With the official start of Super Rugby 2013 drawing nearer, it’s time to look at how some of the clubs may fair this year.
This installment will focus on the New Zealand teams.
Crusaders
In all likelihood, the Crusaders will continue their dominance of Super Rugby in 2013.
While their 2012 campaign would be considered a failure amongst the team itself due to the fact they didn’t make the final, they showed the rest of the competition that they can win with their marquee players into their 30s.
Right now the Crusaders have an effective mix of youth and age, with much of their youth in their fast-moving backline and much of their experience up front, which is a combination any team would be happy with.
Players such as Israel Dagg and Zac Guildford exemplify their youthful backline, while their is no lack of matches in forwards leaders such as Kieran Read and Corey Flynn.
However, it remains to be seen how much of an impact the loss of Richie McCaw will hurt. No matter what country you’re from, Richie McCaw is truly a legend of the sport of rugby, and without taking anything away from Kieran Read’s leadership qualities, McCaw is virtually as irreplaceable off the field as he is on.
It should certainly be an interesting Richie-less year in Christchurch, but the Crusaders should stay competitive as always.
Prediction: 3rd (1st in conference)
Chiefs
It’s hard to go past the Chiefs as one of the favourites for the Super Rugby crown in 2013, headed by captains Craig Clarke and Liam Messam, and star player Aaron Cruden, the Chiefs should look to have yet another solid season near the top of the table.
However, the off-season held its’ fair share of disappointment for the defending champions. The Chiefs lost some quality players in the off-season, including Jackson Willison and Kane Thompson, as well as top try-scorer Sona Taumalolo and All Black Sonny Bill Williams.
Sona Taumalolo was one of the completion’s top try-scorers, which for a prop is incredible, and Sonny Bll Williams is always a class act, whichever team he’s playing for and whatever sport he’s playing. While these losses will prove disappointing, there’s plenty to be encouraged about.
Aaron Cruden had his breakout year last year, emerging as one of the competition’s best players. He scored 139 more points in 2012 than he did in 2011 with his move from Wellington to Waikato.
While the Chiefs will most likely drop off a bit with the loss of star power from 2012, they will still be one of the more competitive teams all year, and you can almost lock them in for finals.
Prediction: 4th (2nd in conference)
Hurricanes
The Hurricanes have been one of those ever-present teams that can never seem to quite put it together correctly. They have made five semi-finals and one final in their 17 year Super Rugby, and while they have has many top teams and players pass through, they have never been able to break through for a championship.
Now they seem to be rebuilding again, and they most certainly have some good pieces to do it with. Arguably the brightest young star last year was Beauden Barrett, who managed to get a few All Black caps under his belt despite New Zealand’s incredible depth at his position.
Another one to watch for will be Andre Taylor, who led the competition in try-scoring with Bjorn Basson in 2012, and is poised to do better than his 10 2012 tries in 2013.
Taylor is also poised to earn his first All Black caps this year if he can keep his superb form up, and was probably unlucky to not win some last year.
Along with these two, the Hurricanes have a plethora of strong players such as Conrad Smith, Cory Jane and Julian Savea, rounding out a very strong backline.
However, the forwardline is where the Hurricanes lack. While they have some strong players such as Dane Coles, Victor Vito and Chris Eaton, the Hurricanes will need more of an All Black presence in their pack to contend for the Super Rugby title.
Until then, they may find themselves continuing to warble around the edge of the playoffs like they have been for so many years.
Prediction: 9th (3rd in conference)
Highlanders
The Highlanders are similar to the Hurricanes, an ever-present team never making much of a dent on the Super Rugby landscape.
In their Super Rugby campaign, also of 17 years, they have reached four semi-finals and one final. And similarly to the Hurricanes, they are also doing their own rebuilding, with a little less effectivity.
They did make some good off-season pickups in 2011 World Cup stars Ma’a Monu, Tony Woodcock and Brad Thorn. Their combined 224 games of All Black experience and 329 games of Super Rugby experience will bolster the Highlanders’ largely youthful lineup.
