I wrote an article last week casting severe doubt on whether the Sydney Swans had the ability to go back to back this year.
The Swans had been outmuscled at their own game in recent weeks and a few of their key players had been down on form.
When Rhyce Shaw, Nick Smith, Dan Hannerbury and Kurt Tippett were ruled out last Friday, I feared that the Hawks could demolish Sydney and further dent a side already down on confidence. I was regretting my decision to travel out to Homebush.
Instead, I emerged from ANZ Stadium with a renewed sense of belief and a quiet confidence that Sydney can go very close to repeating last season’s heroics.
The Hawks fielded a near full strength side, Cyril Rioli being the only notable omission. The Swans fielded four players in their rookie season, one of whom was making his debut.
Their defensive resources looked very thin against arguably the most potent and dangerous forward line in the competition. This, combined with perfect football conditions, suggested to me that the Hawks could pile on a cricket score.
From the first bounce the Swans appeared hungry, enthusiastic and determined to win the one percenters. Their superstar midfield was leading by example. Keiran Jack, in particular, was enormous.
The Swans tackle count was up, they were winning the contested footy and distributing the ball effectively; a stark contrast to their performance at Simmonds Stadium six days earlier.
Most encouragingly, they kicked 16 goals without Tippett, something that has seemed impossible since his arrival on the scene.
The Swans dominated the contest for the first three quarters and the statistics that matter most to coaches. Although the Swans didn’t win, they shouldn’t be discouraged, instead approaching this week’s rematch with a real sense of confidence. They have appeared to have rediscovered their mojo.
The Swans have far greater upside than the Hawks do leading into Friday night. Arguably the Swans’ two most influential players this season, Daniel Hannerbury and Kurt Tippett, will return. Nick Smith will bring stability to the defensive unit. Most exciting of all Lewis Jetta should make his return. He is the X-factor the Swans have been so desperately craving.
On the flip side, Cyril Rioli’s return is almost certainly cancelled out by Lance Franklin’s omission, following his brain fade last weekend. Buddy is a big game player but his game is littered with ill discipline and it could cost the Hawks the premiership this season.
‘Cheer, cheer the red and the white’ will be echoing around the home of football after the final siren on Friday night.
Cat
Roar Guru
Sydney looked tired and shot.
Cat
Roar Guru
Rioli may be out, did not train.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Nick Smith certainly in underrated. He is awesome and his contributions are subtle but of great affect.
Cat
Roar Guru
Sydney out in straight games, that's my prediction but I'd love nothing more then seeing the hawks lose.
Swanny
Guest
Yeah, I actually reckon both Sydney and Freo are great chances next week. Will be tipping the Swans and would have tipped Freo if it was at Etihad. We can only hope these two sides spoil the AFL's victorian party.
Matt
Guest
I'm sure you said the same thing before a certain Saturday in September last season Glen, and we know what happened then :P I certainly expect it to be much tighter contest in the middle with Bailey back, and noone can doubt that Hawks deserve to be solid favourites. But if the Swans turn up with the right attitude, then they can certainly match it with the Hawks, and an upset isn't off the cards. Looking forward to Nick Smith keeping Rioli or Paddlepopolo very quiet though - he is one of the most underated defenders in the competition. Whatever happens, hopefully the game is as entertaining as last friday or last year's GF!
Matt
Guest
Noone is thinking that Glen - it's perfectly acceptable though for a supporter to be optimistic, as the writer has been. Not every column has to be unbiased, especially on a website like theroar.
glen
Guest
Yep Bailey,Sewell and Rioli will make a huge difference,Spangher looked out of his depth at times ( bit slow not up to afl speed and pressure ) but Bailey is mobile and often grabs one or two goals each game.You Swans fans can rest your laurels on your re-inclusions but come game time the Hawks will serve up roast a la swan !
David
Guest
I hope Sydney coachs also under estimate Bailey Height 206 cm Weight100 kg with a big reach and is mobile against Pyke Height 201 cm Weight104 kg Mumford Height198 cm Weight104 kg Last Friday Pyke and Mumford rucked for long periods against utility player Spangher Height195 cm DOB23-04-1987Weight96 kg Should be a more even contest this week
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
I as well am feeling a renewed sense of optimism. Sydney's inclusions for this week's game are more significant than Hawthorn's and with Buddy being suspended, that will make life easier for the defence. I still feel Tippett is a double-edged sword for the Swans. They showed last week they don''t need him to kick a big score and in his absence the midfielders improved their work rate with Luke Parker getting forward from stopages and kicking three goals. They have to ensure they don't go to him too often when attacking otherwise Gibson will have a field day as third man spoiler. If the Swans are to win, the match will need to replicate last year's GF. The swans will need to apply relentless tackle pressure, take just about every opportunity and hope Hawthorn misses a few of their own.
Matt
Guest
I hope your right Grant. My confidence is certainly renewed after a much better performance at ANZ. But we will still have to go up several notches to beat the Hwks down there at the G - it is their home ground and they play it better than most. We need to again dominate in the middle, but we can't afford not to make our dominance pay (like we did on friday). When you dominate so much of the game like we did, you really need to be further than a couple of goals up coming intothe last. The thing that gives me the most hope is that getting back the three gimmes (Smith, Tippett & Hanners) will allow us to leave out the two guys - Cunningham and BJ, who really had little influence on the game on Friday night. That should be a big plus for us - especially as Hannebery is brilliant at stepping up in finals, and Nick Smith will take care of one of their small forwards (maybe Paddlepopolo - I don't know how to say or spell his name, so that's whatI call him!). With tippett coming back, it's all important that the swans don't focus too much on him and use a good spread of goalkickers. But as David said, Hawks have some big names to come back, and will no doubt play a lot better on Friday.The swans will need to lift significantly again. But with the excellent showing of Kennedy and Mumford on Friday, it is promising signs that the big names are going to lift for finals. I really do think Friday is as good as do or die for the Swans this season. If we win and get a home prelim, we will be in the box seat to make the GF, and we know we can win on that one day in September. Lose, and I think we will run out of puff and probably get done in the Prelim final (probably against the cats). Carn you Swannies! Should be a cracker on Friday night :)
glen
Guest
Typical one eyed Sydney column writer,the Hawks will be better this week as finals footy brings out the best in any team.If you think Sydney are home and hosed think again sunshine,don't start celebrating yet.
Grant
Guest
I accept that Guerra gives the Hawks a lot of penetration from their defensive 50 but do not subscribe to the theory that Max Bailey is a big inclusion for the Hawks. I expect Mumford and Pyke to dominate the hit outs, notwithstanding his presence. Perhaps I will be proven wrong.
David
Guest
You forgot two big out for the Hawks Bailey and Guerra. Bailey is very important to Hawthorns structure and Guerra the best kick coming out of defence. Bailey not playing allowed Sydney to dominate hit outs which gave Sydney mids a big advantage to get first use of the ball at stoppages which put Hawthorn under pressure. Sydney also tagged a few players including Smith and Mitchell, Hawthorn chose no to reveal their strategy. Sydney prime movers can expect some company on Friday Night. Should be a good game.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
We have dreamed the same dream. Now let the dream come true.