Sydney’s loss to Collingwood on Saturday night, and Fremantle’s record thumping victory over the GWS Giants could have huge ramifications in regards to who finishes where at the end of the season.
The Sydney Swans were, without doubt, disappointing as Collingwood avenged a Round 9 defeat at the MCG by delivering a 29-point masterclass at ANZ Stadium on Saturday night.
Nobody saw that result coming especially as the Swans had won their last six matches in succession and had also beaten Collingwood the last two times (after previously losing eleven in a row dating back to 2006).
Additionally, they kicked the first four goals of the game, and against the Swans no other team would have been able to come back from such a deficit, unless you are Fremantle (who pulled back a similar deficit to force a draw back in Round 8) or Collingwood (who would do likewise to eventually win here).
John Longmire has blasted his team’s effort as being “lazy”, but what could be to blame for the Swans’ loss?
Surely, the Swans were without their main key personnel in Goodes, Reid, Jetta and ‘LRT’, with none of them assured to return until the finals series begins next month.
But their absences have allowed Longmire to blood some new talent, including Jed Lamb, Tom Mitchell, Dean Rampe, Brandon Jack and Xavier Richards, among many others.
In fact, until the loss to Collingwood, the Swans were unbeaten in the six matches in which Goodes had missed, after he suffered a knee injury in the Round 13 loss to Port Adelaide.
It could also be suggested that the extra work load that the young players have had to take on in the absences of the Swans’ key men, may have also played a role in the loss.
Additionally, the main engine room that was Kieren Jack, Jarrad McVeigh and Dan Hannebery also had a rare off-night, as they were shut down by their Collingwood counterparts led by Dane Swan, Luke Ball and Scott Pendlebury.
One man who did stand out though was Kurt Tippett, and ever since he marked his Swans debut with a very quick goal against Port Adelaide in Round 13, he has not disappointed.
His six goals, two of which put the Swans up by nine points early in the second half, kept the Swans in the contest, but as proven last night, the team cannot over rely on him to kick the majority of their goals.
By losing to the Pies, the Swans missed their best chance possible to retain second place on the ladder – and with a tough final fortnight to come against the Cats and the Hawks, to follow next week’s showdown against St Kilda, the Swans could risk dropping to as low as seventh by the end of the season.
Fremantle are snapping at the heels of the defending premiers in their own bid to clinch the double chance, which would be the first for the club since 2006.
The Dockers must have been aware of the opportunity that may have opened up for them in the wake of the Swans’ loss to Collingwood on Saturday night.
Ross Lyon’s men thrashed Greater Western Sydney by 113 points in the final match of the round to make up some percentage, which could be very crucial in the make-up of the top four teams, on the Swans, and maintain their well-deserved place in the top four.
It was a battle between the best defence in the competition and the worst, and the result came as no surprise as the Dockers piled on 24.13 (157) on a team that had just come off its’ maiden victory for the year.
What was also noticed was that after each Giants’ AFL victory, an interstate trip (and a reality check) has followed.
After defeating the Gold Coast Suns for their maiden AFL victory in Round 7 last year, the Giants copped a 92-point hiding from the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, and will return there this Saturday night on the back of their latest reality check by the Dockers in Perth, which followed last week’s breakthrough victory over Melbourne at home.
The other occasion in which the Giants have lost a match interstate after winning a match was in Rounds 19-20 last year; whereby the Giants lost to fellow AFL babies the Suns on the Gold Coast after defeating Port Adelaide at home.
Kevin Sheedy will coach what will presumably be his final AFL game on the holiday strip in the final round, following his and the Giants’ final home match against Richmond in Round 22.
Quite appropriately, Sheedy’s final “home” match as Essendon coach was against Richmond at the MCG in Round 21, 2007, but that occasion was ruined as his Bombers lost to the Tigers, the club he represented as a player, by 27 points.
Sheedy may not want to hope that history repeats, but at the same time, the Giants may not want to risk yet another omen, as an unlikely victory against the Tigers would have to be backed up by yet another interstate trip.
Anyway, back on topic now and the Dockers’ victory over the Giants shows just how far they have progressed under Ross Lyon.
Lyon will become the first man to take Fremantle to consecutive finals series in its history, after previously becoming the first to take St Kilda to four consecutive finals series (2008-11).
