I think that the Wallabies are shaping to become a serious powerhouse in world rugby over the next three to four years, certainly in time for the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
In fact I am going to be so bold as to say that they have got the best shot of a team peaking at exactly the right time for that competition.
Bear with me.
Let’s consider the position when Robbie Deans first took the Wallabies on in 2008 – this was his squad.
If you scan that players list you will notice a fair number of the current crop of players missing. If you ever wanted some evidence of Robbie Deans’ emphasis (and requirement) on rebuilding Australian rugby (after it arguably rested on its laurels leading into 2007 Rugby World Cup) that squad list is proof.
Deans has brought in Genia, Cooper, Hooper, Gill, Beale, O’Connor, Timani, etc. from scratch. On top of that he has supported these players from that 2008 squad who at the time had: Alexander uncapped, Burgess uncapped, Ioane one cap, Berrick Barnes four caps, Adam Ashley-Cooper 12 caps, Tatafu Polota-Nau three caps and James Horwill one cap.
It is reasonable to expect that in the intermediate period, the Wallabies would have performed abysmally and would struggle.
But what Robbie has managed to do is build some seriously enviable depth and still manage an ok record with a bunch of developing players.
So, let’s take a look at the likely 2015 World Cup squad (including backups) and see how Robbie has implemented a franchise-like depth to the Wallabies:
1. Ben Alexander (46 caps)/Sekope Kepu (21 )/Dan Palmer (one)
2. Tatafu Polota-Nau (43)/Stephen Moore (74)/Saia Fainga’a (19)/ James Hanson (one)
3. Benn Robinson (54)/James Slipper (32)/Paddy Ryan (one)
4. James Horwill (35)/ Rob Simmons (23)
5. Kane Douglas (four)/Caderyn Neville/Sitaleki Timani (nine)
6. Dave Dennis (13)/Radike Samo (23)/Scott Higginbotham (21)/Ita Vaea/Hugh McMeniman (21)
7. David Pocock (45)/Michael Hooper(11)/Liam Gill(8)
8. Wycliff Palu (44)/Ben McCalman (21) /Richard Brown (23)
9. Will Genia (42)/Nick Phipps (10)
10. Kurtley Beale (34) /Berrick Barnes (48) (with Matt Toomua/Christian Lealiafano in the wings)
11. Digby Ioane (32)/Nick Cummins (four)/Drew Mitchell (61)/Lachie Turner (15)/Dom Shipperly (three)
12. Pat McCabe (19)/Ben Tapuai (four)/James O’Connor(37)/Chris Feauai-Sautia (if you don’t know him google him – he is the next big thing)
13. Rob Horne (14)/Adam Ashley-Cooper (75)/Anthony Fainga’a (23)
14. Joe Tomane(one)/Cooper Vuna (two)/Rod Davies (one)
15. Mike Harris (seven)/Luke Morahan (one)
If you pick the players now with close to 40 or more caps, and then throw in some up and coming talent, such as Tomane, Sautia, Lealifano, I have added 40 caps for roughly four years of Test rugby (lowered the number to account for injuries etc) to their current totals.
That is the next Rugby World Cup champion team. That team would have 22 players with a total of 1381 caps with an average of 62 caps per player. That is the sort of experience you need to win the World Cup.
Will just be a shame that some other coach (please don’t let it be Ewen McKenzie) will reap the benefits of this development of experience and commitment to youth that has epitomised Robbie’s reign.
Yes indeed, the Wallabies truly are maturing like a fine wine – and it will now be the All Blacks turn over the next few years to see how their own youngsters perform (as the Wallabies already had to endure their ten straight losses when blooding against an All Blacks team which was largely unchanged from 2007).
I look forward to the battles between Beauden Barrett and an established James O’Connor for example, or Sam Cane taking on David Pocock.
Kane
Roar Guru
Yep only for. For Australia: 1. NM Cummins (5) 2. DA Dennis (14) 3. KP Douglas (5) 4. LB Gill (8) 5. JE Hanson (1) 6. MJ Harris (7) 7. M Hooper (12) 8. LJ Morahan (1) 9. DP Palmer (1) 10.P Ryan (1) 11. D Shipperley (3) 12. J Tomane (1) 13. C Vuna (2) Total 13 new caps with total of 61 games at an average of 4.69 caps each. For New Zealand. 1. BJ Barrett (5) 2. SJ Cane (4) 3. DS Coles (3) 4. CC Faumuina (6) 5. TNJ Kerr-Barlow (2) 6. BA Retallick (12) 7. L Romano (10) 8. SJ Savea (8) 9. AL Smith (12) Total nine new caps with total of 62 tests at an average of 6.89 caps each. I find it very surprising that NZ have debuted less players but have given them more experience from less matches. Also it is fair to note that Australia played an extra game before their three match series against Wales so they had an extra match to debut players and in that match they debuted Hooper, Palmer, Tomane, Dennis, Morahan & Harris. Since that match they have only debuted seven players.
