sporadic performances will not be enough though and that hardnosed aggression and constant work as displayed in the positive performances I mention above will be key if the Wallabies are to have a chance at winning.
In these games I think Rob Simmons will have to come into the second row, Dave Dennis may be an additional lock reserve. Certainly playing both of Timani and Douglas in these games looks likely to be a recipe for loss and at most, only one should be selected.
It is against New Zealand that Greg Holmes’s omission from the squad is likely to be most detrimental. The absence of Brad Thorn has reduced the scrum power of Owen Franks. Holmes is in good enough form to compete effectively at the scrum against this opposition. His work around the ground is a cut above Robinson’s at the moment and should be recognised.
James Slipper would be my choice at reserve prop against all opposition in this tournament. I’d pick Robinson to start against the Springboks and Argentina, while picking Holmes to start against New Zealand. With the injuries at tighthead out there, Sekope Kepu will have to play a lot of minutes in this tournament.
As Argentina are the side Australia know the least about, they will be the team the Wallabies will have to pick their all-around side against. I’ll be interested to see which pack it looks more like. My hope that it is the heavier pack that can match the Sprinboks but just having done a bit more fitness than it has lately.
There are plenty of other articles out there focussed on who the back line selections should be so I’ll let those speak for themselves.
I think we’ll need to pick slightly different packs to combat specific opponents in this tournament. I doubt Robbie Deans agrees with me but I will certainly be watching these battles with interest. What do you think?
ANON69
Guest
FOS you are correct, by the time RC ends, wallabies will be 5th or 6th in the world.
formeropenside
Guest
There is really a bee's dick between Moore and TPN when both are in form - but TPN seems more injury prone and was poor at the RWC when playing sore. TPN's lineout throwing is also not as good as Moore's, but he offers more of a running game, while Moore is better in tight work (and will be run down from behind if he has more than 10m to run). Personally, I'd lean toward starting Moore as a rule, but you can't be too upset with TPN getting the nod - its a rational decision you can understand, unlike many Deans choices.
Markus
Guest
Beast is a strong guy with a poor scrummaging technique. He got the wood over the ref in the key 2009 Lions match which made him appear dominant. His biggest attribute is his workrate. Jannie du Plessis is nothing more than adequate, the best of an average group. For a country who regularly talk of all their depth, SA has no more quality THPs than Australia.
jeznez
Roar Guru
KP, I'd still include the guy in my 22, but since he always seems to be in trouble I'd reduce his workload and have our other very good hooker start. At least we agree on the two hookers that should be in the squad and happily Dean's does as well. Not like other positions where guys who should be in the 15 aren't even in the squad of 30.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Incomprehensible to me starting Moore over TPN after TPN's tremendous, outstanding Welsh series (aside from the throwing at which Moore isn't great). Completely incomprehensible.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Look I never said the Wallabies front row could get the better of the AB front row, only that they could contain them and didn't need to worry too much about it.
Ben S
Roar Guru
* Adam Jones has already taken Mtawarira to the cleaners on a number of occasions, and Dan Cole gave him a touch up recently too. * Owen Franks and Ben Franks got stuffed by Cian Healy recently. * Gethin Jenkins isn't a notoriously good scrummager.
Kuruki
Roar Guru
The All Blacks have had a few hiccups at scrum time over the years but most of the time they rectify it during the game. The irish got on top of them recently for a period but that was after the pack became unsettled with forced changes. A starting tight five of O Franks Hore Woodcock Rettalick Whitelock will have parity with everyone in the RC. And at the end of the day, all you really need is to secure your own ball. I can't recall Wales ever dominating our scrum for an extended period. Most teams can get a good hit now and then and dominate a few scrums but we always get our fair share on the hit aswell.
Deez
Roar Rookie
Fair call. I thought it unlucky for Steve Moore to get benched as he's playing about as well as he has since leaving the Reds, but TPN has a good power game and the combo w Robinson and Kepu probably also puts him ahead for now. In the scrum though the front row can only be as good as the second row drive them to be. And there have always been question marks over Sharpie and Simmons (the likely starting pair) in the scrum. Any thoughts on whether Douglas/Timani offer enough more to warrant a start? I'm not a lock forward but it strikes me that the 120kg+ second rowers should through sheer weight and strength (hopefully!) have better attributes for powering up the scrum.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Sam, I think the Wallabies should have Sharpe, Higginbotham and Dennis as recognised lineout exponents in the starting pack. Then depending who we see of Timani, Douglas or Simmons will dictate the quality the set piece with as you say above Timani helping the tight strength of the scrum and Simmons helping the lineout. Douglas definitely improved his lineout work over the course of the season and apparently they have had him training on calling the defensive lineouts. Will be a great string to his bow if he can add aerial work to his game. Biggest problem with the Wallabies lineout is not the jumpers so much as the throwers. Both Moore and TPN featured on the inaccurate list much more than you would like for an international rake.
jeznez
Roar Guru
I rather hope for the forwards at least that it is 'No Frills'.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Deez, given they are ignoring Holmes. I'd have the Waratahs front row starting with Slipper and Moore on the bench. It is what Robbie did against Wales in June and I think he'll be crossing his fingers and hoping it works out again. If I was picking the team from scratch I'd have Holmes at LHP, Moore and Kepu as the starters with Slipper and TPN on the bench. Robinson needs to do the work to earn his spot back, if he isn't starting then the combination with TPN is less important and Polota-Nau may be one of my favourite players but he is always injured lately and I'd reduce the workload on him for now.