This year will be the sixth consecutive year in which Lyon has coached any team (St Kilda and Fremantle combined) to a finals series, after finishing ninth with the Saints in his first year, in 2007.
Now, Lyon has coached Fremantle to its biggest ever victory in the AFL (113 points), beating the record set by Chris Connolly, under whom the Dockers thrashed Collingwood by 112 points back in 2005.
But the big question many Dockers fans will want answered over the next two months: can Lyon do what he couldn’t at St Kilda and coach the Dockers to their maiden premiership?
Lyon is without doubt the best head coach to have never won a premiership as of yet. He was originally an assistant coach at the Sydney Swans when the club won the 2005 premiership, the club’s first in 72 years.
John Longmire, also an assistant coach when the Swans tasted the ultimate success in 2005, took the same team to last year’s flag in his second year as head coach of the Swans.
Lyon has coached the Saints to three grand finals, but was unsuccessful on each occasion: in 2009 against Geelong, which was lost by two goals, and the 2010 pair against Collingwood, the first of which was drawn and the second a heavy 56-point loss which landed the Pies their first flag in two decades.
Should Fremantle reach their first grand final on the last Saturday in September, Lyon will be hoping that it’s fourth time lucky.
But for the time being Lyon is simply doing his job and that is coaching the Dockers to what will be their most successful season in their history.
The team has a very easy run home, their victory against the Giants was the first of three matches (out of four) in which they will take on the bottom three teams to round out the season. Additionally, there is the final home match of the regular season against Port Adelaide in Round 22.
Fremantle, currently with a 14-1-4 record for the year, only need to win at least one of its’ three remainders (very likely to be all three) to beat its most successful regular season record of 15-7, set by the Chris Connolly-coached class of 2006.
Compare that to the Swans’, who have to take on the top two teams (Hawthorn and the Geelong Cats) in their final two rounds, and the potential is there for the Dockers to overtake the defending premiers and possibly finish the season higher than them.
But as the saying goes, anything can happen in AFL footy. Bring on the final three rounds.
dahawkacup13
Guest
God you're passionate mate, we'll see how long your comment is after the Hawks game on Friday.
Jacksoon
Guest
GET A LIFE- HOW MUCH DRIBBLE DO YOU WANT TO WRITE? UMPIRING DOES NOT AFFECT A MATCH WHEN IT IS A 5 GOAL MARGIN!
Horatio
Guest
I thought the Sydney crowd was disappointing. Saturday night 42K but of course the 4 western Sydney NRL teams all played in western Sydney that weekend (who says the draw isn't fixed) and they drew a total of under 30K in 3 matches but of course the TV ratings would have been big (The 6611 crowd at Penrith was a fantasy on Sunday night of course next time they query GWS crowds)......
Horatio
Guest
Freo had more to complain about when they went to Etihad against Carlton but there is a problem in the AFL with home town bias everywhere - gee it even happened at Victoria park...
Steve J
Roar Guru
Bad umpiring is in the eye of the beer holder
Australian Rules
Guest
I've been known to post a lengthy comment..but...woah
Hamish
Guest
Andrew, if you think that Cloke didn't push Richards, you really are one-eyed. It was the biggest push in the back I'd seen in years and was clearly a free kick against. Then later in the game richards tackles blair who hits the ground shoulder first and is given a free for in the back when it was clearly much less of a push than the first one and gets paid. Those free kicks we got in the first few minutes, we're all there apart from the Maxwell one, which he had no prior opportunity, and it was because we we're first to the ball. And why are you complaining anyway, you won the game, so shut it.
Specks
Guest
One eyed supporters should try not to comment on umpiring bias.
Johnny Howard
Guest
Far out mate, I'll keep my response to a few words. What happened to the 5 or so weeks in the middle of the season when the umpires were letting everything go? I realise they are human and prone to errors, but my intuition suggests that someone spoke to them prior to that awesome 5 week stint and then at the end of that 5 week stint leading to the umps changing back to paying the ticky-touchwood free kicks!
Avatar
Roar Guru
Not to mention that the Swans also played (and thrashed) GWS a second time just recently, in Round 16. That was 12 points guaranteed.
