It took the Sydney Swans – the first AFL venture in foreign territory – twenty four seasons to land their first premiership, so it is extremely unlikely the Gold Coast will claim theirs in five, as suggested by the club’s chairman John Witheriff.
But it does prompt the question: which of the two newcomers will win a premiership first, the Suns or the Giants?
Up until now the Gold Coast has had the air of the older, less talented sibling: using its experience to extract the most from its limited resources while the younger brother – brash and brimming with potential – bides his time before enbarking on a golden career.
The poor Gold Coast has been viewed as a bit of prototype for the Giants, with the AFL pinpointing teething problems experienced by the former and then attempting to avoid them with the latter.
Entering the “heartland” of rugby league and with the perfect marketing mouthpiece in Kevin Sheedy, the Giants stole the promotional show.
Both of the fledgling clubs struggled to attract quality experienced players due to the conservative nature of the code and the value given to club loyalty.
Of the two clubs, the Suns were the only one to pick up a genuine superstar in Gary Ablett, and also had a superior list of experienced players. GWS were forced to bring James McDonald, Luke Power, Dean Brogan and Chad Cornes out of retirement and to utilise McDonald and Power as playing assistant coaches.
The Giants, however, were given a huge basket of premium eggs at last year’s Draft comprising nine of the top fifteen selections which was topped up on Thursday with the best three of the 2012 Draft.
They are clearly building for a dominant future, whereas the Suns who had Draft picks thirteen, fifty-five, fifty-seven and fifty-eight don’t look as potent.
It seemed the Giants were going to surpass their predecessors immediately when they beat the Gold Coast comfortably in their first encounter. While it was nice to see the young team win their first match it was a little sad that it had to be at the expense of the almost forgotten Suns.
The Suns looked like becoming completely irrelevant before they turned things around a little. They only won three games, but they gained revenge on GWS in the return fixture and went close to defeating Fremantle and Geelong. Their spirits were also lifted when rugby league recruit Karmichael Hunt confirmed his status as a genuine footballer; unlike GWS’s equivalent Israel Folau.
With Kevin Sheedy’s incessant trumpeting of his team’s inevitable dominant future it was refreshing to hear from Witheriff even if his confidence and exuberance do not reflect the reality of his team’s prospects.
Of the two clubs you would have to say GWS is the best prepared for a tilt at a premiership but as the Swans found out, winning the first can be a long and difficult road.
Both clubs will need a strong dynamic coach before they are a threat. Both Sheedy and McKenna are good mentors but they must be replaced eventually by a coach like Leigh Matthews, Paul Roos or Mick Malthouse.
The best team of 2012 in Hawthorn couldn’t win the flag. Collingwood, the most consistent and talented team of the past four years didn’t make the Grand Final.
I think it will be some time yet before the new boys are in with a shot.
The Kebab Connoisseur
Guest
St. Kilda took 69 years to win it's first and only flag. Footscray 30 odd. Still waiting for Fremantle. Might not happen for many, many years. They have to deal with travelling every second week. That will be tough on them. Also with the Giants, they may or may not be around in a decade. The AFL seems to be hedging it's bets on them. They might become the Canberra Cockatoos sooner or later, who knows. So far it looks a shonky model up there with bugger all support.
TC
Guest
North and St Kilda waited 50 years and 70 years respectively for their first. It's not out of the question that that might happen again for one or two of Freo, the Suns or the Giants. The AFL's investment in those clubs doesn't guarantee that they can be the last club standing after a long season - there are far too many variables. And certainly, with 18 teams in the comp, it's a given that some teams will go for decades upon decades without winning a flag (happening already). TC
Brendan
Guest
Your stats are correct TC so if its that hard for Stkilda and the Bulldogs to win one flag in 12 team comps it makes you wonder whether they have any chance in an 18 team comp.Sadly i think some sides may never win another flag.As for the question posed by Andrew GWS will win one first the Afl have invested too much money for them not to win a flag.
Jason Cave
Guest
If I was to pick which of these two clubs would a premiership, I'd say GWS Giants. Their youngsters look a lot more in tune with playing AFL than the Suns. And with a coach like Kevin Sheedy, who knows how to win premierships at Essendon (why did the Suns choose Guy McKenna, and not Malcolm Blight?), the Giants are certainly on the right path.
