It’s the final round of Super Rugby and while the six finalists have been sorted out, where they will finish all comes done to a this cracking set of games.
Some red hot local derbies will round out the season.
The week should start out with a try-fest. The Crusaders have not ruled out the possibility of actually winning the New Zealand conference, but they need to notch a four-try bonus point win to have any chance of that.
Given the way they dismantled the Chiefs last week and the poor defence shown by the Hurricanes, which saw them leak 49 points to the Highlanders, they would be strongly favoured to achieve this.
The outcome of this game will in many ways decide the picture for the rest of the weekend. With a bonus-point win they will put the pressure on the conference-leading Chiefs. A win of any sort and the Reds will lose any chance of a home final. A loss and the Reds will be playing for fourth spot.
Rebels and the Highlanders square off next and the Highlanders have been playing well of late. The Rebels themselves have a lot of players leaving, not least James O’Connor, so they should be up for it. This could be an entertaining encounter if the Highlanders bring the same type of game they did against Wellington
Next it’s the Blues and Chiefs. The Chiefs could find themselves behind the Crusaders on the overall standings going into this game or they could already have the New Zealand conference wrapped up.
The Chiefs could finish anywhere from fourth to first. A win will guarantee a top two spot. A loss by seven or less will guarantee them the New Zealand conference.
With an extra day to prepare and playing an injury-hit Blues team back from South Africa after losing their finals chance last week, they are favourites.
Next up is the Waratahs and Reds. This game is the most interesting of the round for me. The question lies around the intensity that the Reds will bring. Should the Crusaders win they face two prospects:
If they win or lose by seven or less they finish fifth, and will most likely be off to Christchurch to face a rampaging Crusaders outfit. If they lose by more than seven, they will finish sixth and face the likely prospect of an away game against the Brumbies.
As a coach, I know which one of those two games looks more desirable and you might find McKenzie rests a number of his stars and tank this game.
The Force then host the Brumbies and the Brumbies will know whether they are playing for top spot or a potential top two finish. Should the Chiefs win then they can finish second at best. That is if they secure a bonus point win and the Stormers beat the Bulls by more than seven
If the Chiefs lose a win will lock a top two spot but the slim chance of top spot will still exist with a bonus point win.
With the likelihood of a Chiefs win, this game could turn into a tryfest as they try to notch a top two spot.
The Sharks and Kings will square off and hats off to the Kings for a great debut season. The Sharks will be favoured to win here. The Kings are likely to finish last but they have put in some great performances for a debut season. When they become the Lion Kings next season they should improve further
The last game of the round and it could be the most crucial of the season. If the Chiefs win and the Brumbies get a four-try win, the Bulls could go into this match in third spot.
The Stormers will play host and they won’t be doing them any favours. These two have a lot of recent history, and the Stormers winning by more than seven points is not out of the realms of possibility.
If they do go into this game in third spot, a loss by seven or more will see them finish above the Brumbies, but they will need a win or possibly a draw to finish over the Chiefs.
The Cheetahs have the bye this week and will start the round in fifth spot.
It should be a cracker of a round with two contenders needing four-try wins, and the top two teams playing away games in local derbies needing wins to secure their positions on the ladder.
Way I see things panning out is:
67: Bulls
66: Chiefs
64: Brumbies
61: Crusaders
58: Reds
54: Cheetahs
Preliminary finals:
Brumbies to beat Cheetahs
Crusaders to beat Reds
Semi-finals:
Chiefs to beat Brumbies
Bulls to lose to Crusaders
Final:
Chiefs to beat Crusaders
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
They are going to tank the game. Only possible way they will try to win is if the Hurricanes somehow beat the Crusaders and 4th spot is up for grabs. If you think about an away game versus the Brumbies and a potential away semi against the Chiefs who they have a great record against versus an away game versus the Crusaders and possibly the Bulls right after that, it doesn't take a genius to figure out which is the easier route.
atlas
Guest
KiwiDave you could be on the money re Reds team to face Waratahs Genia and Horwill rested, with injuries Reds skipper Horwill has a calf strain while vice-captain Genia is suffering from a knee cartilage injury as well as a fractured bone in his left hand. Give Quade Cooper another chance at captain, minus Genia makes it more difficult for him.
atlas
Guest
what a clause! as an HR man this astounds me Highlanders - Jamie Joseph: Contract clause keeps Highlanders coach in job as poor season sparks player exodus at under-performing southern franchise. . . . the Highlanders' coach negotiated a clause into his contract before agreeing to take the job at the end of 2010 that states he cannot be fired because of the on-field performance of his team. The Dunedin-based franchise was so eager to lure the former Highlanders and All Blacks loose forward from his job coaching the Wellington ITM Cup team that the clause was accepted. Highlanders record 14th placed 3 wins Yellow/red cars give them the worst discipline of any team in the competition
Gavin Melville
Roar Pro
Top work, KiwiDave. Good analysis. The stand-out game here is the Stormers v The Bulls. The Stormers have won their last four, hosting the Bulls, who have won their last nine. Yeah, the Bulls had a wobbly one last week, but they still won. If they win @ Stormers and get to stay at home all playoffs, then you could put your mortgage on them. Home advantage (or non long-range travel) is huge for these guys As Felix says "their tight 5 are a juggernaut". That's what you want in the play-offs. See what the BIL did to the Wallabies recently with their power. The Crusaders give it a flip, Cooper's Reds could have a go - but only if they get quality ball. Biggest danger to the Bulls I see is the Brumbies - won their last 3, beat the BIL. They've got the hard discipline & mantal edge needed to win one-off post-season games. The big doubt for them is - can they re-start after their lay-off?