Troy Murray
Roar Rookie
The first thing to note is that the percentage between the Swans and Freo will only come into play if the Swans win their remaining 3 matches. As this would appear extremely unlikely, Freo will almost certainly finish above the Swans. Secondly, the Swans are now likely to finish in 5th position given the draws of those sides vying for the all important top 4 berth. If we discount Essendon, given their current predicament and awful form over the last few rounds, there are 3 sides trying to finish 4th. Sydney will secure this spot if they win 2 of their last 3 rounds. But as 2 of the these games are against Geelong and Hawthorn it is more likely they will win only one. Therefore, if either Pies or Tigers can win their remaining 3 games they would leapfrog the Swans into 4th. As Collingwood play Hawthorn this weekend, this task becomes difficult for them. Richmond, however could realistically win all remaining games and finish with the double chance. Whatever the scenario, the final 3 rounds promise to be fascinating viewing. As we all know, it is almost impossible to win a flag from outside the top 4.
Andrew
Guest
I've just been reviewing the opening of the Sydney game, particularly the first ten minutes, the only part of the game we lost badly, trying to work out why we were so outplayed. We weren't!! We were every bit as good as Sydney from the first bounce! Grundy won the taps and ran beautifully. Our mids were just everywhere, particularly Sidey, and the backs were getting to the contest and covering their blokes. So what went wrong? Simple! The umpiring! It started at the first bounce (actually the first was a dud, and a re-bounce ensued) with a free kick against Pendles who tossed O'Keefe aside and grabbed the ball. Technically it was there but they usually ignore such things, it was clearly the fact that Pendles took possession and was about to launch us forward which caused the ump to call the free. Fine, we can live with that, but the kick forward was perfectly knocked out of Tippet's grasp by Brown, whereupon a free was paid to Tippet for being 'held'. This was a disgrace. Brown does appear to briefly grab Tippet's jumper for a second long before the ball arrives, (I only cede that because the commentator calls it, it simply isn't visible) but one can see no 'stretching', and Tippet was in NO WAY impeded from the contest. He flew for the ball without any impediment whatsoever, and would probably have marked but for Nathan Browns perfectly timed slaopping of the ball. He didn't touch the arms, was fully behind Tippet and Tippet never grasped the ball, it was simply the perfect spoil. Brown's reward was a free against. An absolutely shocking way to start a game, and a foretaste of what was to come. At the next bounce Sydney intercepted and kicked to half forward, Keefe spoils Pike beautifully and a pack develops. Soon after Maxy runs through the pack, gets the ball in hand, but before he can straighten to run away a diving Mumford steals it from his grasp while tackling Maxy around the waist, this results in Mumford having both the ball and our captain, and before Maxy goes to ground his hands are already clear of the ball, which is clearly pinned to him by Mumford who then spins Maxy through around 160 degrees (not 360 as called by Bristle Taylor!) during which time his hands are held above his head making it clear to anyone there he had no part of the ball. Maxwell never fully took possession, and should have been paid a free as he was dragged to the ground without the ball. Mumford actually played it very well as releasing the ball would have made it abundantly clear that he was infringing Maxwell's right to run without the ball. A ball up then, right? Wrong! As Maxy lands we can hear the ump clearly: "Holding the ball Nick, you just let it go! You just let it go, when you put your arms out you're just letting it go" It was a single action! AS he picks the ball up and BEFORE he can get his head up to run the ball is pinned to him. In the ensuing kick to the pocket Brown and Tippet are wrestling, face on, like they were engaging in a waltz, as Tippet turns to the ball Brown's open hand ends up sitting on Tippet's forehead then slips to his shoulder as Tippet opens his arms for a chest mark. He misses completely then turns to the umpire in the same motion with arms in the same position pleading for the free. As the ball has hit another Sydney player and rolled out of bounds, causing a whistle, Tippet believes he has been awarded and moves back to take his kick. He is shocked that the ump has missed this light contact. This could justifiably have been paid, and clearly would have except the ump was out of position and missed it. At the ball in Josh Kennedy clearly blocks McCaffer allowing Jack to run through the pack and snap Sydney's second. A clear infringement, but one not often paid, we can live with that too, but the goal came about as a result of the howling mistake paid against Maxwell. They shouldn't have either. By this point Collingwood appear to be playing well, but bad luck and some bad delivery have allowed Sydney to intercept several forward thrusts. Next bounce. We're only at 17:47, less than 3 minutes into the game. Grundy avoids Mumford's leap and goes for the ball but is grabbed by the neck while attempting to pick up the ground ball and thrown to the ground