The era of Geelong dominance is over. The greatest team of all is officially no longer, and the obituaries are being written.
It was not meant to be this way.
Most had the Cats pencilled in for a classic preliminary final match-up against the Hawks and, if they could only extend the Kennett Curse for one more battle, yet another grand final berth would be theirs.
But sport seldom plays out as predicted, and Fremantle weren’t particularly keen for that version of events.
After their impressive display against Sydney in round 23, finishing their season having won six of the previous seven, Geelong were supposed to be a force to be reckoned with in this year’s finals series.
The ‘wildcard’. The ‘dangerous floater’. Potentially the second best in it behind Hawthorn.
Perhaps the players had been reading their own press. Maybe sock drawers full of premiership medallions made them feel above the inconvenience of an elimination final. At minimum, their minds were already on the following week.
The Dockers were quite simply more desperate from the first bounce. Whenever a loose ball was there to be won, invariably a purple jumper was the first one over it.
The Cats were playing with the air of a team expecting to get the win without putting in the required effort.
But their hubris was unfounded, based purely on season 2012. Frankly, they hadn’t played well all year, particularly in an ugly first half of the season. They won games alright, mainly through pure will and the opposition freezing at crucial moments. A 7-5 win-loss ratio after 12 matches flattered, and should arguably have been 4-8.
While they did get going in the second half of the year, it was still 10-15 minute periods of dominance that was doing it, not comprehensive four quarter efforts.
Their defeat of the Swans in the last round was their best performance, but a week earlier they couldn’t have been less impressive in accounting for the Western Bulldogs. A six goal victory over the Dogs was the equivalent of a five goal loss to a top eight side.
But the pundits weren’t having it. Experts were falling over themselves to declare that Geelong could win the premiership in 2012. This was an ‘even year’, which was perfect for the champion side to make a run from outside the top four.
However, they weren’t using their eyes. This was no longer a champion side. Just a good to very good team with a host of champions, many of whom were in decline.
This is not to criticise, merely the way of sport. The combination of age and so many gruelling finals campaigns take their toll, with the September games themselves over so many years totalling an entire season’s worth.
Of the proven Cat players, few enhanced their reputations this year. Through coaching structure, or just diminished ability, Jimmy Bartel was poor even though his tackle rate was high, Paul Chapman had more games with less influence than before, despite a late season resurgence, and James Podsiadly is a huge concern looking to next year, already looking slower than a wet week.
Joel Corey wasn’t as prolific, Corey Enright was up-and-down, and Matthew Scarlett had one eye on the end of a storied career.
Combine all of this with Gary Ablett leaving at the end of 2010, along with the hardest of hard men, Max Rooke, and the 2011 exit of four All-Australians in Cameron Ling, Brad Ottens, Cameron Mooney and Darren Milburn, and it’s no disgrace for Geelong to have finished where they have.
Of course, none of this is to deride a once mighty side. Geelong’s reign at, or near, the top had lasted longer than the previous champion teams of the modern game.
Including 2004, when the Cats were two goals from a grand final, it’s been nine years of largely excellent football, bar the 2006 train wreck that merely fuelled the greatness to come.
Eight September campaigns. 22 finals. Six preliminary finals. Four grand finals. Three premierships.
As a Richmond supporter who has seen six finals for only two wins in the last 30 years, bitter is the envy I feel for this run of sustained success.
But what does the future hold?
The Sydney template is the one that Geelong will be following. The Swans have only missed the finals once since their 2005 flag, and are probably going to be playing off for the main prize again this year.
The next wave of Geelong youth has shown glimpses this season, and under the strong leadership of 24 year old Joel Selwood, they’ll be sure to prosper by learning the right disciplines.
Mitch Duncan played a pivotal role off the bench in last year’s grand final, looking the goods from his first game, Allen Christensen is a jet that oozes talent, and Steven Motlop could be anything.
Jordan Murdoch caught the eye late in the season, Billie Smedts can fill a role anywhere on the ground, and Cameron Guthrie looks to have a bright future with sure hands below his knees.
Tom Hawkins has become the most powerful forward in the game, and will lead the big man brigade down at Corio Bay for years to come. In that group will be Trent West, Nathan Vardy, Josh Walker and Mitch Brown, all of whom have played less than 75 matches between them.
So next year will see the Cats land a few blows, but lose more games they are expected to win as they hang around the middle part of the ladder. They may or may not make finals, but the end result will be immaterial. The year after that will see another drop as more and more fresh blood is introduced and the young side learns to gel together.
