Is there a good side to sports betting?

By The Crowd / Roar Guru

Hayley Byrnes recently wrote a stunningly heart-wrenching article here on The Roar which highlighted the terrible dangers of addictive gambling. I’d like to discuss potentially ‘smart’ sports punting.

Are there smart investors out there who punt, rather than invest on the stockmarket/property?

I have a certain fascination with betting. I’m a very keen horse racing punter and know most sports well enough to know who should win on any one day. There is definitely money to be made. There’s definitely money to be lost.

My own experience tells me that there’s not very many good bets that can be made without serious dedication and study.

I’m sure there are great bets each week, but knowing what they are without being seriously dedicated is difficult.

I believe there are really only a small number of terrific bets possible in a month.

This is because getting ahead often requires knowledge that comes from being in the game for a long time, or seeing something that few others can see.

Thinking the Swans are a good thing this week is hardly ever one of those great bets. Emotion combined with correlating ‘facts’ without causation are often problems.

Here’s an example of a very good bet.

Commanding Jewel paid $2 on the NSW TAB at R1 at Mooney Valley over the weekend.

To know she was a good bet with great odds would be to know she is Atlantic Jewel’s three-quarter sister.

You’d need to know her sire Commands produces good wet track horses and the soft track would be somewhat advantageous.

You’d need to know that she won easily at Swan Hill in a maiden over 900m and was definitely looking for a longer distance.

You’d also preferred to have known, should you be betting, that the second-place getter behind her at Swan Hill won a nice maiden at Mildura, further franking the form.

Of course, you can always look silly when it goes wrong – but that is how I’d define a great bet (with the benefit of hindsight).

There’s really a few games being played by gamblers – be they profilic, idiotic or more considered – the long game, the short game and the dumb game.

The long game involves playing odds which mathematically make sense. If you get 100 opportunities, and the odds stack in your favour (eg 100/1 odds or better), you will eventually win. You just need to be able to have the bankroll to survive 99 losses. Or more.

It’s like playing smart poker – you play the 55% hand 100% of the time. You won’t always win, but the theory says you’ll be ahead if you play enough hands. It’s a grind.

The short game involves taking what’s available. Take Frankel for example.

At $1.20 to win last start, it was one of the best bets in 2012. He wasn’t going to be beaten, if you knew enough, or knew someone who had studied. But how many people closely follow European gallops in Australia? I know two. One is a writer here on The Roar, Justin Cinque.

The dumb game involves betting on the colourful options including line betting, multi-bets and betting on what appears to be a good thing in questionable circumstances, as well as plonking down money on colours, numbers, or good names. Most of these devices are designed to tempt you without being good investments.

(There’s nothing wrong with putting $5 on a nice looking horse when at the track having a drink, or your favourite team before heading to the game. The sense of thrill is a nice buzz. That’s sort of dumb, but that’s not deep involvement)

It’s betting too much. It’s betting for the sake of a thrill. It’s betting to make an obscure MLB game more interesting. It’s betting on Netball without knowing your BoP-Magic from your NSW Swifts.

Line betting is something I classify as too risky without considerable study. Serious punters often use it to their advantage. Good luck to them.

Multi-bets offer gambling agencies huge advantages. There’s really no sense in putting on a multi-bet unless you’re offered a big percentage boost or a moneyback offer, etc. Still, putting $1 on a multi paying $1000 if AC Milan win by 2+, tied in with Federer winning the US Open plus an NFL team making the finals can be fun – but it’s fun only, not smart betting.

Over to you, Roarers. There are stories of addiction and heartbreak, but what about players who win? And not the story of picking the winner of the Melbourne Cup in a sweep – but the serious punters?

The Crowd Says:

2012-09-01T10:38:32+00:00

Bazzio

Roar Guru


Any gambler will tell you ~ "It's a mug's game."