completely off the ball. Again Kennedy is the offender. Shaw picks up the ball for Sydney but his handball is cut off by JT who handballs to Luke Ball. Ball spots Grundy who has leapt to his feet and running free towards the centre of the 50 M line. He takes the pass and lets fly from just outside the 50. The kick travels beautifully and would have crossed on the full but just to the right of the right hand goal post. Reid is in position at the top of the square and trying to get back to where the ball will land, but Rampe is holding then dragging Reid so he stumbles through the point posts. Richards should mark instead but drops it and it lands at the feet of Cloke between the point posts. By this time Reid is back and Blair has arrived but now the whistle sounds. A free to Rampe!!! Wha...!? How the...?! Whe...? Huh!? The whistle had been very late, Cloke was about to pick up, a score looked imminent. But there was going to be NO Collingwood score. I have looked at they tape 20 times, forward, backward, slow-mo, sped up, you name it! I even went out and bought a Sydney scarf and beanie, came back, put them on, and watched it again. There simply isn't anything Reid does which is even slightly wrong. He is clearly being impeded in his attempt to get to the drop zone. There is a good case for awarding Reid a free, but none whatsoever for Rampe. So play continues with a Bolton kick to the members wing, Grundy is again in perfect position and looks like marking but as he touches the ball he is thrown forward, landing on his knees ten feet away. How did he do that! Rather than completing the mark in perfect upright position he decides to violently throw himself forward. Physics eh? What a strange bitch she is!! Mind you Shane Mumford who was standing behind Grundy might have some clues, but there you go! Soon the ball is going forward again and Jesse White sprays a shot. (Sidebar: I don't mind the idea others have put forward about getting White, he looks a good kid, but if we grab him, let's try to get Aaron Black from North too, imagine!) Anyway, Collingwood clears to the wing but the kick is poor and comes back in to Sydneys far pocket where Brown again executes a perfect spoil from behind Tippet, touching nothing but ball and as both fall to ground Brown skilfully avoids landing on Tippet's back, his chest instead landing harmlessly on Tippet's buttocks. It was very well done, Brown is clearly wary of getting near Tippet, knowing the ump is not with him. Another free to Tippet!!! You have GOT to be kidding me! I have thrown my Sydney merchandise to the ground and am trampling it underfoot while re-donning my Black & White paraphernalia. Where? How? Why? Brown did everything right! They will use this video to teach young back-men how to spoil without infringing. But STILL the poor guy gets another goal scored on him! After his incredible performance against Essendon, Browny is gobsmacked and staring in disbelief, confidence shot to hell. By this time its 19-zip, soon afterwards we take it forward where some brilliant play ends in Lynch having a shot from 30 out, right in front. He just misses. Then Sydney go forward again and Reece Shaw evades a Marley Williams tackle to snap a clever goal. The first they've scored without direct umpire assistance. 25-1 at the 10 minute mark. At this point things seem to change. But not in the play. Collingwood don't suddenly lift, Sydney don't drop. They simply continue as they had been going and a Cloke mark is paid after a brilliant Pendlebury run and kick despite the crowd and Sydney players bleating that Trav pushed Richards and Three Sydney players angrily confront the umpire. They are livid! Both the play and the replay show there was no push, Cloke was simply too strong. During the insane Geischen interview a few months ago when he told the world that he has no knowledge whatsoever of the rules he also repeated ad nauseam that the extension of arms was what umpires want to see before they'll pay a push in a marking contest. This very obviously didn't happen; Cloke's hands were on Richards' back as Richards was falling, but Richards had already lost the contest and was going to ground in hopes of securing the inevitable free against Cloke. In the next passage of play Grundy is thrown to the ground by Mumford at a ball-in, and Caff is clearly held by Jack as he runs after the ball. He is in front and attempting to pick the ball up but can only use one arm as the other is being firmly held by Jack. Neither action elicits a Collingwood free. Soon however Collingwood get their first free kicks of the game for Sydney players infringing. The first is to Beams in the centre for an unmissable push straight in the back, then another is paid to Blair at half-forward after a Malceski arm chop, though Blair nearly loses this as he is called to play on because he ran forward to get the ball...Huh!? Anyway, Blairy gets his kick to the 50 where Richards is holding on to Cloke for dear life, causing Cloke to face Richards and push him away, Richards gets another free! What the...!? The clock is now showing 6:50 left and for the first time a commentator, Richo, says that Collingwood have "at least stopped the momentum now". Which brings me to the other bizarre aspect of the game. From the first bounce Bristle Taylor has been rhapsodizing over the brilliance and superiority of Sydney, explaining