jeznez
Roar Guru
I think the scrum battle should be pretty even on the weekend if we select from Robinson, Holmes, Slipper and Kepu. That is even accounting for the injury to Palmer which weakens the THP ranks. Biggest risk for mine is that Ben Alexander is likely to get selected. He hasn't had a good scrummaging performance since 2009 and has shown little indication that he is about to snap out of it shortly. Mike Cron is too good a scrum coach not to get improvement out of the All Blacks and Romano/Whitelock definitely came on under Dave Hewett's tutelage during the Super Season. I think the All Blacks will be better now than they were in June - to be fair if they want to continue the dominance they have had over Australia at scrum time they will need to be.
jeznez
Roar Guru
UA, the bizarre thing there is that the same players who won that game have failed in others. Consistency is non-existent. Better competition for places will get rid of complacency and ensure that only the blokes ready to put it all on the line make the team. But that is a whole other article. Given the cattle we have I just think we need to tweak the team selections - at least in the forward pack depending on our opposition.
jeznez
Roar Guru
The only time we've seen Slipper at LHP lately was the Scotland game - he was ok in that match but not great. No surprise given the limited amount of game time he has had on that side of the scrum. Given the squad and the absence of Greg Holmes, I certainly prefer seeing Slipper as one of the three props in the match day 22 rather than Ben Alexander.
Sam Taulelei
Roar Guru
I agree to an extent with what KPM is saying here. I wouldn't overestimate the scrummaging threat from NZ either but it's not because I think that we're dramatically underpowered since Thorn's departure or that the Wallabies will be vastly different and improved since they played Wales. Scrums as one of two setpieces are important to any side to establish a steady platform where you can dictate territory and exert pressure to force a penalty or score a try. But with the average number of scrums decreasing in rugby, opportunities to exert dominance are usually restricted to the opposition feed and position on the field as the ball is in general play more often than it used to be. I've noticed over the years under Deans coaching that in the buildup to a Bledisloe Cup match there are public statements about areas they're going to concentrate on eg. breakdown, scrummaging, playing with width but the match plays out differently to what they expected because the opposition attack them somewhere else. The success of the All Blacks lineout against Ireland where they didn't lose a single throw all series has gone largely unheralded and unnoticed by many. However in light of the Wallabies continuing lineout woes, I'd expect the All Blacks to attack them more in that area of the game. Two of the best setpiece tries scored at the world cup by the All Blacks came off lineouts, Cory Jane against France in their pool match and Tony Woodcock in the final. I've noticed in the Super 15 this year that Kiwi teams were trying more set moves off attacking lineouts reflecting their increased confidence in the consistency and quality of lineouts, which has been an achilles heel for a long time. NZ can have as many as four recognised lineout targets going into Sydney's test, for the Wallabies I can only think of Sharpe and Higginbotham depending on what locking and loose forward combination they select. Timani is better as a tight forward than a lineout option, Simmons is better as a lineout option than a tight forward, Douglas is improving. Pocock is too short and you want him involved in the play not taken out of it, Samo if selected is a good lineout option, not sure about Schatz. Whitelock, Romano and Retallick don't have the experience of their predecessors, but they do all possess the core skills and provide an extra bonus with their mobility in general play.
Deez
Guest
Jeznez - great article. I too am still dumfounded by Deans not going for Greg Holmes - seems Deans and the Wallabies selectors don't like picking "rookies" (including guys like Holmes who played a handful of games for the WBs a decade ago) over about 26 years old (minus a few exceptions, like Samo). Makes some sense for backs, where you might hit your physical peak around mid twenties, but I think it's a different story with locks and props - I reckon they hit their prime around ~28-32. Am disappointed for Holmes (29) - thought he had a great season for the Reds. But now what's done is done - Holmes doesn't look to feature in this year's TRC. So who would you throw in the fire as LHP against the ABs? Slipper, Robinson or Alexander?
Riccardo
Guest
OK, I'll bite. Look KPM, I accept that the Northerners traditionally target set-piece over work rate around the paddock but I still find your statement “I wouldn’t overestimate the All Black scrummaging threat: they are a long way down from Wales as a scrummaging unit” off the mark. BTW, "scrummaging unit" would suggest you have addressed the pack. Jenkins and Jones are stalwarts but are they a match for Du Plessis and Beast? Or Woody and Owen Franks/Charles Faumuina?The Pumas' front men will be up for that contest too. I'm sorry but I don't see any of these combinations, let alone their respective packs, being easily bested by the Welsh at set piece. The SANZAR teams have even addressed their line-outs. The All Blacks have certainly targeted this area for improvement and were much improved against the Irish in this repsect. Where we definitely agree is the other string to their bow; the loose stuff. Pick and go. Bone crunching defence. It is the varying combination of their roles, set-piece and loose, that sets the platform for the showy stuff out back. That said though Woody is upset if he doesn't get to score the odd try you know!
formeropenside
Guest
I will go out on a limb and say that whoever is in the Aussie front row, we will not be a better scrummaging unit that the AB's - we may have the odd good scrum, but the AB's will have more. In the last 5 years, I have not seen any scrum consistently better the AB's over the course of the game. I hear Italy gave them a fright a few years back, and the French had them on skates once in the RWC Final, but I can't see the AB's giving up scrum dominance in a hurry.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
A Bedeian I didn't say anything like that: I just said that in the scrums, only the scrums, the AB scummaging please note ONLY scrummaging would not be as much of a threat as Wales. It seems others misinterpreted this too.