With the finals series set in stone for 2013 the attention now turns to who will win the AFL Premiership.
18 teams have been narrowed down to eight, and by the end of this week only six will remain.
While the premiership will be won by the best team in the finals series – and on the big day – no one has mentioned some of the poor records or hoodoos some teams have in regards to opposition teams and venues.
To me, this will play a pivotal role in who wins the premiership as some sides will dread certain scenarios in the race to the grand final.
Take Hawthorn – the minor premiers – for instance.
Since they defeated Geelong in the 2008 grand final, they have lost every single match against the Cats since winning the Premiership.
With the streak at 11 matches, Hawthorn would want to avoid playing Geelong in the final series.
While it could give the team plenty of incentives to defeat the streak, it could also play on the team’s mind in an important match.
Geelong also has a losing streak of their own against Collingwood since the two met in the 2011 grand final.
In the three meetings between the two since 2011, Collingwood has won all of them including a six-point win earlier this year.
They’d fancy their chances against the Cats if they got an opportunity to play them.
To complete this triangle, Collingwood have a poor record against Hawthorn with the Magpies losing their last five matches against the Hawks.
In fact, since the preliminary final in 2011, Collingwood haven’t defeated the Hawks.
So to summarise, in this AFL game of rock, paper and scissors, Collingwood beats Geelong, Geelong beats Hawthorn and Hawthorn beat Collingwood.
Last year’s premier, the Sydney Swans, broke two hoodoos last season to win the Premiership.
The first was beating Collingwood in Sydney at ANZ Stadium and the second was winning at the MCG.
Against Collingwood at ANZ Stadium they are one from seven in matches against the Magpies.
While they may avoid Collingwood at the Olympic Stadium again, they will have to win at the MCG, which has become a problem for the Swans in previous years.
In their last 15 matches at the MCG, Sydney has one won four times which is hardly convincing at the ground.
Sydney will have to beat someone at the MCG this season, and like the grand final last year, they will have to break their poor record at the ground in order to win.
Another team who struggles at the MCG and Melbourne in general is Fremantle.
If you take Fremantle’s win against Geelong at the MCG last season away from the calculations, it doesn’t make for pretty reading.
Neither does their record against the other teams in the top four.
Fremantle hasn’t beaten Hawthorn away from home since 2001 with the Dockers not beating Sydney at the SCG since 2011 and are 4 from 16 in Sydney in their history.
Finally, the Dockers are 2 from 15 against Geelong in Victoria and haven’t beaten the Cats at Kardinia Park since 2005 which will be venue for this weekend’s qualifying final.
Fremantle also haven’t won a preliminary final in their history, which will need to be broken for them to stand a chance of winning the grand final.
They will have to break some records to win through to their first grand final.
As for the final three, Port Adelaide, Richmond and Carlton also have hoodoos to battle if they are to progress in the finals.
For starters, Richmond will play their first finals series in 12 years after last playing in the final in 2001.
While they have a good record against Carlton in the finals, the Blues have the wood over the Tigers in the last few matches.
In the last 11 matches, Carlton has won ten of them, with Richmond winning their only match at the start of the year.
They will have to break that trend again like they did earlier in the season in order to progress to the next round.
If they do that, they may play Sydney or Hawthorn.
While they have won their last two matches against the Hawks, the Tigers have a poor record in Sydney.
They haven’t defeated the Swans in Sydney since 2004 and have only won twice since the start of the millennium.
The Tigers face a tough task to progress to the preliminary final.
As for Carlton, they have never won a final away from Melbourne in their history.
If they were to defeat Richmond, and face Sydney in the semi-final, they would face the prospect of never winning a final in the state.
The same applies to Hawthorn if they were to face them in the semi-final.
Carlton has lost their last 10 matches to the Hawks and hasn’t defeated them since 2005.
The Blues haven’t also beaten the Hawks since 1987 in a final when they went on to win the grand final.
The Blues will have to break some major hoodoos if they are to even make the preliminary final.