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
i Think Richie will be in the 23 when finals come around. He has been getting his fitness up this last month. Just needs the game time but champions like him can hit the ground running very quickly
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
L'Equipe reporting Ali Williams at Toulon after the SR season.
Kuruki
Roar Guru
They are the only side i can see doing it. There pack is a match for the Bulls and so is their tactical kicking. All their big guns are now firing, Dagg, Read, Carter, Whitelock. Will be an epic game with both sides struggling to get up the next week against the Chiefs woohooo.
Wal
Roar Guru
The Crusaders this year has all been about mental application, they have switched off at various times, but when they have been on they have been devastating. If they stay focused a brilliant effort is going to be required to best them. A bit of emotion might come into it as well. The very popular Robbie Fruean has had to go back in and have a heart valve replaced (something he had done in his late teens). Carters musings on Twitter say as much. And what is with the 1st 5's in NZ at the moment. Cruden has been outstanding all season, Injury free Slade has shown what he is truly capable of, Barrett is a stand out for a faltering hurricanes and Fatherhood obviously agrees with Dan Carter his play over the last few weeks should be bound and distributed as to how you play rugby.. past it wish I was that past it. Add a particular Benji to Auckland and we might have a 5 of a kind that would put Jamie Packer out of business. Just to round out a huge weekend for the flatlanders one R. McCaw makes his comeback via Christchurch rugby club his first match for the club in over 5 years. and is still an outside chance to feature in the finals. Now where did I put my eye patch.
Tui
Guest
Thats a big call, I mean the Crusaders beating the Bulls in Pretoria
atlas
Guest
lots of players playing their last games for a franchise this weekend, off overseas or changing for next year a few in the NZ rumour dept, including Julian Savea and Beauden Barrett are both off contract with Hurricanes - both linked to Kirwan's Blues. Savea a handy replacement for Ranger (France), Barrett . . .not so sure, though his brother Kane (already in Blues) may be an influence Colin Slade to return to Crusaders as Dan Carter is not playing Super rugby in 2014 (no rugby at all, turned down Euro/UK/Japna offers - having 6mths off as per McCaw). Yet another loss for Highlanders (Jamie Mackintosh to Cjhiefs, and overseas: Tamati Ellison, Kade Poki, Hosea Gear. And McCaw back playing rugby for his club, Christchurch, this weekend, against University in the Canterbury Metro competition. Hurricane Jason Eaton has played his last NZ game already it seems; Hammett never wanted to re-sign him back in the Hore/Nonu/Weepu times and now has the last laugh by leaving him out of the squad altogether before he heads to Japan. Thanks for those 80+ Hurricanes matches Jason.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
If he comes back to NZ and develops another crop of players like Carter, McCaw and Read then he is welcome.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Bulls have been a major force since 2006. They finished in the semis in 2006, won it in 2007, 2009 and 2010
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
The Bulls are very tough to roll at home but the Crusaders have really ramped things up and are far and away the stand out team in the competition at the moment. Will be tough for them to win the final if they have to travel to SA and back to NZ. Look at what happened to the Sharks last year who come final time looked jaded with all the travel. The Bulls have just been doing enough of late and were lucky to scrape past the Sharks.
atlas
Guest
i read that Christchurch's mayor has resigned, or not trying for re-election as I have rarely understood a word Deans has said, this is possibly an option - politics, where the art of double-speak, and talking but not saying anything, is encouraged? he referred to rugby as 'this industry', maybe politics could be sport?
mania
Guest
agree BBA - of the teams in the past only saders are consistent enough to beat the bulls at home. though this season i'd also reckon if brumbies can survive the travel then they have the game plan to counter the bulls. all comes down to who has the biggest most accurate kicker to pin the oppn within their half. hands down daggs got the biggest kick but then mogg. however saders have carter as well, who always tends to make a difference.
BBA
Guest
Agree, that if the Bulls finish top they will be extremely difficult to dislodge at their Loftus fortress. Despite the Crusaders poor semi-final record there, the Crusaders are still the team that I think is most likely to be able to win there, and would probably be the team the Bulls would least prefer to meet there. The Cheetahs have the next best chance of being able to win a playoff game at Loftus. Cant see any other team winning there. (Not saying that either the Crusaders or Cheetahs chances are good, just a lot better than the other teams)
mania
Guest
peterlala - yeah i know, but i think after deans tenure there even christchurch wouldnt have him back
peterlala
Guest
mania, I figured as much...I was having a dig.
riccardo
Guest
Nice analysis Dave. My only real question mark would be the Bulls who are notoriously difficult to dislodge at Loftus and who are playing a pretty decent brand of rugby this year. I'm disappointed for the Blues but encouraged by what we saw in their 1st season under the two sirs; they will figure next year.
felix
Guest
Yes I hate to agree ABC but the bulls keep the tightest game plan in the comp at home,their tight 5 are a jugenaught as a unit,so much so they dont need an 8th man for the wrestling game they play,dont forget the bulls backline is always willing to run if the opportunity is there,Saders wont have it all their way at loftus,having said all that I still want stormers to finish above the sharks on the log,Go Stormers!! Hahahaha,yeah maybe next year.