all the poor umpiring decisions away and ignoring the missed ones, and simply in raptures over the likes of Tippet and Mumford among others. Mummy is apparently cut from a mountain, bursting out of his jumper, and able to consume vast quantities of reconstituted meat tubes! He says not word one about Grundy, who is clearly killing his hero at this point in just his third outing, it is all Sydney! They are KILLING Collingwood, all OVER Collingwood, demolishing Collingwood. I felt like I was watching a different game! He screamed bloody murder at the incident which caused Collingwood's only goal thus far, but refused to blame the umpire, who was simply unsighted (despite being ten metres away with a perfect view). In fact he claimed that it was "a pity the others didn't help him"! They had called the two Tippet goals as clear free kicks, and claimed Brown was grabbing his jumper on several occasions which he simply wasn't doing! But Cloke's push was apparently so blatant that the only excuse could be the umpires inability to see it. Other commentators offering more realistic views (Richo clearly thought there was no real push and that Richards had been happy to go to ground in order to claim a wrongful free) were pointedly ignored. as Taylor went on and on, talking over his compatriots. Then two minutes later Thomas caught Everitt in a brilliant tackle, where Everitt picked up the ball, looked to give off a pass, fended the approaching Thomas, (who grabbed him regardless), stood in the tackle, and made several attempts at punching the ball while being carried from behind the 50 to past the centre square before JT slammed the far bigger guy to the ground, BT claimed it was "Very similar to the Maxwell one, wasn't it?" It WAS!? How you figure? The entire similarity between the two decisions was that in both cases a free was paid for holding the ball, and that both offenders had the ball pinned to them, that's it! Maxy did NOT fully have control of the ball before it was pinned to him, while Everitt not only had the ball, but was able to perform four different actions with ball in hand before he was finally caught and dumped. What the hell is happening in Taylor's mind!? A second later it became abundantly clear that the answer was absolutely nothing! "Josh Kennedy will get the free as a result of a really...good pressure...act." Then: "Kennedy goes wide and deep..." Josh Kennedy meanwhile was standing about thirty metres away, and Ben Kennedy was not in Collingwood's side at all. OK, clearly Martians have abducted the former Collingwood forward and replaced his brain with Chum liver and onion dog food. Unusual, bizarre, but it happens. The umpiring however has no excuse. It's been mentioned before that a well placed few minutes of one-sided umpiring can affect the outcome of a game. It doesn't have to look obvious to the casual observer, and it doesn't have to show up in any stats as the number of frees can even out over the course of a game. But umpiring is about NOT affecting the flow of a game, and too often we are seeing it do just that. One of the most misunderstood aspects of our game is the mental side, and the effect of momentum. Just one bad decision can swing that momentum and it isn't possible that umpires can not know that. It's happened many times to Collingwood, but one cannot complain when such decisions have cost us a game, it is seen as sour grapes and whining. Very easily dismissed. But when it fails and a team wins despite such things, one can and MUST speak up. I'm not telling you that I know there is a conspiracy by the umpires, or that they are being directed by the AfL or some other external force to affect the outcome of games, I'm merely asking you to LOOK at it far more closely. IS it happening? And if so why and at whose behest? I have my own beliefs, but I'm not going to try to persuade you with clever arguments, just watch for yourself. Certain teams are being well and truly favoured by the AFL, of that there can be no doubt, as some of the tools used are in the public domain, but I think most are unaware of how many weapons can be brought to bear in a bid to engineer results. I also believe that there is something very wrong with the way our game is umpired at the top level. I played the game at all but that level and never once thought an umpire was out to influence a game. Sure I've thought they had it in for me personally many times, but every player does that, and we've all thought the odd umpire is an idiot, but certainly more fool than knave. At AFL level I believe there are knaves, and that those knaves change the results of games on a regular basis. Certainly it isn't an anti-Collingwood thing, in fact I tend to notice it more in other games, the previous weeks Footscray/Sydney clash was the worst recent case, but the second quarter of our game against Essendon contained a spectacularly bad patch, which brought up Essendon's first goal and stole another from Brodie Grundy. Of the few of you still reading, some will no doubt picture me with tinfoil helmet and underground food cache, but at least you're still here. Any of you who can do so are urged to watch the events described above with remote in hand and see what you think. I'll leave it at that as my arm is cramping up now... Jayzuz! Five and a half thousand words! I need a bex and a lie down, but I'm deadly serious!
