If being likened to “Dad’s Army” because their average age is just under 29 is Queensland’s biggest problem, then they’re travelling pretty well going into State of Origin I.
I don’t think Billy Slater and Cameron Smith, both 29, and 30-year-old Johnathan Thurston would be missing out on selection for NSW, were they eligible.
The Blues appear to have a real shot at winning the series this year, based mainly on the fact they’ve got two home games, but I wouldn’t be putting all my faith in that.
I reckon they’re going to find themselves in a position where they have to win Game 2 in Brisbane to keep the series alive.
It’s shaping up as a close game at ANZ Stadium tonight, but I like Queensland to just win.
Why? Let’s start with Jarryd Hayne.
There seem to be a lot of people getting excited about what they see as his potential to cut Queensland up from fullback, but the fact is Josh Dugan would have been picked ahead of him in that position had he been playing rather than watching for most of the early rounds.
And Brett Stewart would have been picked ahead of him too, had he been fit.
Hayne has been a great asset for NSW playing on the wing, but in an Origin game there is a big chance he will be brought undone at fullback by the brilliant Queensland playmakers.
He has improved recently, but Hayne still has issues with his positional play, and he is never going to be at greater risk of being caught out than in an Origin game.
When the Maroons are attacking close to the NSW line I can just see Thurston or Cooper Cronk throwing a great long ball that results in a try because Hayne is trapped too far to one side and can’t cover.
And there is just as much possibility of it coming as the result of a grubber kick into the in-goal from Thurston, Cronk or Smith.
NSW have picked four debutants – Blake Ferguson, James Maloney, Andrew Fifita and Josh Reynolds – which is risky.
I would have picked Ferguson, and I can understand why Fifita has been included, because his stats are incredible. I’m not so sure about Maloney and Reynolds.
And why are they both there anyway?
This obsession the Blues have with picking a utility on the bench has got me shaking my head. How much game time is Reynolds going to get if everything is going well with Robbie Farah at hooker and Maloney and Mitchell Pearce in the halves?
The choice of Reynolds on the bench is similar to the choice of Jamie Buhrer on the bench for game one of last year’s series – a waste of a spot.
Queensland don’t do it – and they’ve won seven series in a row.
NSW had to pick Mitchell Pearce at halfback. They had no other option; it is too soon for Adam Reynolds. Pearce has been in pretty good form for Sydney Roosters, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to suddenly start putting his stamp on Origin.
The fact is the Blues just don’t have the quality in the halves that the Maroons do, and the recent game between the Roosters and Melbourne, in which the storm successfully pressured the kicking games of both Pearce and Maloney, was a warning for the Blues.
I’m not convinced Maloney is up to Origin. I’m not convinced Todd Carney will ever be up to it, either, but after he played two games in last year’s series NSW would have been better off going with him again here.
Tim Grant should be on the bench instead of Reynolds. Greg Bird can cover five-eighth, and Luke Lewis could have been trained up as an emergency hooker.
And just back to age for a moment – NSW captain Paul Gallen is 31 and hasn’t played since May 5 because of a knee injury. That is hardly the ideal preparation.
You will note that in tipping Queensland I’m spending most of my time pointing out what I believe are flaws in the NSW side, rather than the strengths among the Maroons.
But do I really need to talk about Queensland? They covered for the retirement of Darren Lockyer by bringing Cronk into the starting side, and now they’ll cover for Petero Civoniceva’s retirement by starting with David Shillington.
Shillington has started a couple of Origin games before, and on top of his seven appearances for Queensland he has played 14 Tests. He’ll be fine.
NSW have won the last two games played at tonight’s venue, ANZ Stadium, but it should be noted each was the middle game of the series, with the Maroons leading 1-0.
It’s possible for even the best of teams to lose that little bit of intensity knowing a loss isn’t going to cost them the series and they can go back home to try to win it in game three.
Queensland will be a different team in a series opener at ANZ Stadium.
Evan James
Guest
Unless Daley wakes up to the fact that our useless halves failed to capitalise on the dominant forward display by NSW, goodbye game 2. I have no doubt Carney and Sutton would have cut them to shreds behind that go forward by our pack which deserved much better than 2 tries.
Basha
Guest
Qld need to have more blokes that can kick for for field position,we lacked it NSW excelled at it, that's why we lost.they had us on the back foot after every kick.I'm no expert but that's what I seen??