But watch for the rise in 2015, when finals will be on the cards once more.
This era of dominance for the Geelong Football Club might be over, but the next one may not be too far away.
jonty
Guest
haha, this couldn't be more wrong. After 7 games in 2013 Geelong are the only undefeated team and have still got 7 games at simonds stadium in the bag and a realitively easy run into the finals
petrerB
Guest
Wow what a complete dud prediction. With the draw for the balance of 2013 the cats will definitely make the finals.
Harley
Guest
Boy hasn't this prediction turned out wrong thus far. Will have to see just how good the cats are this weekend with the Dons. Still far from era over.
Me too
Guest
Pretty much agreed with the artcle - it was apparent most of the season geelong were putting in minimum effort. it cost them a top four and any realistic flag hope. seemed their season mirrored their games - lackadasical early, then a strong finish. but in finals you need four quarter efforts. freo played finals footy from the get go and geelong were always unlikely to pull back such a lead. As for greatest team in the modern era - if that means the afl era, then certainly. the lions were a very, very good team, but the quality of finals opponent was not on the same level, the quality of their best football was not on the same level. geelong beat a saints team in 2009 that played footy better than any i've ever seen, bar one - their victor. the pies of 2010 met or even exceeded that level. the 2011 version that lost to geelong would've beaten almost any past premier. the lions coudn't even win a minor premiership. they were good, but benefitted from the weakness of the game over that period. look at total percentage of games won and theirs no contest. watch them both at their best.
Brewski
Guest
@ Strummer and Ian W, if we go all the way back to the 1890's and the WA goldrush, it is said that the Kalgoolie gold fields football comp was as strong or stronger than the VFA/VFL. There was a huge movement of men and miners from Victoria to WA, including of course footballers, and because of the gold and then money involved, other big Melbourne VFA/VFL footballers were offered big money to come out to the goldfields. So whilst Victoria has long raped and pillaged footballers from the West (and i mean that in the nicest way possible LOL), it has also gone the other way as well. But the reality is that usually the best want to test themselves in the best available comp, so going to Victoria is quite natural.
Strummer Jones
Guest
Ian, I think your comment may be factually incorrect. A small handful of SA players went pre-1983 yes, but quite a few Victorians went to SA (and WA I presume) as well. By about 1983 the flood gates opened, but to say the best SA players went to Vic and only some stayed before this time is not correct.
Justin Curran
Roar Rookie
Have we already forgotten that Geelong won the premiership last year after being told their 'era' was over after that thumping in the preliminary final in 2010? I think we can only truly make that call after a couple of years of persistent decline. I do agree that they are the greatest side of the modern era. They have had a longer period of sustained success. Interesting argument though and a lot of valid points have been made. That's just my opinion.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Deep Thinker, No. They didnt. The best of WA and SA have been going to Victoria since the 1920s at least (the "Swans" nickname came from that). Yes, some stayed home - but most didnt. Oh, and that Hawthorn side had the best Australian Rules footballer that Queensland has ever produced in it.
Deep Thinker
Guest
Fair point, but most WA and SA players (and I'm guessing NT players) stayed in the WAFL and SANFL, and there has since been growth in Qld, NSW and ACT. Perhaps this can be a topic for Cam to address in his next article - although, I suspect that I will disagree with him.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Yes Hawker and those Taswegians and a stray Queenslander called Dunstall. However, clearly the greatest team was North Melbourne 1974-78. 6 consecutive GFs for 2W, 1D, 3L. Underdogs the whole time. Damn near snuck into the '79 GF for good measure. The only difference between now and then is the emergence of fully professional footballers and interstate matches. All things being equal era face offs are absolutely legimate.
hawker
Guest
standard wasn't as good? I would argue that the talent is spread thinner over 18 teams than 12 teams in the 80's. The best WA and SA players still made their way to the VFL.
Macca Clone
Roar Rookie
I'm glad you are a big fan of lard and sugar. Very healthy brain food ;-)
Deep Thinker
Guest
Hawks were no doubt the best and most dominant in the VFL era, but that was before WA and SA teams entered the fray, so the standard wasn't as good and they never travelled. Still - great effort to make 7 in a row.
Magpie Lark
Guest
9 YEARS OF UTTER DOMINANCE OVER GREAT COMPETITION. If you use logic rather than personal bias, unfortunately Hawthorn easily accounts for both Brisbane and Geelong. Its only that Geelong is currently on our minds that people even contemplate saying Geelong. In 20 years time Hawthorns will stand out even further. 7 straight Grand Final Appearances from: 1983–1989 with Premierships won in 83 86 88 89 91 (Thats five)!
