Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and Fremantle. The top four is pretty much locked in stone, and therefore – so the conventional wisdom goes – one of that quartet will bring home the bacon come September.
Why’s this? Well, history says so.
The wise old football prophets have peered into the past and found under the current top eight system no team has so much as made a grand final, let alone pinched a flag, from the bottom half of the eight.
Only two have even progressed to a preliminary final: Hawthorn in 2001, and Collingwood in 2007.
Therefore, no top-four spot, no flag. You can’t argue with history… can you?
The trouble with this accepted wisdom is it’s based on a pretty small set of numbers – we’ve only had the present finals system since the year 2000.
It’s a big call to say this is a pattern that will never be broken, and season 2013 offers the best opportunity yet in two sides hitting form at just the right time.
In Collingwood we’ve got a proven premiership-winning outfit decimated by injury early in the year and only returning to full strength in the back half of the season, while in Richmond we have a young team learning the ropes and clicking together in ominous fashion just in time for finals, with a comprehensive dismantling of flag favourites Hawthorn to their name.
On top of their recent momentum, there’s one crucial factor playing to the advantage of these two teams – they’re both Victorian.
That’s right, I’m going there.
The Vics enjoy a significant advantage when it comes to pinching a flag from outside the top four.
Why? Well, one of the key challenges of finishing fifth to eight is the prospect of having to win not only four games on the trot, but having to do so playing away from home for potentially the entire finals series.
Victorians have a much higher chance of bumping into crosstown rivals, meaning they can enjoy a neutral venue setting, rather than an unfamiliar ground packed with hostile fans.
On top of that, the grand final is a MCG affair, so if the Magpies or Tigers do make it all the way, they might even get a home ground advantage against their opponents.
Imagine if Collingwood lose the rest of their games this year and end up seventh.
Even then, they could potentially play the Tigers in the first week, the Cats week two, Hawthorn in the prelim and then enjoy home ground advantage against Sydney or Freo at the Big Dance.
All four weeks in Melbourne after barely scraping into the eight? Not a bad deal at all.
The flipside of this for Victorian sides is less of an advantage at the top end of the ladder.
Despite dominating the competition all year long, Geelong and Hawthorn are less likely to get home-ground advantage for the majority of the finals series.
But if Sydney or Freo can squeeze into the top two, they’ll get to enjoy a pair of games at their hometown fortresses.
So for at least six teams, there’s still plenty to play for in 2013. Collingwood and Richmond probably won’t get the perfect storm of results needed for the double chance, but they will get a chance to make history.
After all, who wants to win a flag from inside the top four anyway – as history has shown, anyone can do that.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Interesting part about those is that those teams that Adelaide got beaten by 1st place while they were second. I can imagine 3rd beating 2nd is unusual in the Qualifying.
Australian Rules
Guest
good one
Steve J
Roar Guru
Ha - yes top 4! Although West Coast fans are holding out hope for season 2013 Interestingly in 1900 Melbourne won the premiership from 6th place, in an 8 team competition. Every team got to participate in finals from 1898 - 1900
Steve J
Roar Guru
1991 - Hawthorn. Traveled to Subi and beat West Coast in the qualifying final, and then beat them again at Waverley in the Grand FInal. 1993 - Essendon. Traveled to Adelaide ..... oh hang on. They played an away final against Adelaide at the MCG. Very lucky for the bombers to be gifted that (and again against West Coast in 1996) So just 1991 then, and it was the last hurrah of one of the great teams in the Hawks of that era
Australian Rules
Guest
haha right you are...
TomC
Roar Guru
I'm not convinced that being a Victorian team is such a big advantage. I understand the logic, but it seems like non-Victorian teams are more capable of winning finals interstate. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think a Victorian team has ever won the premirship after travelling interstate during the finals series, whereas several non-Victorian teams have done it.
Max Opray
Roar Rookie
Sooner or later Steve, it will happen. There are so many variables at play - injuries, momentum, how particular teams match up against one another. Look at 2007 - Collingwood finished sixth, yet made it all the way to the prelim to lose to Geelong by five points, who went on to demolish Port by over 100. Could have easily had not just a grand finalist from the bottom half of the eight that year, but a premier.
Max Opray
Roar Rookie
Wow, that's quite a run of results, and absolutely agree that you'd back it to continue on this year. Around 2006 though I remember there was talk that the week's break was actually a bad thing as teams would be off their game come the prelim final - there was a run of teams who lost their qualifying finals but ended up premiers (West Coast 2006, Sydney 2005, Brisbane in 2003). That theory can obviously be put to bed now, but it goes to show that recent patterns aren't always a great indicator of the future. Also at the end there I take it you meant to ask if a GF team would come from outside the top four, not the eight... although if there was ever a year a team would win it from ninth, this'd be the one!
Max Opray
Roar Rookie
Glad you liked that bit, especially as it wasn't in the article - I used Collingwood as an example ;) Agree that Richmond would be a very, very long shot, but have won eight of their last ten and should win the next three. Hawthorn certainly wouldn't want to bump into them come finals time - the last two times they've played the Tigers have belted them by 40 plus points.
Steve J
Roar Guru
I think the double chace has almost guaranteed that a top 4 team will win. In 1999 Carlton made the GF from 6th place, but only after losing initially to Brisbane (3rd). Which nowadays would mean season over. Unless the AFL reverts back to a system like that, where the two lowest placed losers get eliminated each week and some teams get a lucky second chance (in Carlton's case playing an away final against West Coast at the MCG), then the premier and GF teams will keep coming from the top 4. Since we've had the top 4 double chance a premier has never come from outside the top 4. I doubt this will change soon.
Yank Paul
Guest
Sooner or later, someone outside the top four will win a flag. The odds favor it. Will it be this year? No way to know. The double chance allows the "playing of favorites" (if you will), but that doesn't guarantee a top four team will win. Look at American sport leagues. Underdogs manage to win championships every so often, it's bound to happen in the AFL eventually.
Steve J
Roar Guru
You have to go back to 2006 to find a team that made the grand final that was not a winner of either the first or second qualifying final. That was West Coast - and they lost the first qualifying final to Sydney, but still made it through to beat Sydney in the GF. So it's not just finishing top 4 that counts, but winning a qualifying final. In fact since 2006 only twice has the GF not been played between teams that finished 1st or 2nd - last year when Adelaide fell short and in 2010 when the Saints snuck in. Why is this? Simple - First week momentum and home final are huge and the weeks break while your opponent is in a sudden death struggle are massive advantages. Not to mention that you've obviously played well enough to be top 2 anyway. Will a GF team come from outside the 8? Not this year, unless Sydney slips to fifth
Australian Rules
Guest
I especially enjoyed the part about Richmond beating (in this order) Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney in progressive finals.
Jacksoon
Guest
C'mon Richmondfor the GF? think people have gotten ahead of themselves with the tigers this year. Congrats on finally playing an elimination final, but dont expect too much