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If the Wallabies lose to England at Twickenham, by any score, they could finish the weekend as the world’s fifth-ranked side.
The heavy defeat to France, coupled with the Springboks’ win against Ireland, has already cost them one place, with the updated IRB rankings nudging Australia down to third, France a whisker away on fourth and England in fifth.
An English victory would leave Australia praying that the French lose to Argentina later that day. Otherwise the Wallabies would be out of the top four – out of the elite – and bound for a second-tier seeding at the 2015 Rugby World Cup, when those are confirmed on December 3.
That worrying possibility – and the nature of the loss to France – should make some of the selection debates this week fairly clear-cut.
There will be no surprise if two-thirds of the front row is replaced, Sitaleki Timani returns to the second row, a new blindside is found, Brett Sheehan is brought in to add some security at No.9 and there are two changes to the back three.
In one sense, that’s the easy part.
The more difficult decision is what to do at No.12, if not for the England game then beyond. Pat McCabe has been Robbie Deans’ preferred choice, but a change has to at least be on the table if the inability to manufacture tries continues.
Such a move wouldn’t be a referendum on McCabe. He still would have a very strong case to be in the starting XV. But, on the evidence of not just last Saturday night but the previous four games, the question has to be asked whether the Wallabies are getting from McCabe at No.12 what they want.
The logic of his inclusion at inside-centre is sound enough. He is a brave defender and a committed runner, but by international standards his mid-size frame does not cause palpitations among opposition midfields, or even murmurs.
In recent outings with ball in hand, he had a bit of joy when he targeted All Blacks halfback Aaron Smith, but a lack of impact against other relatively small targets – the Springboks No.10 Johan Goosen and France’s Freddie Michalak – was more noticeable.
Presumably, he’s in the team to bowl these men over, but Goosen managed to hold him up long enough for the back row cavalry to arrive and Michalak was not exposed as expected.
If you don’t have the bulk, then footwork must be your tool. The All Blacks’ Tamati Ellison, aside from one very costly mistake, gave a good display of No.12 play against Scotland.
Admittedly, he was playing alongside Dan Carter in rare form and a behind multi-skilled pack that can distribute from the base of the scrum from numbers 1-8, but given the chance he beat his man with fast feet and got offloads away to his centre partner, Ben Smith.
McCabe has some very good qualities, but feigns and clever lateral movement are not among them.
His best moments have come when, positionally, he is allowed to come onto the ball at depth, to really accelerate into contact, and that position is No.15 or possibly even wing.
Pace is not a concern. When Argentina’s Gonzalo Camacho, who scored a brilliant finisher’s try against Wales last weekend, stripped the ball from Digby Ioane on the Gold Coast and scampered off, it was McCabe who ran him down.
The removal of Mike Harris creates a problem in terms of goalkicking, but it is neatly solved by inserting Berrick Barnes at No.12, where he has always looked most comfortable. He dovetailed nicely with James O’Connor there in the 2011 end-of-season mini-tour.
Barnes does not play the battering ram role, but leaves that to the likes of Timani from shortened lineouts or the muscular wings, Ioane and Cummins.
Painfully missing the individual attacking moments provided by Will Genia, O’Connor and a focused Quade Cooper, Australia’s use of the resources still available to them has only increased in importance. The jury is out on whether the best mix has yet been seen.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.