Derby Day preview: Group 1 preview and selections

Three are three Group 1’s on offer tomorrow at Randwick, with prohibitive ‘red’ odds on offer about each favourite.

You’ll get just over double your money for combining them in a multi, which is not really my go. But it could be an easy way to turn one house into two, as Weekend Hussler’s trainer Clinton McDonald used to say before his champion stepped out.

Black Caviar is the headline act, as she has been everywhere she goes for several years now. If she starts in the TJ Smith, It will be only her second run in Sydney, having previously taken out this race in 2011, the scene of arguably her greatest triumph.

Yesterday, Roar editor Tristan Rayner posed the question of whether the great mare is a betting proposition in the race.

Factors that have us seeing fractionally better odds than usual are: the possible slow track, which she’ll run on if it’s a six (imagine the pressure on the track curator to keep it that way if it starts to edge toward a seven later in the day!), opposition tactics preventing Luke Nolen from finding a gap from barrier one, and her lack of experience racing clockwise.

I’m not sure any of that will matter, in fact I’m sure it won’t, but the unasked question of the week is this: have we seen the last of Black Caviar?

Despite the weather forecast suggesting a track that will be in suitable condition for her to race, recent fluctuations in Sydney weather must prepare us for a situation where the track condition is downgraded to a slow seven or worse.

If this is the case, punters wanting to have a look at her large, magnificent frame will have to visit the stalls, because they won’t be seeing her on the track.

Talk has been getting stronger of a return visit to Royal Ascot for Black Caviar, this time on opening day for the King’s Stand. If this is the path chosen by connections, as the strong mail is suggesting, it’s doubtful she’ll run again beforehand.

As we know, the champion racehorse of our time didn’t take well to the travel last time around.

As has been well documented, almost everything that could go wrong, did. Trainer Peter Moody has since said that under the same circumstances, he wouldn’t run her again.

We can’t rule out the possibility, or even the likelihood, of things going wrong once more. International travel is no easy feat for a finely tuned thoroughbred, and can’t be taken for granted.

In Black Caviar’s favour this time is that she’ll only have had two or three runs in our summer and autumn period, coming off a 34-week break. Previously, she was coming off eight runs over three mini-preps with only the bare spell in-between times.

If she does travel all the way over to England, whether she races or not, she’ll surely be sent to mate with Frankel, and her racing days will be done.

Hopefully my fears are unfounded, and she’ll be in the mounting yard come 5pm on Saturday, ready to take out the Australian record of 15 Group 1 wins. But we should prepare ourselves for the opposite just in case.

Bel Sprinter is the obvious pick for second in Sydney’s greatest weight-for-age sprint after his blitzkrieg in the Galaxy a fortnight ago, and hopefully Hay List is back close to his best and can invoke memories of the last time he took it to Black Caviar in this race.

TJ Smith Selections: 1. Black Caviar 2. Bel Sprinter 3. Hay List 4. Sea Siren

Overreach will be looking to become the seventh horse to back up a Golden Slipper win with a Sires Produce victory.

Importantly, trainer Gai Waterhouse has done exactly this with her last three Slipper winners, and there seems no reason why she won’t do it a fourth with this brilliant filly.

An extra 200m wouldn’t have made much difference last week, and I don’t see how it can this time.

Guelph is the runner behind Overreach from the Slipper you want to be on at place odds, or even a win bet at value.

Champollion didn’t beat much in the Ballieu but did it in style. Peter Moody is having a throw at the stumps with A Man Up trying to win a Group 1 at its second start, and he might be worth keeping an eye on.

Sires Produce Selections: 1. Overreach 2. Guelph 3. Champollion 4. A Man Up

The other Group 1 is the AJC Derby, a race that’s often produced a winner which has gone on to produce great racetrack feats.

It would be a brave man to bet against It’s a Dundeel doing both of these things.

His win in the Randwick Guineas was spectacular in its ease and style, but the follow-up victory in the Rosehill Guineas was truly breathtaking. Almost every good judge immediately stamped him as a future WFA contender, and few were lining up to disagree.

Phillipi won the Tulloch like a good horse, and a bright future for him seems assured. He’s yet to run a bad race in his short career, and won’t be doing so here.

Kingdoms ran honestly in the Rosehill Guineas, and is bred to run the trip right out. Bass Straight seems a dead-set stayer who might provide huge value for the multiples.

AJC Derby Selections: 1. It’s a Dundeel 2. Phillipi 3. Kingdoms 4. Bass Straight