Andrew
Guest
Anyone could beat anyone else in top 6. It is a good year.
Hamish
Guest
As a Swans supporter, I'm not really that fussed with the difficult finish, as it gives us 2 games of finals like pressure and intensity so we'll be accustomed to it come week 1 of the finals and I'd like to meet Freo in the first week, even if its in Perth, as they'll have come off 3 out of 4 easy games and they won't be fully prepared for a high intensity game, similar to playing Adelaide in the QF away last season with the same finish for us and an easy draw for the crows. Also I'm still confident we'll make the top 4, we currently have a 1.5 game lead over those behind us (Collingwood, Richmond, Essendon) so they would need to win 2 more games than us to jump us on the ladder. And given this weekend, Collingwood play hawthorn, which hawthorn should win, Richmond play carlton, with carlton needing to win to keep any finals chance alive, Essendon (who seem to be shot) playing north melbourne, given the bombers situation, north would be favoured and with the swans playing st kilda, there is every chance we could have top 4 sewn up by next Sunday. If not well if the swans can re-discover their good form, have a chance to beat Geelong at Geelong and Hawthorn at ANZ - if we win one we're fine (if we beat st kilda) if we win 2, then were every chance at going back to back.
blood
Guest
as usual one loss ad everyone writes off the swans.they are a tough unit who had a rare off night..they will bounce back and take care of the saints and cats and top 4 sealed ...they wlll have every chance to defend the flag
Steve J
Roar Guru
It is virtually IMPOSSIBLE for Sydney to slip to 7th given that they will beat the Saints this weekend. In order for them to slip to 7th all 3 of Collingwood, Richmond and Essendon must not lose again. And seeing that Richmond play Essendon in round 23 this cannot happen.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
"the Swans could risk dropping to as low as seventh by the end of the season." WOW. Swans lose a game to team who they've shown a history of not being able to put away and world implosion type possible scenarios appear. The Swans won't drop out of the Top 4. Essendon are done and dusted. Collingwood are too far back and have a really tough draw. Swans will finish 3rd or 4th and I'm sure whoever they are playing will be very very nerous come 1st week of the finals.
Steve J
Roar Guru
I agree with Jetta - he'd need a game or two under his belt, but Goodes just seems to be the type of player that you'd have in and down deep in the forward line regardless. His team would lift to see him on the park I'm sure.
Winston
Guest
One thing I haven't heard people mention is the fact that they had McGlynn back for the first game and Shaw back only for the 2nd game. If they don't bring them back now then it'll be too late. As evident from Saturday, both are underdone and lack match fitness and looked really rusty. They'll be just fine come September I reckon. What I worry about is when they'll bring back Goodes and Jetta. Surely can't bring them back 1st week of finals as that is a recipe for disaster.
Steve J
Roar Guru
A lot of people are bemoaning Freo's soft run. This was there first outing against the Giants in season '13. People forget the Swans opened the season against the Giants (they played GWS twice this year) and then followed up against the Suns. Nice to be guaranteed 8 points to start the season off. Freo have the double chance -there is no ifs or buts about that when they are effectively 2 games clear of 5th with three to go and Melbourne and St Kilda amongst their opponents. What Freo are playing (or praying) for is the double home final. That would rely on Geelong losing one of West Coast, Sydney or Brisbane. I am hoping that the Eagles can do Freo a favour this weekend.