JDP
Roar Guru
Not enough traffic to rebuke Savea, Cruden, Cane, Beauden though right? I think we can all happily admit that the first string ABs is a much older team than the first string Wallabies.
JDP
Roar Guru
Only four?
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Kane compare the older players in your list, Pocock, Genia, Horwill, with the older All Blacks up above and you'll see a huge difference. Hooper is a very young backup to a young Pocock. Neither will be old at the next RWC. Maybe that's why more youngsters weren't blooded this year, though personally I think they should have been.
Kane
Guest
Yep thats right Jerry. What about all these younger players replacing older ones, Hooper for Pocock, Phipps for Genia, Timani for Horwill. If Australia have like 40 injuries and Hansen is hell bent on not promoting young talent then why have Australia only debuted 4 more players than the All Blacks in 2012?
bob
Guest
I haven't really heard deans say anything about his record in the super 15? I have heard his supporters on the roar quite rightly point out that his super 15 coaching record is unmatched by anybody, but I have not heard deans mention it. As a result I am a bit confused about how deans lives on his super 15 record?
Jerry
Guest
Jane was really swapped for Gear though, who's only a year younger than him. And the locking pair of Ali Williams (31) and Luke Romano (26) instead of what has generally been the first choice pair of Whitelock (24) and Retallick (21) shows that there was also traffic in the other direction.
John Philipson
Guest
If you see my post above I fully admit to not knowing who plays on which side of the scrum - apologies if this peeved people off. Will remember to research a bit futher next time! Thanks for the read though!
John Philipson
Guest
What's funnier is that the only reason the average is so low for the All Blacks is because the following youngsters were playing in position of first teamers: Cane (20) for Richie McCaw (31), Julian Savea (22) for Cory Jane (29), Aaron Cruden (23) for Daniel Carter (30), Beauden Barrett (21) for Israel Dagg (I know he was carrying a small bruising injury - but still he is 24). If we remove these players and add in the others, thereby recalculating the average - you see the All Blacks team has an average age of: 28 Funny how statistics work - magic like that! They are what you need them to be in most instances! Funnily enough also, the Wallabies age average would suffer from the inclusion of Nathan Sharpe vs say Rob Simmons, and the exclusion of a young buck like James O'Connor.
jeznez
Roar Guru
Well done JP, you managed to name one out of six props in position!
Sam
Guest
I can definately see us a being in with a good chance at RWC 2015 the 18 all draw against the all blacks with a second string team shows we have huge potential its still a bit bumpy at the moment but three years is plenty of time to sought it out.What the ARU needs to do its sought out a good player management system so in the future were not left with piles of injuries of injuries.But sometimes (eg the all blacks test) injuries can be a blessing in disguise as it takes the pressure off the team and gives other players opportunity to play and prove themselves.
Ra
Guest
KPM you are so right. When you are No1 there is only one place to go, and that's down. Not all All Blacks are going to be at the top of their game all the time, or be the best player in their position in the world. But come the day, the guy who pulls on the black jersey is an All Black. John Kirwan once said that to beat the All Blacks a team must bring their A game. The thing is, that the Blacks could play a B or C game and still beat an oppositions A game. I agree with all the comments here. I've written myself about the quality of player the Aussies have to call on over the next two years. It doesn't matter whether they are sitting 2nd or 5th in the world. They are going to be tough to put away. I think it's a dumb argument putting up and arguing over maybe teams, and maybe players who might be lining up at the RWC 2015. What a waste of energy. Equally dumb is trying to create argument over where O Connor should play. He plays where the coach puts him, and he's damn good wherever he's put. I agree with an article El Gamba wrote in June. He wondered whether some scribes in here have played the game. I add, or coached it at anytime. The All Blacks are not going to improve their position at the top of the pile. But they can improve individual skills, knowledge and strengths, and team skills and combinations. At the end of the day, the competition is simply: the Kiwi All Blacks vs the World. It doesn't matter who is wearing that other jersey, or what colour it is. That guy is representing his people, he's bringing his A game, and we wouldn't have it any other way.
Ra
Guest
What do you call out of position Justin? And how do you workout what positions best suit the player or best suit the team plan?
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Sorry couldn't get to the computer for a while. That's all true, and it takes a good while to make the step up to playing well at that level of intensity.
Martin D.
Guest
The author got the loose head and tight head props around the wrong way, but otherwise a good job.
Darth Vadar
Guest
it is called "Magical Thinking" John! Look it up!
Kane
Guest
The average age of both the Wallabies and All Blacks last weekend was 26, funny that
Kane
Guest
If Australia have like 40 injuries and Hansen is hell bent on not promoting young talent then why have Australia only debuted 4 more players than the All Blacks in 2012?
Kane
Guest
Was that when Jane leaped right over top of him to regather a kick and score?
El Gamba
Roar Guru
No McCaw, No Carter, No chance.