It’s the same for Port Adelaide who faces an almost impossible task of making the preliminary final, let alone the grand final.
Port Adelaide hasn’t beaten Collingwood in Melbourne since 2007, and has not won a final in Melbourne since defeating the Kangaroos in 2005.
The Power has also failed to defeat the Magpies in their two finals meetings in their history.
If they manage to get past the Magpies, the Power faces two stern tests in either Fremantle or Geelong.
Against the Cats, they haven’t defeated them in Melbourne since 2007 and have only won twice in Victoria in their history against Geelong.
In regards to the Dockers, Port hasn’t beaten Fremantle since 2008 and struggled against them only two weeks ago in their Round 22 clash.
Fremantle are also unbeaten at home in finals since Essendon won their first ever finals clash at Subiaco in 2003.
So heading into the finals series, each team has a hoodoo or a poor record to shake if they are to be successful.
The great thing is one of these teams will have to break these shackles to win this year’s Premiership.
The team who can ultimately do that will win the grand final.
Let the games begin.
Justin.O
Guest
Hawthorn and Freo dereve to be in the grand final. Teams like freo bring hardness and presure to their games. The Hawks have heas of stars. So what a grand final. Teams like Collingwood bring softness to the game and ever since Buckley took over they got softer. Buckley is coach who can't coach. Eddie will have egg on his face as long Nathan stays coach Collingwood will never win a final. Malthouse shafted Buckley in biggest blunder in Collingwoods proud history.!!!! Eddie has srewed up here totally and set the Magpies back 20 years. Fremantleon the other hand play a fantastic game there presure against Sydney was 2nd to none. Thats how other teams should strive to play like. Nathan Buckley will send the Colli ngwood fooball club backwards and they will be a basket case worse than Melbourne. If Eddie really cares about his beloved Magies he will sack Buckley straight after the grand final!!!!!!!!
Tony N
Guest
On another note now that we have a couple of hoodoo's broken - what has Buckley done that Malthouse couldn't have - I don't see Buckley as being able to generate anything different. To me the move is a failure which should be laid squarely at the feet of "Eddy Everywhere" who also has been in the wars this year and looks like he's run his race.......
Steve J
Roar Guru
Freo have played Hawthorn at the MCG once in their history - no hoodoo there. Freo v Geelong in their last 6 matches its 3 a piece - no hoodoo there Carlton are Freo's whipping boy It's 3 a piece for Sydney and Freo in their last 6 It's 4 a piece Richmond v Freo in the last 8 6-1 Freo's favour for last 7 v Power It's 6-4 Collingwood from the last 10 Can't see a hoodoo there. Generally Freo get to play once or twice a year at the G, we're 3-4 from our last 7 outings there. Again, no real hoodoo.
Balthazar
Guest
But Southernaussies 5 from 5 still means they beat everyone they were scheduled to play. that is a 100% record. That you might not respect the teams is irrelevant; we don't control the scheduling. You cannot take a record like that and say they "struggle.. in Melbourne in general". That doesn't make sense. Nor is it sensible to discard Etihad when you made a broad point that we struggle in Melbourne. Etihad is a lot closer to the Melbourne CBD than Geelong or Tassie. Oh and Geelong is an outlier? Why? I could equally say that Freo has won 2 out of its last 3 finals. In fact it is the 2010 final (when a significant majority of our players had never played at the MCG before that game) that is the real outlier. See, that's the thing with statistics. And how on earth is it a "fact" that the win against Geelong is a one-off victory? You may have a crystal ball but the rest of us see a team that has played them twice in finals and won one. As I said the H and A stats between Freo and Geelong are also pretty even, something that you ignore
Connor
Guest
Geelong's only "hoodoo" really is beating Collingwood, since they havent done it since for 2 years. And if Geelong win on Saturday they wont have to play collingwood. So your article is not 100%, geelong can win it without overcoming their hoodoo. Also, who the hell is Freo's bogey team?
Gezza
Guest
What were we thinking? I'll ask the AFL to put the Cup in an overnight bag and sent it to Freo - should be there by Friday!
