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If being likened to “Dad’s Army” because their average age is just under 29 is Queensland’s biggest problem, then they’re travelling pretty well going into State of Origin I.
I don’t think Billy Slater and Cameron Smith, both 29, and 30-year-old Johnathan Thurston would be missing out on selection for NSW, were they eligible.
The Blues appear to have a real shot at winning the series this year, based mainly on the fact they’ve got two home games, but I wouldn’t be putting all my faith in that.
I reckon they’re going to find themselves in a position where they have to win Game 2 in Brisbane to keep the series alive.
It’s shaping up as a close game at ANZ Stadium tonight, but I like Queensland to just win.
Why? Let’s start with Jarryd Hayne.
There seem to be a lot of people getting excited about what they see as his potential to cut Queensland up from fullback, but the fact is Josh Dugan would have been picked ahead of him in that position had he been playing rather than watching for most of the early rounds.
And Brett Stewart would have been picked ahead of him too, had he been fit.
Hayne has been a great asset for NSW playing on the wing, but in an Origin game there is a big chance he will be brought undone at fullback by the brilliant Queensland playmakers.
He has improved recently, but Hayne still has issues with his positional play, and he is never going to be at greater risk of being caught out than in an Origin game.
When the Maroons are attacking close to the NSW line I can just see Thurston or Cooper Cronk throwing a great long ball that results in a try because Hayne is trapped too far to one side and can’t cover.
And there is just as much possibility of it coming as the result of a grubber kick into the in-goal from Thurston, Cronk or Smith.
NSW have picked four debutants – Blake Ferguson, James Maloney, Andrew Fifita and Josh Reynolds – which is risky.
I would have picked Ferguson, and I can understand why Fifita has been included, because his stats are incredible. I’m not so sure about Maloney and Reynolds.
And why are they both there anyway?
This obsession the Blues have with picking a utility on the bench has got me shaking my head. How much game time is Reynolds going to get if everything is going well with Robbie Farah at hooker and Maloney and Mitchell Pearce in the halves?
The choice of Reynolds on the bench is similar to the choice of Jamie Buhrer on the bench for game one of last year’s series – a waste of a spot.
Queensland don’t do it – and they’ve won seven series in a row.
NSW had to pick Mitchell Pearce at halfback. They had no other option; it is too soon for Adam Reynolds. Pearce has been in pretty good form for Sydney Roosters, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to suddenly start putting his stamp on Origin.
The fact is the Blues just don’t have the quality in the halves that the Maroons do, and the recent game between the Roosters and Melbourne, in which the storm successfully pressured the kicking games of both Pearce and Maloney, was a warning for the Blues.
I’m not convinced Maloney is up to Origin. I’m not convinced Todd Carney will ever be up to it, either, but after he played two games in last year’s series NSW would have been better off going with him again here.
Tim Grant should be on the bench instead of Reynolds. Greg Bird can cover five-eighth, and Luke Lewis could have been trained up as an emergency hooker.
And just back to age for a moment – NSW captain Paul Gallen is 31 and hasn’t played since May 5 because of a knee injury. That is hardly the ideal preparation.
You will note that in tipping Queensland I’m spending most of my time pointing out what I believe are flaws in the NSW side, rather than the strengths among the Maroons.
But do I really need to talk about Queensland? They covered for the retirement of Darren Lockyer by bringing Cronk into the starting side, and now they’ll cover for Petero Civoniceva’s retirement by starting with David Shillington.
Shillington has started a couple of Origin games before, and on top of his seven appearances for Queensland he has played 14 Tests. He’ll be fine.
NSW have won the last two games played at tonight’s venue, ANZ Stadium, but it should be noted each was the middle game of the series, with the Maroons leading 1-0.
It’s possible for even the best of teams to lose that little bit of intensity knowing a loss isn’t going to cost them the series and they can go back home to try to win it in game three.
Queensland will be a different team in a series opener at ANZ Stadium.
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