2012-08-30T06:44:13+00:00

mushi

Guest


I do have a big problem with people representing that this is like investing shares or property. In terms of there is risks associated – yes but this is not an investment in a share of future cash flows this is simply a wager. The closest you could possibly draw it back to is trading of CFDs which is very different to investing in financial securities. Yes some people make money in trading, I’d bet it is far less than those who make money in trading financial securities.

2012-08-30T06:38:17+00:00

mushi

Guest


This makes the shire look like a news program. First it cripples our friend logic. Gambling creates jobs. So does building a bridge to nowhere. That doesn’t mean it has anything to do with long term prosperity. Then it toys with it. Rich people create jobs. Actually not in a relative sense. The poor will typically save at a lower rate than the rich, well at least the rich that stay rich. Distribution of wealth through industries that are based more on capital outlay than production tend to benefit a narrower part of the economy, having a limited impact on the “median” person and a big one on the “mean”. Then it just brutally dismembers it. Gambling makes revenue which is then used for essential services so gambling does more good than harm. Logic is begging to be put down at this point as without quantifying how much harm and how much benefit is derived no sane and rational person can say unequivocally it does one more than the other.

2012-08-30T03:05:27+00:00

Pillock

Roar Rookie


One of the good things about sports betting is the billion $ the NRL got from Channel 9. A fair chunk of that billion will come from Sports Bet, Tom Waterhouse etc in the form of advertising.

2012-08-29T18:14:07+00:00

peeeko

Roar Guru


exactly

2012-08-29T13:27:13+00:00

Vic

Guest


The goodside is you can make good money if you know who is taking a dive. We have already had a number of rigged NRL games, just wondering when AFL's first questionable match will surface?

2012-08-29T10:21:21+00:00

Chris

Guest


It's possible (not probable) to make money on sports betting as long as you follow two rules: No Horses, EVER. No Dogs, EVER. and NEVER, EVER, EVER make a bet on your favorite team.

2012-08-29T10:17:56+00:00

sheek

Guest


Terrific article. I'm a mug punter. Fortunately I don't bet often. And therefore I don't lose much! Funny thing John, when I first started following horse racing as a kid, I used to tip anything combining Bart Cummings-Roy Higgins or Tommy Smith-George Moore (probably like a lot of other people besides). Because they won so often together I thought I was a genius. Of course, I only realised later that I had come into racing at the peak of those two great combos (mid 1960s to early 1970s).

2012-08-29T06:36:14+00:00

Johnno

Guest


bob so what do you prefer do you want sport to go bcd to more amateur days or cut wages. And what will that equal lower standard of play.

2012-08-29T05:19:45+00:00

josh

Guest


Best bet I made was back in the Brisbane Lions glory days, i made an exotic bet in a game versus Collingwood. I had at the end of each quarter this combo Coll-Coll-Coll-Bris. It was exciting cause Collingwood where ahead by 1pt at half time, then Brisbane eventually won. I also tipped Gold Coast to beat Port last year and I backed GWS to beat Port too. Never backed them though. Hindisght wonderful thing.

2012-08-29T05:09:21+00:00

TheGenuineTailender

Roar Guru


I have a mate who is a great league tipper. He'll get 1 if not 2 full rounds each season. We thought about putting a 10 multi on the full round every round and if 1 or 2 come through, he'd be up every single year. $260 investment for about a $1100 return (averaging the odds at about a $1.80 favourite) But in the end we thought better of it. Would have been a bit of fun though, it's only $10 a week... Thoughts roarers?

2012-08-29T03:06:18+00:00

B.A Sports


Johnno by that argument, Smoking is good. It creates jobs, pays significant taxes to the government for essential services etc... Sports betting is fine, the multitude of exotics which are designed to look exciting and attract the ill-informed gambler are not. The constant on-air advertising during games is infuriating, but i'm not sure non gamblers or fringe gamblers actually act on it because it requires one ot have phone accounts etc (usually) so I am not sure if that is a bad thing - from a social pespective, just annoying.