Daws
Guest
+1 Balthazar, still happy for everyone to write us off however. Makes victories like the MCG final last year all the more satisfying.
Mango Jack
Guest
"In relation to the Sydney record at the MCG. One win was against Hawthorn" Yes, and that one happened to be the grand final, which proves more than any other stat that they are capable of winning there when it matters.
Mango Jack
Guest
So who'e the hoodoo guru here?
Shane Jones
Roar Guru
Thanks for the comments guys. It was meant to attract conversation, as it has done. Now to the responses. For starters, while the article title says hoodoos, I do mention poor record in the article 5 times. I wasn't just referring to a hoodoo. Of course every team has to break a record to win a grand final. I was merely stating that as I believe it will become a major player in Fremantle's title bid. In relation to the Etihad record. Yes, you have won your last 5 under Lyon but they have been against Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne and St Kilda. 1 team played finals (North), another got in by default (Carlton), and the other three were bottom 8 teams. Fremantle should be winning those matches. The other thing is this record means nothing because no matches will be played at Etihad Stadium. The reason I took the Geelong victory out last year was the fact that it was a 'one off victory' It's been your only victory away from home in the AFL Finals and the Dockers played out of their skin that night. That's not to say it will happen again, it was the fact that the result was an outlier on all their previous results. Thanks Gene for the other statistic. That should have been here. In relation to the Sydney record at the MCG. One win was against Hawthorn, one was against Collingwood and the others were against Melbourne in 2013 and Richmond in 2009. That's hardly convincing for a team who wants to go back to back and may have to win twice to win the title. I added the Collingwood statistic because they broke the hoodoo last year to win the Grand Final.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Apart from also Carlton. But their not important lets be honest...
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Interesting proposition. But not enough of them, barring Hawks v Geelong, have lasted long enough. Swnas have played at MCG better since last year so...
Matt F
Roar Guru
Absolutely. It's a better "hoodoo" than those mentioned in the article. That said, our record against the Top 4 wasn't too flash last season either (1 win and 3 losses.) Admittedly it was better than this season
Cat
Roar Guru
but then you could include Sydney's 0 wins against top 4 sides this year.
Matt F
Roar Guru
It's a bit of stretch to call some of these genuine hoodoos. From the Swans perspective, our 4 wins from 15 at the MCG also becomes 3 wins from our past 4 which completely turns that hoodoo on its head. Even our Collingwood hoodoo can easily be spun into us having beaten the Pies in 2 of our last 3 matches.
Avatar
Roar Guru
Although there are many hoodoos to be broken this finals series, I still think the Grand Final will be between the Geelong Cats and Hawthorn, and that would provide a perfect platform for Hawthorn to finally end that so-called "Kennett curse". But I still think the Cats will win for the fourth odd year in a row and continue their dominance of the Hawks. You also forgot to mention one thing - Sydney have not beaten Hawthorn since last year's Grand Final!
Balthazar
Guest
I'm sorry but this is a pretty disappointing analysis of my team (Freo) Freo have an excellenet record post-Ross Lyon in Melbourne. They are usually shunted to Etihad where they have won all of their 5 games under Lyon. They rarely play at the MCG. Ignoring the St Kilda game for obvious reasons - they had previously won 2 and lost 2 there since Lyon started coaching. I haven't checked the other interstate teams but I would guess that is the best record, or close to the best, of all of them. And why would you take away from your analysis their most significant match there recently - a finals win against Geelong? Freo have good recent records against both the Swans and Geelong. Pretty even win loss records. Not beaten the Swans at the SCG since 2011? Oh, OK, they won in 2011, lost last year and drew this year. As I said, pretty even And Hawthorn? When is the last time Freo played them anywhere other than Tassie, the longest trip in Football? I think it was 2010, in a final in Perth. Freo won that. You also say that Freo haven't won a preliminary final in their history but you might have mentioned that they've only played in one. And of course every team has to break records to win their first grand final.