If the Wallabies lose to England at Twickenham, by any score, they could finish the weekend as the world’s fifth-ranked side.
The heavy defeat to France, coupled with the Springboks’ win against Ireland, has already cost them one place, with the updated IRB rankings nudging Australia down to third, France a whisker away on fourth and England in fifth.
An English victory would leave Australia praying that the French lose to Argentina later that day. Otherwise the Wallabies would be out of the top four – out of the elite – and bound for a second-tier seeding at the 2015 Rugby World Cup, when those are confirmed on December 3.
That worrying possibility – and the nature of the loss to France – should make some of the selection debates this week fairly clear-cut.
There will be no surprise if two-thirds of the front row is replaced, Sitaleki Timani returns to the second row, a new blindside is found, Brett Sheehan is brought in to add some security at No.9 and there are two changes to the back three.
In one sense, that’s the easy part.
The more difficult decision is what to do at No.12, if not for the England game then beyond. Pat McCabe has been Robbie Deans’ preferred choice, but a change has to at least be on the table if the inability to manufacture tries continues.
Such a move wouldn’t be a referendum on McCabe. He still would have a very strong case to be in the starting XV. But, on the evidence of not just last Saturday night but the previous four games, the question has to be asked whether the Wallabies are getting from McCabe at No.12 what they want.
The logic of his inclusion at inside-centre is sound enough. He is a brave defender and a committed runner, but by international standards his mid-size frame does not cause palpitations among opposition midfields, or even murmurs.
In recent outings with ball in hand, he had a bit of joy when he targeted All Blacks halfback Aaron Smith, but a lack of impact against other relatively small targets – the Springboks No.10 Johan Goosen and France’s Freddie Michalak – was more noticeable.
Presumably, he’s in the team to bowl these men over, but Goosen managed to hold him up long enough for the back row cavalry to arrive and Michalak was not exposed as expected.
If you don’t have the bulk, then footwork must be your tool. The All Blacks’ Tamati Ellison, aside from one very costly mistake, gave a good display of No.12 play against Scotland.
Admittedly, he was playing alongside Dan Carter in rare form and a behind multi-skilled pack that can distribute from the base of the scrum from numbers 1-8, but given the chance he beat his man with fast feet and got offloads away to his centre partner, Ben Smith.
McCabe has some very good qualities, but feigns and clever lateral movement are not among them.
His best moments have come when, positionally, he is allowed to come onto the ball at depth, to really accelerate into contact, and that position is No.15 or possibly even wing.
Pace is not a concern. When Argentina’s Gonzalo Camacho, who scored a brilliant finisher’s try against Wales last weekend, stripped the ball from Digby Ioane on the Gold Coast and scampered off, it was McCabe who ran him down.
The removal of Mike Harris creates a problem in terms of goalkicking, but it is neatly solved by inserting Berrick Barnes at No.12, where he has always looked most comfortable. He dovetailed nicely with James O’Connor there in the 2011 end-of-season mini-tour.
Barnes does not play the battering ram role, but leaves that to the likes of Timani from shortened lineouts or the muscular wings, Ioane and Cummins.
Painfully missing the individual attacking moments provided by Will Genia, O’Connor and a focused Quade Cooper, Australia’s use of the resources still available to them has only increased in importance. The jury is out on whether the best mix has yet been seen.
Ian
Guest
Nice post, I'd like to add that... Give yourself a margin for error when you are investing in the stock market. You should always have a cushion to fall back on, just in case some of your investments go south. Putting all of your eggs in a single basket is not a good idea, since you can lose everything in a downturn.
Ra
Guest
Those two island boys you mentioned seem to have a good balance of pace, power, step, kick selection and rugby smarts, Tomane & Lialiifano, but I've seen only glimpses of them both in super highlights packages
PeterK
Guest
last man standing since Beale has failed at 10 as a playmaker. Have to move Beale to 15. Maybe I could of picked Harris at 10?