Andy_Roo
Roar Guru
Andrew, I will join RedB and actually answer the question in your headline. I think GWS will win a flag before the Suns. Both side have a lot of young talent but GWS picked a couply of established players in Scully and Davis who will still be in their prime when the younger players come into theirs in about 5 or 6 years. The Suns establishewd players in Ablett, Bock, Brennan will be retied before their young player reach their prime.
Australian Rules
Guest
To those suggesting the Suns and Giants will fold...that *could* happen if win/loss, crowds, members etc didn't haven't improved by 2050. Not before then.
Redb
Roar Guru
who?
TC
Guest
I'm not sure that you can say they are two years in front, and even with the one year head start there are many who will argue that the Giants have whittled that away a bit. TC
Redb
Roar Guru
GC Suns for mine, they are two years in front of GWS, have more senior players, another year into their youngsters and have one Garry Ablett. GWS still look like a development squad.
PhelpsyPaul
Guest
Gold coast seem to have plenty of support up here . Lots if cars with the club stickers on them. A lot of lions supporters I know are now suns supporters, that could be a concern but given the suns are making money, getting a crowd, and plenty of publicity ... All while losing, I can't see them Going anywhere fast.
TC
Guest
North last won a premiership 13 years ago. In an 18 team comp - that's recent enough. Essendon last won one 12 years ago, and Carlton last won one 17 years ago. Collingwood experienced a 20 year gap between it's 14th and 15th premierships. The Swans had to waid 72 years between their 3rd and 4th premierships. In an 18 team comp, we have to expect that some clubs will go decades without winning a premiership. It's possible that some may never win one, or that they might have to wait a century. St KIlda had to wait 70 years (at a time when the comp was between 8 and 12 teams large), there only success in their 140 year existence. North had to actually wait 50 years before winning it's first VFL Premiership. Hawthorn had to wait 36 years. Next year Footscray would have gone 59 years without winning one. That's just the way it is - as a former Australian PM once said: life wasn't meant to be easy. As for GWS and the Suns - I wouldn't have a clue how quickly it will be or even if it will ever happen. TC
RB
Roar Rookie
"whereas the Suns who had Draft picks thirteen, fifty-five, fifty-seven and fifty-eight don’t look as potent" You are selectively using the facts here. You haven't mentioned that the Suns traded their pick 2 for Jack Martin in the mini draft, as well as no mention that Jaeger O'Meara will be playing for the club in 2013, who probably would have been the Number 1 pick if eligible in this year's draft, and is already the favourite for next years' rising star award.
JVGO
Guest
Footscray, Richmond, St Kilda, Melbourne and North (and Freo) should all win a premiership before these two clubs do.....should do, but probably won't. I guess Demetriou figures it hasn't bothered them much for the last 50 or 60 years so why would they start worrying now.
Steve
Guest
The sea will erode Australia's coastline until Alice Springs has a harbour before Gold Coast or GWS win the AFL.
Pollock
Guest
Suns to fold within 5 years and GWS will be funded by the AFL for 10 years with all those top draft picks leaving for other clubs after 3 or 4 years of being belted by 10 goals a game. I love a good game but cannot watch agame with either of these sides because they are hopeless. The Gold Coast seems incapable of supporting a professional football side.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Bob, We have this thing in the AFL called "trading", where you can swap players you dont want to pay for draft picks. You might note that GWS have done this already with Jack Hombsch going to Port Adelaide.
Bob
Guest
You'd think having 18 first round picks in your team would create alarm bells for the AFL- how could anyone afford to pay them all when their contracts inevitably inflate in value. Everybody thinks GWS has a winning strategy but I see it as short sighted.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
As we can clearly see by the reluctance of the Gold Coast and GWS players to extend their contracts. Oh. Wait.
Arthur Fonzarelli
Guest
The North Sydney Bears will win the NRL before either Gold Coast or GWS win the AFL.
Brewski
Roar Rookie
GCFC are aiming for 20,000 members next season ... very ambitious .... but i guess you gotta aim big. I actually see them doing very well on the GC. http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/151636/default.aspx