Irish flanker Sean O’Brien can count himself unlucky not to be in the Lions 23 for the first Test against the Wallabies on Saturday at Suncorp.
The tireless six or seven missed out to skipper Sam Warburton and Tom Croft in the starting line-up, then missed out again to Dan Lydiate on the bench.
Otherwise the Lions starting XV is very much the side that turned on the fireworks against the Waratahs last Saturday with the exception of the two wingers – George North and Alex Cuthbert – and ageless centre Brian O’Driscoll.
Missing selection from the Waratahs game are Simon Zebo and Sean Maitland on the wings, though Maitland made the bench, and hamstrung centre Jamie Roberts.
The Lions have a crack side for Saturday where the front-row battle will be one of the highlights, with Benn Robinson, Stephen Moore, and Ben Alexander boasting 180 Wallaby caps between them, far more than the Lions who with Alex Corbisiero, Tom Youngs, and Adam Jones have 115.
The lineout will also be a key factor with Lions specialists Paul O’Connell (198cm), Alun Wyn Jones (196cm), and Croft (198cm) in the XV, and Geoff Parling (201cm) on the bench.
Matching them will be the Wallabies skipper James Horwill at 200cm, Kane Douglas (200cm), and Ben Mowen (195cm), with Rob Simmons on the bench waiting to use his 200cm.
So much will depend on the hookers – Moore and Youngs – feeding their tall timbers. Neither are too crash hot, but the better one on the night will be a major bonus.
Openside flanker Michael Hooper, with Liam Gill on the bench, will give the Wallabies an edge in open play and fetching – both are extremely fast around the park.
Where the Wallabies have a huge advantage will be halfback Will Genia, without peer in world rugby. Lion Mike Phillips is no slouch, but he will have his hands full keeping up with Genia.
Then it gets interesting between the tens, and the centres – James O’Connor, debutant Christian Lealiifano, and Adam Ashley-Cooper pitted against Jonathan Sexton, Jonathan Davies, and the legend O’Driscoll about to wear his 126th cap.
The Lions have the edge there, and on the wings with George North and Alex Cuthbert against the Wallabies Digby Ioane and debutant Israel Folau playing out of his fullback comfort zone.
And the Lions have the edge with the custodians as well – Leigh Halfpenny over Berrick Barnes.
Forwards win Test matches, and that’s where the Wallabies will shine. But the backs make the difference and that’s where the Lions have the advantage.
This will be a close one.
Let’s not have it decided by a last-minute penalty from the whistle of referee Chris Pollock.
Dean Vincent
Guest
Don't think I'll bother watching then......sounds like the Aussies have it all sewn up.
Calum
Guest
Well, anyone with level of analysis embodied by 'Phillips has been repeatedly schooled by Genia' and 'sexton is fine but nothing special' must be something of a savant. Clearly cips is the lions only chance ...
Owen
Guest
I'm shocked O'Brien hasn't been picked. He is a better 8 than heaslip, a better 7 than Warburton , and a much better 6 than Croft, but unfortunately those players are all darlings in the British media while O'Brien is looked down upon as a rough and ready country boy. That he hasn't even made the bench is really rubbing it in. He would wreak havoc with his ball carrying coming on against a tiring team. If the Wallabies can hold up their scrum and maybe even profit from Young's dodgy throwing, I cannot see them loosing. Too much class in the backs, although i think Folau at fullback and Cummins on the wing would have been a better back three.
Pabs
Guest
Yeah you could say the wallabies are favourites. Oh wait....
felix
Guest
Mowen should aim to overpower Croft who is a little short on muscle
David Lord
Expert
No Gary, I have nailed it. I have a lot more confidence in the Wallaby pack than most fans, obviously including yourself. I would be a lot happier if David Pocock and George Smith were there, but what we've got is the best available.
David Lord
Expert
You've answered your own question OJ, Ben Mowen goes to 8 if Wycliff Palu goes down injured again, Liam Gill to 6. And don't underestimate James Horwill. He's ready to play out of his skin after nearly a year layoff with injuries.
Colin N
Guest
He would have gone for Cipriani at 10 and Geraghty at 12. Genuinely.