Speaking of, that largely youthful lineup includes players such as Hosea Gear, Aaron Smith, Ben Smith and Colin Slade, all highly regarded players with All Black experience. They also have plenty of strong role player such as Jamie Mackintosh, Jarrad Hoeta, Nasi Manu and captain Andrew Hore rounding out a strong team.
Perhaps in a few years, after the team have been around each other for a bit longer (and control their injury troubles) they can be the strong team Otago and the new Forsyth Barr Stadium deserves.
Prediction: 11th (4th in conference)
Blues
The Blues are the opposite of the past two teams. Over the years, they have been very successful, winning three championships, making one other and two other semi-finals.
However, it will probably be a few years before the Blues are again competitive. While they do have some good pieces, many of them are around or over 30, such as Kevin Mealamu, Ali Williams and Piri Weepu, and will soon not be the productive test players they once were.
This year, the Blues will truly need to wring the cloth, and get the most out of every player they have. While they did make some positive additions such as serviceable backs Chris Noakes and Jackson Willison, who could both one day play test rugby, these additions were overshadowed by their significant amount of firepower that left Auckland this offseason.
Gareth Anscombe, Daniel Braid, Michael Hobbs, Jerome Kaino, Alby Mathewson, Lachie Munro, Hadleigh Parkes, Benson Stanley, Isaia Toeava, Tony Woodcock, Ma’a Nonu and Rudi Wulf are just a few of the names lost to the Blues this offseason.
Unfortunately for the Blues, they will have a short-handed team for most of the year, and they will need plenty of their ITM elevated players to step up and become Super Rugby players this season.
Prediction: 12th (5th in conference)
Sylvester
Guest
As a mainlander, I'd like the Highlanders to do well, but the jury is out on a couple of their high profile new recruits. Nonu added nothing to the Blues and Thorn is no spring chicken. They should expect quality from Woodcock however.
Neuen
Roar Rookie
Spreafing your player pool evenly has its disadvantages and advantages.
Pogo
Guest
...and they still finished higher than 9th. 11th is definitely a bit pessimistic.
all7days
Roar Guru
Last year their team was not as good....
mania
Guest
jerry - agree, nonu is a great player but some of younger guys at the canes did say that he (and piri and jane) was a distraction at training. but it wasnt anything malicious just clowning around and being immature. a coach with with the right personality could've handled it. not sure whose side to take on the blues vs nonu. dont care they're a bunch of jafa's anyways :) hore is a professional. the guys i spoke to at the canes had nothing but praise to say about hore. he wasnt disruptive, in fact some days he wouldnt say a thing and just got on with it.
Jerry
Guest
Got nothing against Hore, but Nonu deserves nothing but scorn for the way he left the Blues in the lurch (and from all accounts he was a bit of a goose to younger players at the Canes too).
mania
Guest
jerry - how about hore and nonu that got dropped?
Jerry
Guest
Well, good for them. But I'll be supporting the guys who stayed like Conrad Smith or Cory Jane (well, I'll be supporting his assistant coaching role). And, for what it's worth (which is nothing, I realise) I'll be supporting whoever plays against the Highlanders.
mania
Guest
yeah agree, ardie savea in based on ITM form is going to be a great find. hope canes hold onto him . ardie is just as fast and strong as his bro, has an insatiable appetite for the the action and has a nose for following the play and turning up in support. its his fitness and his constantly looking for action and following the ball that has me impressed. kinda of like the tenacity of a joshKronfeld coupled with athletic ability like michaelJones. no not saying he's as good as the iceman but he has the potential. i just hope they dont get him to bulk up. he did get owned by some of the bigger players last year but a bit of brains (some judo training) will teach him not to get caught by the fat boys.