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
The Geelong side of the 2000s never played at the level of the Geelong side of the 1980s, either. But only one of those sides got a flag.
Brian
Guest
Well the 99-04 Lions got 3 Flags 1 Runner-Up 1 Prelim 1 Semi The 07-12 Cats got 3 Flags 1 Runner-Up 1 Prelim 1 Elimination So Brisbane were better simple!
EddyJ
Guest
The chances of the Swans winning this year are not as good as Hawthorn's, but to say that they can't win at all is a bit slack for a sports writer. I'm hoping that they do win (and beat someone else other than Hawthorn on the day) so I can see you wipe the egg off your forehead. The Swan's chances have improved since their win against Adelaide on Saturday – no game next weekend and, if they win their preliminary final, they will get an extra day off compare to their opponent (likely to be Hawthorn – in fact, an 87.5 per cent chance that it will be Hawthorn v Sydney on the day – 21 out of 24 preliminaries since 2000 have been won by the teams that have had the week off). In sport, you can never say never. Things can always stuff up for the favourite, and an underdog can always have their day. Remember 2008? Geelong only lost one game for year, but then were outwitted on grand final day by the Hawks. If not for a funny bounce, St Kilda would have been premiers in 2010 – or if not for a Matthew Scarlett toe poke, would have been premiers in 2009. Weird stuff can happen in finals and it's all about inches. I will admit that Hawthorn are pretty close to a perfect team and very skillful, but the Swans and Hawks have had similar trajectories through the year. What if Buddy Franklin goes down in the first five minutes on grand final day? Or Cyril pulls a hamstring? Or if Hawthorn lose their radar, in the same way as Geelong did in 2008? Or if they are just outsmarted by the Swans (or any other team). Or, like Geelong against Fremantle on the weekend, just think that they will win by turning up. Of course, all of these things could also happen to their opponent, resulting in a 100 point victory. Sport is an amazing pastime and many fascinating and unexpecting events can happen on gameday, but to assume that something is just going to happen because of a hunch, ain't good sports writing in my opinion.
EddyJ
Guest
It's funny all this debate about whether a dynasty is over, and which team is better. It's difficult to compare different eras, because there are so many variables – the players in that era, the amount of teams, the quality of coaches, types of strategies in play – but the main thing that you can rely on are statistics. If the modern era commenced in 1987, when the Perth and Brisbane teams were added, then Geelong have been in the most grand finals, and have won the second most premierships after Hawthorn (three – along with West Coast, Brisbane. Hawthorn won four). Since 1987, Geelong have won the most games (373 or 61%), ahead of Hawthorn and West Coast (339 each at 56%). But, they haven't had the same team for all of those 26 seasons, so you'd have to look at what constitutes a 'team'. Is it four or five seasons? Is it the period that a coach has been at the helm? It's really hard to say so, quite often, it justs ends up being personal bias or opinion. But, as far as my opinion is concerned, it would probably be Geelong (2007–2011), followed by Brisbane (1999–2004), Hawthorn (1987–1991) and West Coast (1991–1994). And as far as dynasties are concerned, you can only write about the end of dynasty in retrospect. Looking at history as a guide, Geelong's recent era is of high success is probably over – no team can be so dominant for more than five or six seasons, but let's have the discussion in a few years time and see where it goes.
sheek
Roar Guru
Okay Cameron, I'll let you off on the Melbourne comment. ;-) Of course, it would also depend on when someone said the Demons reign was over. Anyone saying it at the end of 1964 or beginning of 1965 must have had telepathy. How could anyone know for sure before another full season had been played how Melbourne were going to fare? Okay, Barassi left at the end of 1964, & the Demons tumbled out of the top 4. One bad year? Not good, but after two bad years, yes, a trend was developing. And that's my argument now. Geelong haven't even had a full 2013 season, & some are writing them off. It doesn't make sense. And people who jump the gun in anticipation usually get disqualified! :-)
Cameron Rose
Expert
Macca, I must say I don't mind your food. Normally every Friday morning I stop at one of your stores for a sausage muffin and a couple of hash browns while I read the papers and study the formguide. Yours is a common enough point of view, I much prefer the build up to when two great teams (Geel & StK, Geel & Coll) face off in the grand final. And despite the supposedly even nature of the teams this year, all finals were beyond doubt pretty early in proceedings over the weekend. The team in front at quarter time won all fixtures.