Jack
Guest
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Wrong. Hehehe. Love articles that state 100% something will happen, not why should or 'good' chances. Being certain of sport, and particular teams or persons winning, is stupid. A sport is something where two opposing sides or players face out and both have an equal chance of winning mathematically. THerefore, saying something is 100% is just stupid. (two being a single game of sport obviously, you have more then two in competitions
SuperEel22
Roar Guru
Well, this fell flat on its face.
doubledutch
Roar Pro
It's simple... They have a better team period!
nopuritan
Guest
The key factors in tonights win to Qld will be: 1. Laurie Daley - virgin coach 2. Jarrod Hayne- inconsistent 3. James Maloney - a good player but picked as a passenger (just there to keep MP "calm") 4. Mitchell Pearce- lacks "calm"; and attacking skills; and a kicking game 5. Robbie Farah - deluded...thinks he is Australia's best hooker 6. Blake Ferguson - debutant and known imploder - a bad mix 7. Paul Gallen - 31 years old, hasn't played for 6 weeks, at best a journeyman. 8. Anthony Watmough - too slow, and he plays for Manly (a bad look that one) There you go NSWRL, another raft of changes to pencil in for 2014. Anyone know the address of the NSW selection panel? The QRL has asked me to pass on their thanks.
Bazzio
Roar Guru
Refereeing bias has handed the toads so many hollow "wins" I've lost count. Tonight should be no different, and I remain highly sceptical that the current bunch of ref's are capable of anything remotely resembling fair refereeing. Anytime the roaches win, they've overcome the toads AND the ref's. When the toads win, well, they always have the extra man playing for them (with the whistle), so any win for the toads isn't necessarily because they're any good at all, they just 'whistle-up' a win.
BluesClues
Guest
Qld can expect the same test for Slater and Tate but at least this time there's someone like Fergusson who is a genuine chance at challenging for the high ball.
Greg Prichard
Guest
I'm talking about NSW constantly picking someone to cover hooker, five-eighth and halfback. is that not clear?
The Real NSWelshman
Guest
Jarryd Hayne far more talented than Brett Stewart.............what planet are you on mate. I'm sure that Hayne won't let NSW down but I only wish Stewart was at fullback tonight with Hayne on one wing & Ferguson on the other!! Those 3 would send shivers thru the Queenslanders. Billy Slater & Brett Stewart are miles ahead of any other 'real' fullbacks in this competiton as has been proven by their freakish talents in scoring trys not to mention their defensive qualities & positional play.............look at the number of trys both have scored with Stewart clearly miles in front for the number of games each one has played. Had Stewart not been out of action with the knee reconstructions who knows how many more trys he would have against his name. How many trys has Hayne scored?????
mushi
Roar Guru
Why wouldn't they be utility choices? What is the expert’s version of a utility because it can’t be a back and it can’t be a guy who can play centre?
Frank
Guest
Hayne is not in good form just because he held a few players up over the line. What about the last game against the gold coast he missed tackles that led to tries against penrith he was awful against the roosters he was bad against the bulldogs he was made to look second rate and against st George he saveed a try but was out of position for onother 2 tries. Hayne it seems can play 8 bad games in a row then does a couple of good things in a game and the media call him a superstar. Not to mention his stupid arguing with the refs while a try is being scored he truly is one of the most overrated players in the game. There's alot of other mistakes he makes to many to mention.
Greg Prichard
Guest
I wouldn't call slater and hunt utilities. They're backs, and berrigan could play centre as well. The point is Queensland don't have a mentality that "we must have a player who can cover hooker, five-eighth and maybe halfback" every year, even if that player isn't necessarily good enough to be there. Slater, Hunt, Cronk, even Berrigan at his peak, you would rather have them in than out.
The Greatest Game Of All
Guest
Smiths kicking game, Slater catching the ball on the full almost every time, Inglis, Thurstons show and go and goal kicking.
mushi
Roar Guru
06 berrigan 07 berrigan 08 marsh and slater 09 Hunt 10 Cronk 11 Cronk
The Greatest Game Of All
Guest
Pretty sure Slater and Karmichael have played from the bench aswell.
The eye
Guest
Jarryd Hayne won't let us down,no way.Far more talented than Brett Stewart,a glorified Terry Lamb,and with a 5/8 who can supply good ball such as Maloney,expect quite a few planes touching down on the Qld runways tonight !
PuntPal
Roar Pro
Hayne is in top form...has the author of this article seen Hayne play this year??? He will be instrumental in NSW win tonight, all over him for Man of the Match
Greg Prichard
Guest
Reynolds is a good player, but he will never be in the class of the three players you mentioned.
Greg Prichard
Guest
I'm talking about his positional play at fullback. He's been an Origin genius on the wing. He might turn out to be an Origin genius at fullback as well, but Queensland will give him a thorough examination in the areas in which he's been lacking.