With all the hype over Fawad Ahmed’s impending citizenship and seemingly certain addition to the Ashes squad, it appears many pundits already have his name pencilled in the XI for the first Test at Trent Bridge.
Given there is as much chance of Australia playing two spinners in England as there is of New Zealand’s Chris Martin hitting a Test hundred, selecting Ahmed would mean consigning Nathan Lyon to drinks duties.
But is Nathan Lyon really doing so poorly that he deserves to be dumped for the latest spinning flavour of the month?
Lyon is coming off nine wickets and his best ever figures in his last Test match (including the prized wicket of Sachin Tendulkar in both innings), taken in a country that has proved a graveyard for Australian spinners over the years.
In fact, his 15 wickets over three matches of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy is the best series haul by an Australian spinner in India in over 40 years, a better tally than even S.K. Warne ever managed.
Considering the career-ending mauling that Indian batsmen usually provide for Aussie spinners, 15 wickets at an average of 37.33 is something of a miracle.
In three Tests alone, he already has the fourth most wickets on Indian soil for Australian spin bowlers, behind such luminaries as Benaud, Warne and Mallet.
His career record is easily superior to any other Aussie spinner in the post-Warne era, and at just 25 years of age he is still developing the nuances and mental strength that only prolonged Test experience can provide.
But this means little to an Australian cricketing media and public that is desperate for the kind of headline-grabbing, Pommy-bamboozling performances that they grew accustomed to from Warne.
Critics have been quick to jump on Lyon’s inability to rip through opposition batting line-ups in the last innings of a match, but as just one cog in an Australian bowling unit, the blame cannot solely lie with him.
Even taking into account his fourth innings shortcomings, Lyon has a better average than contemporaries Daniel Vettori, Sunil Narine, Ajantha Mendis and Monty Panesar.
Being a no-frills spinner with a decent record and youth on his side apparently stacks up poorly against the mystery of the unknown that is Fawad Ahmed.
Ahmed’s three Sheffield Shield appearances that yielded 16 wickets are definitely promising, but hardly worthy of an instant promotion to the Test team, despite the praise of Damien Martyn, Cameron White and James Hopes, among others.
But Australia’s spinning stocks have been so low for so long that the media have been quick to jump on Ahmed, blowing up ‘promising’ to ‘potentially Ashes-winning’.
Being a practitioner of the sexy, dark art that is leg spin certainly hasn’t hurt Ahmed’s appeal to the spin-starved cricketing public.
But ‘promising’ will only get you so far (as too many recent Australian spinners have found out to their peril), and Ahmed needs to continue taking wickets to oust Lyon as our premier tweaker.
The upcoming Australia A matches in England are Ahmed’s perfect opportunity to press his case, but let’s not write off Lyon yet.
He is the incumbent spinner, is in decent form, and his performances deserve a prolonged shot at the English batsmen before he is the next discard on the pile of forgotten spinners, so why don’t we give him that chance?
Keiron Costello
Roar Rookie
While 575 wickets at less than 30 sounds nice, I think I'd settle for 200 wickets at around 30 given our recent spin horror stories!
Keiron Costello
Roar Rookie
I agree that Ahmed is long odds to play the first couple of tests, but considering it seems likely he'll be elevated into the Ashes squad as soon as possible (remembering the selector left a spot on the touring squad vacant), he will get a couple of Ashes practice matches in addition to his Australia A games to show his wares. And with Lyon only getting 15 overs in the recently completed match against Scotland (his first match at any level since the 4th test in India), I fear he may be coming into the Ashes a tad underdone. This leaves the door ajar for a massive push to get Ahmed into the team if Lyon starts the series slowly.
Aakash ATGM Bhat
Roar Rookie
Ahmed cud be the aussie imran tahir 'a one match wonder'
Aakash ATGM Bhat
Roar Rookie
Really nice article! loved the chris martin bit but now coming to the point i think selectors are doing the same mistake like they did in the last series when they picked doherty and beer in the team.
