There are few better places to start looking for a side’s prospects in 2013 than reviews of their play last year. Another look at the tapes can challenge prejudices the viewer might nurture – or confirm opinions already held.
With that in mind replays of two Reds games, against Blues and Crusaders in New Zealand, are rich sources of information.
They encourage a number of observations: how smart the Reds are, tactically: how the abilities of Rob Simmons should not be forgotten: how Greg Holmes struggled against Owen Franks at scrum time, with Robbie Deans watching from the stands, one week after the Waratahs front row enjoyed parity, or better, against the Crusaders; and, above all, how the smallest player in the Reds’ ranks will leave the biggest hole.
Will Genia was superb.
In which facets? All of them. His box-kicking was wonderful, almost always providing a contest for willing chasers, always getting his side moving forwards.
The passing was crisp, with Genia popping those trademark short, flat passes right on the gainline, or going wider – to 10 or 12 – when he saw the space.
For Dom Shipperley’s try against the Blues in Auckland, Genia turned his body and produced a precision, right to left looping pass over the last defender to put his winger in the corner.
And when the Reds went to the pick and drive, a favourite tactic, there was Genia sitting in a little pocket behind the big men, organising and encouraging.
He does all of these things while holding up the defensive line with the threat of running the ball himself, and with a low error rate.
Less heralded, although frequently seen, attributes were also on display. From the back of one under-pressure scrum in Christchurch, he somehow picked up the ball and and still manage to recycle possession under a mass of forwards.
In the ‘sweeping’ role played by the modern No.9 – Genia is particularly solid under the high ball – he again showed that his kicking out of hand has the length and accuracy of any five-eighth in Australia.
It is the completeness of this rugby package that makes it so difficult for the Reds to replace, regardless of how sharply they are coached.
His possible replacements are no mugs, either. In both the Crusaders and Blues games Ben Lucas reiterated what a fine player he is, with his accurate crossfield kicks and stout defence a particular feature.
In his opportunities last year Nick Frisby brought immense energy and promise. But neither has the mastery over the role Genia has.
And the halfback position has become so influential that the greatest change to the All Blacks’ way of playing last year was brought about simply by the introduction of a new, faster No.9.
In Super Rugby’s ruthless environment the Reds’ rivals will see a vulnerability to their early campaign. The talk has been of Genia returning in round six.
By then all of the Australian sides, as well as the Hurricanes, will have had a crack at the Queenslanders,. At the very least defence coaches will sleep easier in Genia’s absence.
It complicates Quade Cooper’s comeback, too.
There might be some Australian players relishing the opportunity to put him under a little physical duress should the quality of ball coming his way decrease, or give him less time. But it is not all negative for the No.10.
If he takes ownership of the side and directs them well without his partner in crime it may be a long-awaited sign of increasing maturity.
There has been a lot of distracting talk recently about the possible release or non-release of players for fixtures that are four and a half months away.
But we’ll learn some important lessons much sooner than that.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
2011 Rd 10 when the pack failed to convert the mountain of possession on the Reds try line. 2012 Rd 1 and 2012 Rd 18 when they were horrendously unfit and couldn't go the full 80 with the Reds. They got on top Rd 2 2011, and thats the last time to date.
Hoy
Roar Guru
Call me a dreamer. I took your "won the scum battle" to imply he is a better scrummager. But what you are saying is akin to saying the bloke who knocked me out when I wasn't looking is a better fighter. I would imagine the laws of the game state who is cheating, and the subjectivity of Refs is another argument altogether. Interpretaion leaves a lot to be desired really. For example, hands on the ground can affect the scrum, and is cheating. Boring in is cheating and can affect the scrum. Simple stuff really. That a ref lets one player do that doesn't mean it isn't illegal, and doesn't mean the other player should then partake in dangerous illegal play either surely? Castrogiovanni is hyped up as a good scrummager. But the previous time we played Italy, he dominated by boring in, and cheating. When he was found out, after half a game had gone by, and penalised accordingly, the Italians stopped dominating the scrum. Who won that battle? You worship a prop who cheats and manipulates, and I will keep my ideals thank you.
jameswm
Guest
Just realised I left Folau out of this comparison. Which 3 of the last 4 games did the NSW pack lose, jiggles?
Hightackle
Guest
In 2012 the Canes were the best attacking team in the comp. At the end of the season they beat the Saders and Chiefs. They now have B.Franks and a very good front row, second row, back row, halfback, #10, FB, Centre, wings etc. Coles, Shields, Barrett, Savea now have AB experience of one sort or another and are 1 year more experienced. They will top the comp and win the final and Im a Chiefs fan. Im very surprised that more people are not picking them. 1) B.Franks 2) Coles 3) Toomaga-Allen 4) Broadhurst 5) Eaton 6) Shields 7) Lowe 8) Vito 9) TJ 10) Barrett 11) Savea 12) Leiua (please) 13) Smith 14) Jane 15) Taylor That (or variations of it) is a good team.