Worlds Biggest
Guest
PeterK picking Barnes is a turn up !
ANON69
Guest
BARNES !!!!, because he is good looking, other than that I do not see why he is in the team.
ANON69
Guest
So what you are saying and Campo as well as Dwyer is saying is the same thing. Deans has failed to develop any meaning full combination at 12 and 13 for the last four years. All wallaby teams in the past were good because they had very good no 12s and 13s.
Derm
Roar Guru
And why cant it be resurrected? I thought that was a fabulous backline. Cooper needs to be reintegrated. Ioane and AAC at centre with O'Connor and Mitchell on the wings. It'd be better than what's there at the moment. Yeah, there's injuries this year. And Australia may go down a peg or two. But it's next year is where to start improving. A loss to England and a fourth victory over Wales wouldn't be the worst.
s.t.rine
Guest
Top four seedings may not be so important as before, as now you have legitimate second-tier challengers - Argentine, Wales, Samoa....and France if they are not top four. Upsets do occur. Of course I want to see Ws beat England, if for nothing more than silencing the Pom press. S. T
PeterK
Guest
I would also add that the complete package f/b has to be a good last line of defence, reliable to stop tries one on one. Like Matt Burke. Beale - Fail, misses far too many tackles as last line of defence. AAC - Reliable tackler. - Check. Morahan Good under the high ball good runner good defender first instinct - good, well at least under McKenzie he is not a good kicker . Mogg Good under the high ball good runner first instinct good good kicker not a reliable defender
Bakkies
Guest
Well the only provincial team that stood up to the Lions in '01 was the Brumbies. The Tahs and Reds were a joke
Rob from Brumby Country
Guest
Fullback is a funny position for us at the moment. For all the depth we supposedly have, I can't name a single player who comes close to being the complete package. I think we can all agree that the most important characteristics for a 15 would be : - safe under the high ball - strong boot - first instinct to either kick long and deep, or run aggressively without kicking at all (none of those dicky little chip kicks straight down the throat of Julian Savea or Israel Dagg, for example) Let's meet the candidates. 1) Kurtley Beale - good (usually) under the high ball - check - good runner, can be very elusive - check - reasonably good boot - check - First instinct: serial offender of stupid chip and chases that waste possession - FAIL 2) Adam Ashley-Cooper - Best Wallaby under the high ball - check - decent runner, has a bit of shove - check - good boot - check - First instinct: constant up-and-unders in the middle of the field - FAIL 3) Mike Harris - Terrible under the high ball - FAIL So as you can see, we're just a little bit short (no pun intended) on a Chris Latham at the moment!!
PeterK
Guest
Why do people think McCabe would make a good 13, especially better than Cummins? McCabe is very one dimensional, he runs hard and straight, no deception, no ball skills. He is good on one on one tackles but missed a lot on the weekend when he had to make a choice. Cummins runs straight and hard, he also has a step and uses it, he also runs into holes. 3 dimensions there. He also passes the ball when he runs to the line. He tackles at least as well. Cummins played 13 better than McCabe at super level. McCabe would be a good winger and thats it. My team Slipper Moore Ryan (this was the frontrow that got the tight head, so reward them) Sharpe Timani Samo Hooper Palu Sheehan Barnes (but not allowed to kick it) Ioane Taps Cummins McCabe Beale Reserves TPN Alexander Kepu Dennis (last man standing, does not even deserve a bench spot) Gill Phipps Harris AAC Note AAC has not had a good attacking game for years. His highlights are in defence.