Nudge
Guest
Great read and spot on. Is record is pretty solid already and yet he is still 5 years away from being at his best. He has taken 75 wickets in 18 months if he happens to stay in the team for the next 10 years and kept at that pace he will have taken 575 test wickets at an average of about 30 odd or perhaps less. Every one who bags him ( and there is a lot out there) still think the next warne is just around some corner. Get over it we have a quality spinner right now who can only get better
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Ahmed won't have much chance to show his wares because at most he can play 2 Aus A games, totalling a maximum 7 days of cricket (assuming there's no rain in England!). Even if he does manage to get selected for both those games ahead of Lyon and/or Agar he'll be lucky to get maybe 40 overs of bowling in total. And that bowling will be against a minnow nation in Ireland and one of the weakest teams in 2nd division county cricket - Gloucester. He's going to have to do something pretty extraordinary in those 40 overs against inferior opposition to convince the selectors to dump the incumbent spinner Lyon in favour of him. I would rate his chances of playing in this Ashes series about 10/1.
Felix
Guest
Good read, thanks. I'd have to refute the defence of his poor 4th innings though, as a spinner his job is to make hay on days 4 and 5. I agree that Wade had dudded him, but perhaps Lyon could have gone on and create a few more chances as well.
Ahmed
Roar Rookie
If fawad strings few good performances the whole nation will be calling for lyon's head. In unfriendly conditions the competition thing doesn't works. He needs great amount of security heading in. If not for wade he would have had a 10-fer and few more wickets. Again, who was the last Australian to pick a 10 wicket haul ? Dhoni made 200 , he would have been held under 100 by lyon if not for wade. Surprisingly with a batting avg of <25 and <40 in ODI and Tests respectively, Wade has gone under the radar. Not that he keeps well.
Keiron Costello
Roar Rookie
It makes you wish Mike Hussey was still around! Our totals would be 100+ runs better just from his skill in batting with the tail. If Watson bats 6 (which looks likely at this stage), I can't see him hanging around with the tail with even a quarter of the impact as Hussey.
Keiron Costello
Roar Rookie
Wade's a plucky batsman, but if he's costing 2-3 top order wickets a match with drops and missed stumpings, no amount of runs can make up for that.
Keiron Costello
Roar Rookie
In a perfect world Fawad will have a string of good performances for Australia A in the UK and be putting pressure on Lyon to perform better in the Test XI, but not actually replacing him. But it's more likely that a string of good performances will see the press calling for Lyon's head, as prematurely as usual.
Richard L
Guest
About time someone mentioned this Jayden, ten is being conservative! Just keep playing this guy and this team will be rewarded down the track. Warnes first 20 tests were not that spectacular either.
Kris Swales
Expert
He's also a pretty handy bat at 11. Could certainly hang around with a specialist batsman for an hour or so if any of them actually made it that far.
Kris Swales
Expert
Was at that game where Lyon carved up in Delhi, he also had Sachin wrongly given not out for a duck in the first dig, and Dhoni dropped by Wade in the second. If he isn't the first spinner picked for the first two tests at least... well, with this selection panel who knows what will happen. Wade might get picked as a bowling all-rounder with Warner behind the stumps yet.
James T
Guest
Problem in aus is the pitches. If curators prepare some turners the benefits will be two fold: 1. There'll be spinners around who can actually turn the ball, most spinners today should be called slow bowlers. 2. Batsmen will learn how to play the moving ball. On Lyon, as far as offies go he's not doing to bad, and given most test pitches in Australia these days are prepared to last 7 or 8 days, his fourth innings record isn't too bad. Also I'm struggling to remember our last long term spinner before Warne and macgill.
Jayden
Guest
A small thing I did was simply add ten wickets to his tally (if Prior or AB Devilliers was behind the stumps) for the dripped catches he has had missed by Wade (a quick estimation of easy chances His average dropped down to 28, hes just terribly unlucky to have terrible keepers at the stumps
Robert
Guest
Well said.Unfortunately for Lyon he'll go into the first test slightly under done then the knives will sharpened and everyone will be calling for Ahmed even louder.Problem for Lyon in the media's eyes is that he is flamboyant enough for them to continually put him in their papers.Journalists aren't smart enough to write something that actually has merit and they've exhausted all avenues with his former life of a groundsmen story.Warne was loved by the media because he always gave them a pathetic story to write -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Ahmed
Roar Rookie
Finally someone who writes something worth a read. Lyon is developing and getting better , clarke has played a major hand as well. Fawad after playing in spin friendly conditions had an average of 34 which clearly tells a story. He is no warne and may end up destroying any chances we have of winning the ashes. I'd have considered him if he had some county experience. Fast tracking fawad will actually kill the confidence of guys like zampa and agar. But wait , we see warne in fawad. There will be no 2nd warne.