I’m not going to produce any fancy stats, reach for the usual bag of omens or even point at Queensland’s ageing team of Origin champions.
But I am predicting a Blues win at ANZ Stadium tonight on the strength that ‘enough is enough’.
The maroon Marauders have won seven series straight and the locals have had to contend with a gutful of misery. You can see it in their steely blue eyes – enough is enough.
We’ve got an L-plate coach in Laurie Daley, an Origin great in his own right, but I am supremely confident that the new (cool, calm but calculated) approach he brings to the NSW team will reap an immediate dividend.
Love him or loathe him, Daley’s predecessor, Ricky Stuart, got the Blue Brothers together. He galvanised them into a rugged, fighting machine that thumbed its collective noses at reputations but lost last year’s series by a solitary field goal.
That really hurt. NSW was the better-performed team over the three-game series but the history books will forever say they were not good enough.
Now it is Daley’s turn at the helm and I have been impressed with his approach to game No 1. He is supremely confident in the men he has chosen and that confidence will count for plenty in the heat of battle.
The odds are that this won’t be a fancy scoreline in the Blues’ favour. It doesn’t have to be.
But a first-up win on home territory will surely strike dread into the heart of Queensland, its champion players and way-too smug supporters, especially as there will be another game in Sydney be it the decider, or otherwise.
The home ground advantage in Origin can never be overstated.
I think NSW has picked a team that can do the job.
There is an experienced core of Origin campaigners who are hurting badly from the string of defeats and it is melding with four exciting debutants (Blake Ferguson, James Maloney, Andrew Fifita and Josh Reynolds) in a series opener that makes the mouth water.
Plenty of critics have conducted a personal hate session on Blues’ half Mitchell Pearce on this website but he deserves his jumper on club form, and it’s up to challengers such as Adam Reynolds to take it away from him.
Let’s face it: NSW does not need a rabbit in the spotlight in a game of such importance. Adam’s time will surely come, he certainly has loads of potential.
Pearce’s combination with newcomer James Maloney will be closely watched and indeed, NSW hopes will swing largely on how the pair measures up to Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston.
But there are other Blues who will need to be closely watched, especially by the Maroons.
New winger Blake Ferguson has outrageous skills in attack and defence. He will be fired up to produce something very special in his debut and I think he will do so.
The same applies to benchmen Andrew Fifita and Josh Reynolds. Fifita is quickly developing into an unstoppable force in rugby league while Reynolds is an extremely rugged and niggly customer who plays his best football when the going gets fierce.
Jarryd Hayne’s presence at fullback will also trouble the Maroons. If he brings his A-Game, attacking sparks will fly!
Early on, I’m tipping a surprise blitz out wide from the New South Welshmen before they settle into an up-the-middle grind orchestrated by Robbie Farah, Paul Gallen, James Tamou and Co.
Queensland will rely heavily on centres Inglis and Hodges for their attacking inspiration but will have Josh Morris and Michael Jennings in their faces all night.
Billy Slater, at fullback, will be hustled and bustled all night and I won’t be surprised if he gets frustrated into error.
The NSW boys will have a huge home crowd at their backs and that factor might squeeze a vital penalty or two from the whistle-blowers.
But deep, deep down, the Blues will be driven by the events of the past seven years as they strive to halt Queensland’s run and earn themselves a slice of their own history.
Enough is enough. Blues by 4. Surely, that will be enough.
Boatman of River Styx
Guest
Congrats, Tim. Your system is sheer genius. Find something that hasn't won for 7 years and double up your bet. Bring back the Bears and Ouroene! George Chiotis salutes you!!
Bearfax
Guest
mUst admit I'm surprised NSW won it. As I suspected, the forwards for NSW dominated and that's why they won. But QLD were comng back and I'm not so sure NSW will win another this series.. But miracles happen.
Nick
Roar Guru
Yes, probs not the best to tease Hayne.
Nick
Roar Guru
The simple fact is that the NRL would rather even only 50K at ANZ stadium than 43K at the SFS. More people, more revenue, more money for the clubs. NSW sold off games to Melbourne before the Olympics, for reasons entirely irrelevant to the Olympics...namely to push the case for the establishment of a Melbourne team, and since 1998, to reinforce rugby league support in Melbourne. While ANZ stadium could be better, and yes, you are all right, Sydney could do with a 50-60K seat rectangular seat stadium, its still the best place to host Origin. 70000 will turn up tonight, that wouldnt have been able to turn up at the SFS. The fact that 70000 turn up, means that there are many people who will put up with the awful sightlines and the nose bleed seat and completely rubbish your arguments further. Damoinaus, I beg you to explain to me how the Olympics has actually contributed to QLD winning seven in a row? Its baffling and its grossly offensive to both teams. It diminishes the quality of the QLD team, and it provides a cheap and demeaning excuse for the NSW team. Both would happily tell you that while having home ground advantage is nice, or playing in a deafening home city atmosphere is awesome, it is not the reason teams win/lose games. Melbourne is a neutral venue, and Queensland have no problem winning there. Why shouldn't NSW? Answer: in the past seven years, NSW have not been as good. And they would freely admit that, instead of carrying on with some low-brow whinging session. As much as I dont like the NSW team, they are generally gracious losers and good sports. ANZ stadium turns into reality what was only a pipe dream for rugby league. 70K+ turning up to rugby league in Sydney. You can thank the Olympics for that. You can also thank the Olympics for 100,000 turning up to Origin in 2000. Enlightened much? :p
Luke
Guest
Of course it is. Is this the first of the crying? Qlders, Worse than the English!!!
Mango Jack
Guest
Agreed
Boatman of River Styx
Guest
I take your point, but if you rated the combined teams 1 to 26, Queensland have the top 5 players.
Mango Jack
Guest
I was talking about your reference to the relative number of Bunnies in QLD and NSW teams and how that favours QLD. The only Souths player you mentioned just then is Inglis, which is my point exactly - he is is the only top flight bunny in either side. McQueen and Teo would not make the NSW side
nopuritan
Guest
not sold out???!!! have you seen the NSWRL website today? they claim 83000 for tonight's game! not an empty seat in the house...apparently!
Boatman of River Styx
Guest
But look at the most important positions...Hayne or Slater? Smith or Farah? Cronk or Pearce? Maloney or Thurston? Inglis or Jennings? Black Caviar or More Joyous? Queensland or NSW? Deep down, you know I'm right...
BluesClues
Guest
I'm not sure about Klein after the Anzac test but at least there'll be another ref to help him out.
Boatman of River Styx
Guest
I think you are right and Tim is wrong.
Mango Jack
Guest
It wouldn't be origin without a good dose of maroon paranoia!
Nomenclature
Guest
I think they have picked the right officials for Game 1 NSW home game
Nomenclature
Guest
But actually Queenslands turn to host Game 1
damoinaus
Roar Pro
Yeah the SFS is ok...just a tad bit further than comfortable walking distance from the city I reckon. It would cost billions, but I reckon you could sink all of the lines leading up to Central station underground, and build a 60,000 seater rectangular stadium right there on top of that new space. Billions..
Bearfax
Guest
But for Smith, I think NSW can match QLD in the forwards and possibly be better than them. But in the backs I think QLD have a distinct advantage with the four present best Australian backs in their team in Slater, Ingliss, Thurston and Cronk. If the NSW forwards can dominate throughout the game, they have a chance of winning. Anything less and its QLD by 10-12
NickF
Guest
+1. I will get a better view at home then up high at Homebush.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I hope you're right, Tim!
josh
Roar Rookie
Is that what the SFS is? A Suncorp style stadium smack bang in old Sydney town?