2012-08-29T02:07:43+00:00

JH

Guest


I don't bet. I occasionally put money on Bangladesh in the cricket because I get good odds and they have been known to cause a few upsets. But by occasionally I meant once every 2-3 years. I stupidly put a large bet on QLD to win Origin 2-1 which I got a rather handy return on. Won't do it again though, I almost lost it. What I do do though is keep odds of every AFL and NRL match, record my tips and work out what I would have earnt/lost had I bet $1 on each game. Stats so far this year for a $1 bet : NRL: +$2.50 AFL: -$8.15 Before this year, I always gained money on the AFL and lost on the NRL. Strange I have somehow reversed it especially as I haven't followed league at all this year

2012-08-29T00:43:54+00:00

HardcorePrawn

Roar Guru


"I’m a very keen horse racing punter and know most sports well enough to know who should win on any one day" I've lost count of the amount of times I've heard similar from mates who have lost bucketloads on horses, football, footy etc. It's a dangerous game, and the first step to losing the money for the weekly shop, or the kids' school trip is deluding yourself into thinking you know exactly who is going to win. I used to work with a guy who studied the horses religiously, applied some bizarre system of his own making to races, claimed to only gamble with what he could afford to lose, but would often turn up at the office having slept in his car after his wife had thrown him out for losing the week's house-keeping. The only people that consistently win big from gambling are the bookies. That Tom Waterhouse doesn't look as if he's short of cash does he?

2012-08-29T00:03:51+00:00

adamg

Guest


The only acceptable form of gambling in my opinion is bets between mates. People that think they can win long term against bookies or billion dollar organizations with entire departments of psychological manipulators are naive. The author is a classic example of a sucker, someone that thinks they can win by betting 'smart'.

2012-08-28T23:12:23+00:00

JazzyJase

Roar Pro


Mugs game

2012-08-28T23:01:05+00:00

Johnno

Guest


-The gambling in industry and sports betting creates jobs. All the computers, and software that need to be bought and developed create jobs, truck drivers, to delver electronics and computers. -The owners who get rich rich people create jobs, as they put money in the bank to be lent out, by investment properties and sports crs, so real estate agents and car salmon get jobs. Casinos create massive amounts of employment so i say gambling is good plus the revenue that goes to government ot pay for hospitals,education,road,infrastructure like airports and train stations, so yes gambling does more good for society than harm. And also helps pay the bills in sports for our top athletes wages.

2012-08-28T20:29:37+00:00

Matt

Guest


The storm used to be free money...

2012-08-28T19:45:18+00:00

Captain Kickass

Guest


It's essentially about knowing yourself and your limits. I always, always, always, stick to a budget. I'm confident betting on a few sports, and stick to those only. For me, the thrill in the science of it all. Especially with horse-racing. Form, tracks, breeding, weights, times, trainers, jockeys ... to receive a financial reward for being right when it comes to correctly identifying a winning opportunity, is very satisfying. The cash at the end is the icing on the cake that often started cooking days (or weeks) ago. It's rare I spend more than $50 a fortnight on it all. It's not unusual for me to withdraw $500 periodically to go buy life's nicer things. This way, the bills still get paid, the kids still get fed, and the wife is still sharing a bed with me. In the eyes of seasoned punters I'm sure they'll contend my methods are all wrong, and I could increase profitability by applying x,y and z .... but for me punting on the weekend is a hobby best shared with friends. And compared to pokies, provides a fairer chance of a return by virtue of the fact you can make your own informed choice(s).

2012-08-28T17:14:08+00:00

Bob Anderson

Guest


Contract killing creates jobs too. Is that ok too? Just because something creates jobs or makes money for somebody somewhere doesn't mean its a good thing. As for the high player wages, that's exactly what's taken the idealism out of sports. Most of today's professional athletes are just sports whores.

More Comments on The Roar

Read more at The Roar