Sylvester
Guest
The Crusaders backline was a massive letdown last year (apart from two games near the end where it appeared they were starting to kick into gear). They will need two things they didn't have last year. 1. A fully fit Dan Carter 2. Israel Dagg to finally show some consistent Super form. McCaw will be a loss, but a backrow of Read, Todd and Whitelock (G or L) would satisfy most teams.
Sylvester
Guest
I heard this last year. They started well (as they did the year previous) and ultimately tanked. I do think they'll do better than 11th though.
Sylvester
Guest
Jerry, these guys didn't want to play for the Canes, it's as simple as that. Hammett axing senior players and alienating the likes of Gear was his own doing.
Strap
Guest
This conference is too hard to pick any of these teams could knock the other over on any given day. I think the Saders will make the Finals because they travel better than any other team in the comp, I am picking either the Canes or Chiefs to be the other kiwi team in the Finals because they appear more settled then either the Clan or the blues. I could be, and probably am, completely wrong though. ;)
Samvandamn
Guest
Kurt Baker has suffered a long term injury. Looks like the Crusaders are rushing Zac Guildford back anywayz.
Kane
Roar Guru
My girlfriends dad's quite high up in Auckland rugby and he said a lot of people up there weren't happy with the way things turned out, I never understood why though. Thanks
Jerry
Guest
Nonu basically went to the NZRU and said "I wanna stay in NZ but don't want to play for the Blues" (despite a verbal commitment to John Kirwan which lead to him not protecting other midfielders and subsequently losing them in the draft) and the NZRU bent over backwards to accommodate him. They cancelled his current contract (which also cancelled the Blues contract), signed him up to a new one and let him sign with the Highlanders. From the comments at the time, it was easy to deduce he'd been negotiating with the Highlanders already (despite claims otherwise).
Kane
Roar Guru
How did Joseph get Nonu if he was contracted elsewhere?
sesenta y cuatro
Roar Pro
So true. I think I could back every word you said. After achieving what he has achieved with the Highlanders, it should be expected that Joseph could do better with a few warhorses like Woodcock, Thorn and Nonu. And whereas the Hurricanes were softer in the forwards during the early stages of 2012, no doubt they got wiser, more experienced (particularly youngsters like Goodes, Shields or Tomaga-Allen) and harder towards the end. This will only improve with people like Ben Franks. It's an old cliche that the Hurricanes lack forward power but how deep has the author investigated the issue?
sesenta y cuatro
Roar Pro
I cannot believe this is a preview of the kiwi conference. Not a single word about Piutau? Not even a mention of Ardie Savea? What about Charlie Ngatai, Baden Kerr or Kurt Baker?
Gavin Fernie
Guest
As a foreigner who has enjoyed both the All Black and Crusader style of rugby hugely in the last decade, highlighted by the superb displays in 2005 by the All Blacks against Woodward's army, and a good few years of Crusader's Super rugby successes, this year in the Super 15 NZ Conference is particularly interesting. The Crusaders have not won the Super Competition for many years, and coming second is not what the Crusaders franchise is all about. True, they have performed heroics in the face of great adversity, and got pretty close to winning the Super Title, during their 'lean'spell, but it is time they won the bloody thing again. Without McCaw is a big factor, and as Spiro points out, it is not only the consistent class of McCaw on the field, his influence off the field is a significant factor in the Crusaders DNA. Equally true, no one man is indispensable, and the greatest flyhalf of them all, Daniel Carter is still around. Kieran Read has matured into a top class player and captain, and on paper the squad is well balanced. Can the Chiefs repeat their 2012 feat? The loss of SBW to the WWBoxing Circus and other pursuits is a telling factor. A fit Richard Kahui would be a big plus. The Highlanders look far better than Spiro's low on the totem pole prediction, and the surprise package might just be the Blues. Back in South Africa, the Stormers look promising, and the ever brooding Bulls are on the way back, but appeat to lack depth. The Sharks also look good. One of these three should feature in the playoffs, with the other three spots up for grabs between the Crusaders, the Chiefs and perhaps the Reds or the Brumbies. Watch White and the Brumbies for a surprise outsider role.