Hightackle
Guest
A scrum where everything is legit? Dreamer. Playing the whistle, heard of it. Whats against the laws? Every ref is different and its who adapts better. Just ask every world class prop or openside. Its who wins the battle that counts. The three men who ref the game decide who is "cheating".
Sabebon
Guest
Lucas back up 9 Wallaby ...... Dreaming
jnr
Guest
big call that best backline thought brumbies backline when cl was playing was as good as any and mogg what a joy to watch
Fin
Guest
What a great oppurtunity this is for Lucas. There are plenty of punters out there calling for him to be the back up 9 for the Wallabies due to his versatility and the lack of any real great alternative. But the reality is that he has not had enough game time at 9 for the Reds to risk the possibility he might be require to play 79 mins there at test level. Hopeully Link gives him a chance to stake his claim.
Strap
Guest
Not sure that Genia is either awesome or the best in the world, the guy keeps getting outplayed at test level but is very, very good at Soup level. A bit like Cooper in fact.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
I still don't know what White was thinking not playing Hooper. Gill was in form and was proving to bar a handful. It'll be interesting to see how they approach the break down tip his year, hopefully the pressure is off a bit after last year.
Malo
Guest
Genia is awesome, the best in the world. But the time he comes back qld will have lost plenty of games, QC will be doing his block and the reds will be a rabble coming about 10th.Winning a few at the end when Genia is in full flight and the forwards start gelling.
jeznez
Roar Guru
I'm a Holmes supporter but didn't watch that game closely enough to comment.
Jutsie
Guest
Im not disagreeing with u, completely agree. I will take the strong unit over the stars any day. As the old cliche goes a champion team always beats a team of champions. I thought the brumbies really disrupted the reds pack in that 2nd game and it was an ugly game because they wanted it to be, as u say a lucky win but good teams make their own luck. the first game came down to white's misguided belief that vaea was a better 7 than hooper, link played two opensides who had a field day at the breakdown. And again you wont hear an argument from me about the reds pack in 2011, they were the masters of controlling the breakdown and tempo of games, but i think a number of teams figured the pack out in 2012 and focussed alot of energy in flooding the breakdown and making a mess b4 the ball got to genia. The reds took a while to adjust.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
Rugby being a team, I'd take the pack functioning as a unit. NSW hasn't fired as a unit for a number of years now and they're onto their 3rd coach with a consistent nucleus. So it's time some questions start being asked of players rather than everything and everyone else. I posted forwards statistics a number of weeks ago and while being simplistic, it showed the tahs were far behind the Reds, Brumbies and force packs. The Brumbies were much improved but they were beaten twice trying to take the Reds up front. The second game was lucky though. Their second row and Moore is the main engine room around the park. The Reds were off, and it came down to accuracy and application being a little off at the breakdown. However as those stats I posed show, they were still the most effective pack in Australia. . In 2011 everyone talks about the genius of Genia and Cooper, but it was the pack that won that premiership. You just have to watch the games against the stromers, Bulls, crusaders twice, blues twice and Tahs at suncorp to see what I mean.
Jutsie
Guest
If you stack each player against each other (like james did below) you would say NSW has the better pack but on the park the reds work much better as a unit, the tahs pack like the team as a whole has been a rabble. However I thought the reds pack were very disappointing at the beginning of 2012 (i mention below that I think it was due to complacency and championship hangover) and would rate the brumbies pack as the overall most consistent pack in aus during 2012.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
Considering they have topped possession stats and rucks and mauls over the last 2 seasons in Australia, I'm not sure how they can be behind either of those 2 teams.
Jiggles
Roar Guru
I'm still to see a reason why the nsw pack is clearly better. They've been beaten 3 out of last 4 games. Sure they get selected by Deans but he doesn't understand the difference between a LHP and a THP and thinks Timani is test standard. Hardly a glowing endorsement.
Red Kev
Guest
7th is worth a flutter. I like the look of the Highlanders this year to be honest.
Red Kev
Guest
I'll happily correct you, if you read any of the Reds advisories (which you probably don't since you're not a Reds fan or a rugby journo) you'd know that the Reds coaching team is 3 people. It was three people last year, it is three people this year. The titles are something nice to put on your resume, but Link is still in charge. Next year I would expect Graham to be in charge because Link will be at the Wallabies.
sittingbison
Guest
with braindead dikc in charge, the Reds will play like donkeys and will struggle to not win the wooden spoon in Oz conference. Best recruit they ever had.