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It’s the final round of Super Rugby and while the six finalists have been sorted out, where they will finish all comes done to a this cracking set of games.
Some red hot local derbies will round out the season.
The week should start out with a try-fest. The Crusaders have not ruled out the possibility of actually winning the New Zealand conference, but they need to notch a four-try bonus point win to have any chance of that.
Given the way they dismantled the Chiefs last week and the poor defence shown by the Hurricanes, which saw them leak 49 points to the Highlanders, they would be strongly favoured to achieve this.
The outcome of this game will in many ways decide the picture for the rest of the weekend. With a bonus-point win they will put the pressure on the conference-leading Chiefs. A win of any sort and the Reds will lose any chance of a home final. A loss and the Reds will be playing for fourth spot.
Rebels and the Highlanders square off next and the Highlanders have been playing well of late. The Rebels themselves have a lot of players leaving, not least James O’Connor, so they should be up for it. This could be an entertaining encounter if the Highlanders bring the same type of game they did against Wellington
Next it’s the Blues and Chiefs. The Chiefs could find themselves behind the Crusaders on the overall standings going into this game or they could already have the New Zealand conference wrapped up.
The Chiefs could finish anywhere from fourth to first. A win will guarantee a top two spot. A loss by seven or less will guarantee them the New Zealand conference.
With an extra day to prepare and playing an injury-hit Blues team back from South Africa after losing their finals chance last week, they are favourites.
Next up is the Waratahs and Reds. This game is the most interesting of the round for me. The question lies around the intensity that the Reds will bring. Should the Crusaders win they face two prospects:
If they win or lose by seven or less they finish fifth, and will most likely be off to Christchurch to face a rampaging Crusaders outfit. If they lose by more than seven, they will finish sixth and face the likely prospect of an away game against the Brumbies.
As a coach, I know which one of those two games looks more desirable and you might find McKenzie rests a number of his stars and tank this game.
The Force then host the Brumbies and the Brumbies will know whether they are playing for top spot or a potential top two finish. Should the Chiefs win then they can finish second at best. That is if they secure a bonus point win and the Stormers beat the Bulls by more than seven
If the Chiefs lose a win will lock a top two spot but the slim chance of top spot will still exist with a bonus point win.
With the likelihood of a Chiefs win, this game could turn into a tryfest as they try to notch a top two spot.
The Sharks and Kings will square off and hats off to the Kings for a great debut season. The Sharks will be favoured to win here. The Kings are likely to finish last but they have put in some great performances for a debut season. When they become the Lion Kings next season they should improve further
The last game of the round and it could be the most crucial of the season. If the Chiefs win and the Brumbies get a four-try win, the Bulls could go into this match in third spot.
The Stormers will play host and they won’t be doing them any favours. These two have a lot of recent history, and the Stormers winning by more than seven points is not out of the realms of possibility.
If they do go into this game in third spot, a loss by seven or more will see them finish above the Brumbies, but they will need a win or possibly a draw to finish over the Chiefs.
The Cheetahs have the bye this week and will start the round in fifth spot.
It should be a cracker of a round with two contenders needing four-try wins, and the top two teams playing away games in local derbies needing wins to secure their positions on the ladder.
Way I see things panning out is:
67: Bulls
66: Chiefs
64: Brumbies
61: Crusaders
58: Reds
54: Cheetahs
Preliminary finals:
Brumbies to beat Cheetahs
Crusaders to beat Reds
Semi-finals:
Chiefs to beat Brumbies
Bulls to lose to Crusaders
Final:
Chiefs to beat Crusaders
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.