Rob from Brumby Country
Guest
Agree 100%. I'm sick and tired of 'ball playing' twelves. I have always felt that an inside-centre's competence should be judged by his ability to run good lines, draw and offload, and tackle hard. By these standards, Tapuai is the best inside-centre this country has had since Flately, perhaps even since Horan. I'm still tearing my hair out as to how they can keep selecting him at 13 and McCabe at 12. If I remember the Deans years for anything, it will be for the players being constantly selected out of position.
joeb
Guest
I'm all for Link taking the reins, but yes i'd probably baulk if Nuci was offered the gig. The strange thing is O'Neill said on camera defiantly last year, that the job would be Link's “at some stage down the track ‘as we all know’,” but now we learn that if RD's contract is terminated early, Nuci’s in line for the head coaching job. If Dave’s a gentleman, and a perfect one at that, which we know he is, he'll hand it straight over to Link, should such happen. ;) Re “historical structural problems,” it obviously takes a lot of time, effort and money to get it spot-on-right, but as some suggested earlier when JON suddenly announced his immediate departure, John Eales would be ideal as next ARU CEO as he’s level-headed, listens to advice, and possesses the inside knowledge required to take the Wallabies’ game and personnel forward. Now we wait with bated breath to see/hear what the ARU come up with next month with their much anticipated review. And as you said earlier, club rugby does indeed need urgent attention, as does the grassroots.
Billy Bob
Guest
Of course Sheek, it is an old metaphor and apology not necessary. It is sad that all this discussion of selections and alternate coaches leads more than a few of us to images of deckchairs on leaky boats.. And I am still hoping that we are both wrong, but............is that another iceberg up ahead?
Rob9
Roar Guru
Yea McCabe is playing a role that he’s being asked to play, but he’s limited in how effective he can be in carrying it out. Not to mention he offers nowhere near as much as most other tier one 12’s and a lot of other potential 12’s we have in this country. He’s not the Nonu/Roberts type monster who are guys you can build some momentum behind. These guys don’t just run hard into the defence line, they bust threw first tackles and have the ability to offload and individually put defences on the back foot. Yea the forwards aren’t exactly playing their part but McCabe’s not putting a chink in the defensive line and we have other players who possess other ways to get over the gain line and have defences back peddling.
Rob9
Roar Guru
Standout performance in the SA QF?? Are you sure you’re not re-writing history there MJ? If my memory serves me correctly, McCabe was subbed early on in the second half for Barnes. What exactly did he do to deserve a ‘standout performance’ in your eyes? Tackle his guts out? Well the whole team did and possessing the ability to make your tackles is kind of a prerequisite for inside backs playing test rugby. If we’re going to go to the WC for examples, the only time that Quade looked at all settled was when Barnes was playing outside of him. It was clear Quade’s game benefitted from having a second play maker alongside him to take a bit of the heat off. My (and many other) mind(s) boggled as to how Deans could persist with McCabe when a proven 10/12 partnership emerged in the form of Cooper and Barnes. Sure, all of our faults can’t fall on the shoulders of McCabe and to expect a complete u-bolt in the Wallabies output because of the removal of one player is unrealistic. But in my eyes (and clearly in the eyes of countless others), our backline (which has coped mountains of criticism for being one dimensional and uncreative) will be better off without him.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Jeeesus you know things are dire with the Wallabies when our kiwi mates are feeling sorry for us and are frustrated with the wallas ineptitude. Being a Wallaby supporter is excruciating.
Tui
Guest
I feel very very sorry for Wallaby fans. The Brisbane result was a combination of poor AB's, referee favouritism and a fluke masquerading a very brittle side. This Wallabies side has dished up shyte all year long and Deans needs to go. I am actually sick of seeing the Wallabies fall so meekly time and time again and yet no change comes about and no one takes any accountability. It will be a disgrace if the Poms put on a performance like in Paris. SH rugby needs a strong Wallabies side and apart from a 3N trophy in a WC year they have won nothing for a decade. Heads need to roll.
Mango Jack
Guest
You're ignoring the fact the wallabies were no better when McCabe was injured. Also ignoring his standout performance against SA in the WC QF. Clearly it is nonsense to put the blame solely on him, esp suggesting 10s have ailed because of him. laughable.