Derm
Roar Guru
O'Brien is feared by Australia from the WC match where he played somewhat out of position (at the time) at 7 when he had largely played blinside up to that point. Since the WC, however, he has played 7 for Leinster and Ireland in the main. He was highly unlikely to get the 7 slot with Warburton and Tipuric ahead of him. Therefore, only the 6 slot was available as a starting place. Lydiate has done better than him in recent matches in that position. Given O'Brian's utility to cover all three backrow positions, he would have been a better choice on the bench in my view, but unlikely he was going to start.
Calum
Guest
KPM; thanks for that detailed, insightful analysis. Given 'Gatland could have chose anything else', I'd be interested to see who you would have gone with @everyone talking about obrien; I'm sure the wallabies do fear his form from a couple of years ago. Unfortunately he hasn't been in that form for a couple of years really. Even at Leinster he hasn't been quite the presence he was. On this tour he has been poor.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
The choice of Corbisiero is very significant. On the one hand it would allow a very strong scrummaging operation, but what a huge loss to the team's ability in the loose Vunipola is, who was pretty much the key powerhouse carrier until now. That task will have to be performed by Heaslip and lightweight Croft. The Lions' supposed power in the loose is now gone, with only O'Connell providing any heft. The locks too will not be dynamic. What's more, while the Wallaby props may be outscrummaged, they will run the Lions props off their feet. The Wallaby forwards are looming as faster, with higher workrate, and amazingly if anything more powerful. The Lions could have chosen a forward pack to blast the Wallabies to smithereens, but have elected not to. The backline pairing of has-been BOD and mediocre Davies is very low quality, far from the massive threat that Roberts/Tuilagi would have provided. Davies lack of attacking threat should ease Lealiifano's debut. Philips has repeatedly been schooled by Genia, while North, Cuthbert and Halfpenny have hardly troubled the Wallabies' defence in numerous attemps. Sexton is fine but nothing special. In fact the backline is no better than the Welsh assembly. Overall the team is hardly much better than Wales or Ireland. Strange, given that Gatland could have chosen anything else.
David of Canberra
Guest
Absolutely ... Simmons is a poor man's Justin Harrison. Without wishing a food poisoning scare, I hope the rugby gods continue to smile on Peter Kimlin and somehow he gets a run.
Sandy B
Guest
compared to having no specialist 7's in the World Cup!
Turnover
Roar Guru
O'Brien is someone that Australia fear. This was a great outcome for the Wallabies.
Red
Guest
Wallabies pack just need parity and you would give them a shot at winning. Lions should have picked a pack to grind them into the ground in first test.
WRM
Guest
The team is new and should find its best form later on. JOC, Horwill, Folau, Lealiifano and Mowen were not in the team last year so it may take a bit of time for them to be at their best together. I like both teams but Lydiate over O'Brien is a strange call unless he has a niggle. Australia doesnt have a well rounded lose forward in the class of Messam or Vito so Gill is OK on the bench. Would have preferred MMM over Simmons on the bench. For the most part both teams are nearly exactly what I would have picked.
English Dan
Guest
"Adam Jones is clearly a better scrummager, but by crikey he does bugger-all else." Yeah, but the Wobblies will be tired out after a half-and-a-bit of scrummaging against him. Then on comes Cole, who is a very good scrummager, gets around the park with good hands and gets over the ball at the breakdown too. I would avoid knocking on too many balls if I were in a green and yellow shirt, whereas handling erros won't be so much of an issue for the Lions. I think we'll do well at the line-out, too - though Youngs can have off days as thrower (I am a Leicester man and have seen it happen enough times for it to worry me). Very interested to see this Wallaby backline in action, though. Lots of pace and vision - if you guys get on top I wouldn't want to chase the game, I have nightmares about interceptions.
felix
Guest
Warburton vs Hooper should be a great contest,turnovers everywhere
Colin N
Guest
But the Lions won't care if he rips the Wallabies front-row a new one and the Lions can get points and terrtitory for a dominant scrum - the Lions have enough mobility in the pack as it is. If he doesn't dominate then you have Dan Cole on the bench who's much better around the field, particularly at the contact area.
Colin N
Guest
Still would have had an O'Brien, Tipuric, Heaslip back-row. Oh well, such is life. Really don't get having Parling and Lydiate on the bench though. Pleased to see Corbisiero there. Perhaps harsh on Mako but you can see where the Lions are going to target!